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Insights into the Gold & Bullion market

Over the past two years, gold prices have been underpinned by strong physical demand from China and central banks. However, investor flow, and specifically retail-focused ETF building, resident- its easing cycle on September 18, the Fed projected 50 basis points of rate reduction by year's end and a full percentage point of decreases the following year.

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During times of global instability and low interest rates, gold is typically favoured as an
investment. The U.S. presidential election on November 5th may possibly lead to a further
increase in gold prices, as investors may seek safe-haven assets due to possible volatility in
the markets.


Global Factors Impacting the Gold Rally
Gold has been the best-performing asset class in 2024, rising around 30% in international
markets and 22% in domestic markets with prices surpassing the $2700/oz (~ Rs 76400)
mark. The global central banks’ ongoing gold purchases, the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts,
the geopolitical unpredictability of the world’s markets, the slowdown in the Chinese
economy, and the recent monetary stimulus measures taken by the Chinese central banks
are all responsible for the strong performance.

1) Central Bank Buying
This year’s central bank gold demand is probably being influenced by the gold price
increase, but the long-term pattern of net purchasing is still in place. Total gold holdings
added by central banks around the world from January to July is around 520 tonnes. Turkey,
India and Poland have been the top buyers, while the Philippines and Thailand are the net
sellers.

2) FED rate cut cycle
Even if inflation is still high, gold is still in a favourable position as the Federal Reserve
cuts interest rates to support a contracting labour market. After a 50-bps rate cut and a
warning that rates may drop to 3% by 2026. It’s evident that the Fed is relaxing, which is
good news for yellow metal. With central banks all over the globe starting to lower
interest rates, gold is still the primary hedge against currency devaluation on a
worldwide scale.

3) Gold CFTC positioning
Due to the ongoing rate-cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical worries in the Middle
East, and expectations of increased festival demand in India, investors are still building long
positions in gold. U.S. traders have lately entered the speculative phase headed by China,
with futures long holdings at a nearly four-year high (315,000 contracts), producing a
market that is mostly unaffected by normal drivers.

4) ETF Holdings
Four months in a row, there have been inflows into global gold ETFs: all regions had positive
flows, with Western funds leading the way. The y-t-d losses for global gold ETFs further
decreased to $1bn as a result of nonstop inflows between May and August. Additionally, the

2024 holdings reduction has been reduced to 44t. In the meantime, during the first eight
months of 2024, the total AUM increased by 20%. Asia has seen the most inflows this year
($3.5 billion), while the leading outflows are from North America (-$1.5 billion) and Europe
(-$3.4 billion)

5) Dollar index
The Dollar Index has slipped below the highly crucial psychological milestone of the 100
mark as the US Dollar’s role as the major global reserve currency is being threatened. The
combination of better risk sentiment and lowered Fed rate expectations is fundamentally
unfavourable. Since gold doesn’t generate interest, cuts in interest rates contribute to a
declining value of the US dollar, which in turn makes the non-yielding metal more appealing.
The dollar index’s negative relationship with gold keeps the yellow metal maintained at high
levels.

6) Gold Silver ratio
The gold-silver ratio dropped to its lowest levels since July during the last week of
September, when gold started to approach $2700 and silver momentarily overtook a 10-
year high of over $33. At this point, the gold-to-silver ratio is 84 to 1. The beginning of a
silver rally that would see white metal surpass its more costly counterpart would be
confirmed by a sustained decline in the gold-silver ratio.

Domestic Factors Supporting Gold
1) RBI Gold reserves
The Reserve Bank of India’s appetite for gold remains high, as indicated by its recent
acquisitions. Over the first eight months of the year, the RBI has acquired a total of 50
tonnes of gold, with acquisitions in each month. Up from 7.5% a year ago, the RBI’s gold
reserves have now reached a record 853.6 tonnes or 9% of its total foreign reserves.

2) India Gold Imports
 The Union Budget’s announcement of the reduction in import duties and the modifications
to the long-term capital gains for gold ETFs has contributed to the rise in gold imports into
India. Between January and August, gold imports increased by 30% year over year to almost
485 tons, valued at US$32 billion.

3) Gold ETF Holdings
Investor interest in Indian gold ETF has surged since the end of July. According to AMFI data,
net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have reached Rs 61 billion (~$735 million) thus far in 2024,
a considerable rise of over Rs 15 billion during the same period in the previous year.
Together, these funds have added 9.5tn of gold this year, increasing their total holdings to
51.8tn, a 29% year-over-year rise.

4) Gold Premium/Discount
The gap between domestic and international gold prices has narrowed as a result of rising
global prices and increased supply from increased imports. Domestic gold prices have been
trading either at a modest discount to or in line with international prices in recent weeks,
despite the normalizing but still robust demand.

Diwali Outlook

Overall, with continued global economic uncertainty, gold is expected to retain its appeal
as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Investors may adopt a “buy on dips”
strategy as the metal is likely to see periodic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook
remains bullish through for next 5-6 months and prices are expected to touch $3000 (~Rs
84000​).

Having said that, currently gold prices are in the overbought zone, so we might see a
consolidation phase and a retracement with support at $2575 (~Rs 73000) and resistance
being the next psychological level of $2750 (~Rs 78000) in the next one month.

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By Invitation

Diamonds Reimagined: The Rise of Lab-Grown Elegance

By Akash Talesara
President : Sky Gold ltd.

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Celebrity Endorsements of LGDs

Celebrity endorsements are pivotal in transforming ethical luxury from an idealistic concept to a mainstream trend. When well-known figures embrace lab-grown diamonds, they redefine luxury by blending style with responsibility. These endorsements break the notion that luxury is only about exclusivity and excess, shifting the narrative to one where ethics and beauty coexist. As consumers increasingly prioritize sustainability, celebrities make it easier for them to align their values with their purchases, normalizing lab-grown diamonds as the future of luxury. This shift is not just a trend—it’s a cultural movement led by those who hold significant influence.

Global jewellery brands leveraging celebrity stardom

Global jewellery brands are tapping into the power of celebrity to position lab-grown diamonds as the next big thing in luxury. Celebrities bring visibility, credibility, and aspirational value to these diamonds, helping brands reframe them as a symbol of modern luxury. Through collaborations and campaigns featuring stars, jewellery brands communicate that lab-grown diamonds are not only ethically sound but also high-end and exclusive. These celebrity endorsements connect luxury with conscious consumption, shifting consumer perceptions and setting a new standard in the luxury market. This strategic use of star power helps lab-grown diamonds carve a niche as the future of sustainable luxury.

Celebrity collaborations driving the popularity of LGDs

Celebrity collaborations are a game-changer in how lab-grown diamonds are perceived. When icons align themselves with these diamonds, they make the concept of sustainable luxury not just appealing but aspirational. Through their influence, celebrities turn lab-grown diamonds into a desirable, high-status item, making them relatable for the general public. By wearing and endorsing these sustainable gems, they make them accessible to a broader range of consumers. These partnerships not only elevate the diamonds’ appeal but also serve as a bridge between high-end luxury and everyday luxury, making it more attainable for a global audience.

Millennials and Gen Z driving the shift toward LGDs

The jewellery market is shifting gears, embracing sustainability, ethical practices, and personalized designs like never before. Millennials and Gen Z are leading the charge in the lab-grown diamond movement. These diamonds are made with minimal environmental impact, offering a more eco-friendly and responsible choice. It’s not just about the sparkle, it’s about supporting brands that stand for authenticity and integrity. This change is reshaping the jewellery industry, blending craftsmanship with conscience and redefining luxury as a perfect balance of elegance and ethics. 

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By Invitation

Diamonds: Natural, grown, and their needs for differentiation in the global jewellery market

By Ramit Kapoor

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The debate between lab grown diamonds and naturals doesn’t seem to die down. Natural diamonds have had an unfettered rule in the global fine jewellery business for centuries until technological advancement allowed lab-grown diamonds, hitherto used in machine tools and cutting, found their way successfully into the fashion and jewellery space purely based on two reasons : perceived identical appearance and a staggeringly low price. Their entry into the market created a space for affordable jewellery, but they are not designed or are equipped to take over the natural diamond market. That’s because they are different and can be scientifically identified as such. 

Far from disrupting the prominence of natural diamonds, LGDs have emerged as a complementary force, addressing distinct consumer needs while broadening the appeal of diamond jewelry. But, let’s understand the purpose and appeal of each category. 

Natural diamonds continue to hold an unparalleled allure, deeply rooted in their rarity, geological history, and cultural heritage. They symbolize luxury, timelessness, and emotional significance, often marking milestone moments like engagements, weddings, and the creation of family heirlooms. Spending billions of years to be formed under the earth’s surface, natural diamonds command admiration from customers who associate lasting happiness and joy with the person they are buying it for, be it a self-purchase or a gift. Its journey of formation itself carries that value which, thanks to rising awareness, is of great value to its target audience irrespective of age barriers. Such consumers prioritize provenance, ethical sourcing, and origin determination, which reinforce the enduring appeal and exclusivity of natural diamonds.

On the other hand, lab-grown diamonds have carved out their own niche in the global jewelry market, starting with eco-conscious Millennials and Gen Z consumers in the United States. These synthetic diamonds appeal to buyers seeking sustainable and affordable alternatives. In India, a global hub for jewelry, the demand for LGDs is still at its nascent stage, because consumers are still understanding the product. Hence, there is a slow but steady growth in demand driven by their cost-effectiveness and the growing adoption of Western fashion sensibilities. Offering flexibility in design, LGDs are well-suited for trendy, everyday jewelry that embraces unconventional materials such as silver, tungsten, and titanium. They provide consumers with the freedom to explore unique styles while aligning with contemporary values of affordability and sustainability.

The distinction between natural and lab-grown diamonds is not merely academic—it is vital to maintaining consumer trust. Nomenclature is of paramount importance in this regard, as there are several ways to identify a lab-grown diamond. Since they are created in a controlled environment, their origin is different from those built by nature, and hence, must be positioned accordingly to extend confidence to customers of either segment. Thus, while both have their own value propositions, transparency in branding and communication is essential. Lab-grown diamonds should be presented as a distinct category, emphasizing their origin and purpose, rather than being combined with natural diamonds. 

As the diamond industry evolves, embracing the differences between natural and lab-grown diamonds is key to unlocking their full potential. Each caters to specific consumer preferences—natural diamonds for their legacy and emotional resonance, and lab-grown diamonds for their modern, versatile appeal. Retailers and stakeholders must adopt tailored marketing strategies and far better quality in certification and grading standards to give consumers exactly what they bought their products for. While the entire supply chain needs to be strongly educated to firstly identify the differences and sell the right jewellery, retailers especially need to refine marketing messages to effectively communicate these unique value propositions. This can be done by conducting awareness workshops for end-consumers and often showcasing both varieties to them just for knowledge. All in all, by fostering transparency, differentiation, and synergy within the supply chain, the industry can ensure the sustainable growth of both segments, securing a bright future for diamond jewelry on a global scale.

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By Invitation

How to position your store in the jewellery market 

Strategies for Success: Effectively Positioning Your Jewelry Store in a Competitive Market

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Shivaram A is a much sought after mentor, consultant, trainer and speaker across multiple industry platforms. He founded Retail Gurukul in 2012 as a Consulting & Training company. Shivaram has since helped and continues to help retailers and manufacturers, significantly improve their business performance across various metrics.

Shivaram’s  A Guide to Jewellery Retailing-Consumer facing operations  is  ultimate resource for jewellery store owners striving for success in today’s competitive market. Discover the secrets to making your jewellery retailing store succeed, draw in a steady flow of customers, and cultivate lasting loyalty. This comprehensive guide offers actionable advice and real-world examples to elevate your store’s aesthetics, service quality, and sales performance. This is an extract from A Guide to Jewellery Retailing-Consumer facing operations.

From the small corner-store goldsmith to the high-end boutique  jeweller in their own high-rise building, jewellery retailers come in  all forms and sizes. With the Indian jewellery market teeming with  nearly 300,000 players, every jewellery retailer must position  themselves uniquely to make their presence known in this  competitive scenario. 

As a jewellery retailer, you first have to decide whether you want  to remain as just a “store” or create a “brand”. But what is the  difference? 

A “brand” has some definable qualities by which it can be uniquely  identified. These qualities or features form a perception in the  minds of the customer which is called its brand equity. 

As a jeweller, you can project certain aspects of your jewellery  merchandise or customer service as brand quality. 

Look at how PC Chandra, the renowned Kolkata Jewellers are  trying to position themselves with the help of the famous creative  agency J Walter Thompson (JWT).  Ayan Chakraborty, VP and executive business director, JWT  Kolkata, said, “PC Chandra’s intricate craftsmanship and the brand’s unique image in the minds of Bengalis all over the world is  something we kept in mind while working.” 

Arjun Mukherjee, VP and ECD, JWT Kolkata, added, “The challenge was to create a philosophy for the brand which every modern  woman will relate to. We went beyond the beauty space in jewellery and tried to find an emotion that will resonate with one  and all.” 

You too can position your jewellery outlet as a unique brand by  defining its values and expressing your trade philosophy in the  following ways.

Ways in which you can position your outlet

Jewellery stores fall into certain categories. First, try to identify  which category you belong to, and then add value to it by defining  your strengths. You may be a: 

1. Personal Jeweller

When a customer looks for jewellery “tailor-made to his taste”, he comes to the personal jeweller. The Personal Jeweller highlights  the uniqueness of design, exclusivity and personalization as his  value points. Elite and royal families of illustrious lineage and social  celebrities often prefer to have their own personal jewellers. 

As a Personal Jeweller, you must vouch for your individuality in  design and integrity in trust. If you possess Jewellery design  software and have bagged Jewellery design awards, you really can  boast of being a genuine Personal Jeweller. 

2. Ethnic Jeweller

For people who have a taste for traditional and ethnic designs, the  Ethnic Jeweller is the destination. As an Ethnic Jeweller, you must  have profound knowledge in temple designs and must have the  capacity to reproduce them without even the slightest difference.  Polki, Jadau, Tanjore, Chettinad and Malabar designs feature as  ethnic offerings.

3. Modern Jeweller

For the young and trendy, the Modern Jeweller is the person to call  on. The Modern Jeweller must dabble in fusion and fashion.  Rhodium, Rose gold, Platinum and 18k designs are part of the  modern offerings. 

4. Boutique Jeweller

The boutique Jeweller is the guy who prides himself on his  jewellery range and exemplary service. These artistic showrooms  offer an appealing ambience and a comfortable customer  experience. Boutique Jewellers have several jewellery lines made  by different designers. 

5. Estate Jeweller

If you are looking for antique jewellery or vintage heirlooms, the  Estate Jeweller is the guy to go to. As an Estate Jeweller, you must  have the resourcefulness to seek and procure historic jewellery  with sufficient proof. Estate jewellers are very expensive as they  deal with high-end jewellery collectables. 

 6. Main Street Jeweller

The Main Street Jeweller has the sole objective of capturing the  interest of the urban audience. He caters to them with an eclectic  mix of traditional and modern jewellers with their latest  preferences in mind.

7. Chain Store Jeweller

With branches at multiple locations, the Chain Store Jeweller  prides itself on its wide geographical presence and popularity. His  network of stores may be at diverse locations but portray the same  brand image.

Steps to position your Jewellery store 

1. First, identify yourself with a particular Jeweller category among the ones listed above.

2. Outline your strengths in stock, service, range, design etc. 3. Zero in on your “unique selling points” – is it affordability, service, repair facility, cost savings…

4. Crystallize your brand persona as a brand image with the help of expert consultants like Retail Gurukul who can bring to light the hidden values of your brand.

5. Position your brand with this persona by forming a unique brand image and taglines.

6. Popularize your brand using these brand messages and establish your brand.

Your brand is as precious as your jewellery. Position it with  perfection to reach the pinnacle of success.

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