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Insights into the Gold & Bullion market

Over the past two years, gold prices have been underpinned by strong physical demand from China and central banks. However, investor flow, and specifically retail-focused ETF building, resident- its easing cycle on September 18, the Fed projected 50 basis points of rate reduction by year's end and a full percentage point of decreases the following year.

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During times of global instability and low interest rates, gold is typically favoured as an
investment. The U.S. presidential election on November 5th may possibly lead to a further
increase in gold prices, as investors may seek safe-haven assets due to possible volatility in
the markets.


Global Factors Impacting the Gold Rally
Gold has been the best-performing asset class in 2024, rising around 30% in international
markets and 22% in domestic markets with prices surpassing the $2700/oz (~ Rs 76400)
mark. The global central banks’ ongoing gold purchases, the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts,
the geopolitical unpredictability of the world’s markets, the slowdown in the Chinese
economy, and the recent monetary stimulus measures taken by the Chinese central banks
are all responsible for the strong performance.

1) Central Bank Buying
This year’s central bank gold demand is probably being influenced by the gold price
increase, but the long-term pattern of net purchasing is still in place. Total gold holdings
added by central banks around the world from January to July is around 520 tonnes. Turkey,
India and Poland have been the top buyers, while the Philippines and Thailand are the net
sellers.

2) FED rate cut cycle
Even if inflation is still high, gold is still in a favourable position as the Federal Reserve
cuts interest rates to support a contracting labour market. After a 50-bps rate cut and a
warning that rates may drop to 3% by 2026. It’s evident that the Fed is relaxing, which is
good news for yellow metal. With central banks all over the globe starting to lower
interest rates, gold is still the primary hedge against currency devaluation on a
worldwide scale.

3) Gold CFTC positioning
Due to the ongoing rate-cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical worries in the Middle
East, and expectations of increased festival demand in India, investors are still building long
positions in gold. U.S. traders have lately entered the speculative phase headed by China,
with futures long holdings at a nearly four-year high (315,000 contracts), producing a
market that is mostly unaffected by normal drivers.

4) ETF Holdings
Four months in a row, there have been inflows into global gold ETFs: all regions had positive
flows, with Western funds leading the way. The y-t-d losses for global gold ETFs further
decreased to $1bn as a result of nonstop inflows between May and August. Additionally, the

2024 holdings reduction has been reduced to 44t. In the meantime, during the first eight
months of 2024, the total AUM increased by 20%. Asia has seen the most inflows this year
($3.5 billion), while the leading outflows are from North America (-$1.5 billion) and Europe
(-$3.4 billion)

5) Dollar index
The Dollar Index has slipped below the highly crucial psychological milestone of the 100
mark as the US Dollar’s role as the major global reserve currency is being threatened. The
combination of better risk sentiment and lowered Fed rate expectations is fundamentally
unfavourable. Since gold doesn’t generate interest, cuts in interest rates contribute to a
declining value of the US dollar, which in turn makes the non-yielding metal more appealing.
The dollar index’s negative relationship with gold keeps the yellow metal maintained at high
levels.

6) Gold Silver ratio
The gold-silver ratio dropped to its lowest levels since July during the last week of
September, when gold started to approach $2700 and silver momentarily overtook a 10-
year high of over $33. At this point, the gold-to-silver ratio is 84 to 1. The beginning of a
silver rally that would see white metal surpass its more costly counterpart would be
confirmed by a sustained decline in the gold-silver ratio.

Domestic Factors Supporting Gold
1) RBI Gold reserves
The Reserve Bank of India’s appetite for gold remains high, as indicated by its recent
acquisitions. Over the first eight months of the year, the RBI has acquired a total of 50
tonnes of gold, with acquisitions in each month. Up from 7.5% a year ago, the RBI’s gold
reserves have now reached a record 853.6 tonnes or 9% of its total foreign reserves.

2) India Gold Imports
 The Union Budget’s announcement of the reduction in import duties and the modifications
to the long-term capital gains for gold ETFs has contributed to the rise in gold imports into
India. Between January and August, gold imports increased by 30% year over year to almost
485 tons, valued at US$32 billion.

3) Gold ETF Holdings
Investor interest in Indian gold ETF has surged since the end of July. According to AMFI data,
net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have reached Rs 61 billion (~$735 million) thus far in 2024,
a considerable rise of over Rs 15 billion during the same period in the previous year.
Together, these funds have added 9.5tn of gold this year, increasing their total holdings to
51.8tn, a 29% year-over-year rise.

4) Gold Premium/Discount
The gap between domestic and international gold prices has narrowed as a result of rising
global prices and increased supply from increased imports. Domestic gold prices have been
trading either at a modest discount to or in line with international prices in recent weeks,
despite the normalizing but still robust demand.

Diwali Outlook

Overall, with continued global economic uncertainty, gold is expected to retain its appeal
as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Investors may adopt a “buy on dips”
strategy as the metal is likely to see periodic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook
remains bullish through for next 5-6 months and prices are expected to touch $3000 (~Rs
84000​).

Having said that, currently gold prices are in the overbought zone, so we might see a
consolidation phase and a retracement with support at $2575 (~Rs 73000) and resistance
being the next psychological level of $2750 (~Rs 78000) in the next one month.

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By Invitation

Diamonds: Natural, grown, and their needs for differentiation in the global jewellery market

by Ramit Kapur, Managing Director, GSI India

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The debate between lab grown diamonds and naturals doesn’t seem to die down. Natural diamonds have had an unfettered rule in the global fine jewellery business for centuries until technological advancement allowed lab-grown diamonds, hitherto used in machine tools and cutting, found their way successfully into the fashion and jewellery space purely based on two reasons : perceived identical appearance and a staggeringly low price. Their entry into the market created a space for affordable jewellery, but they are not designed or are equipped to take over the natural diamond market. That’s because they are different and can be scientifically identified as such. 

Far from disrupting the prominence of natural diamonds, LGDs have emerged as a complementary force, addressing distinct consumer needs while broadening the appeal of diamond jewelry. But, let’s understand the purpose and appeal of each category. 

Natural diamonds continue to hold an unparalleled allure, deeply rooted in their rarity, geological history, and cultural heritage. They symbolize luxury, timelessness, and emotional significance, often marking milestone moments like engagements, weddings, and the creation of family heirlooms. Spending billions of years to be formed under the earth’s surface, natural diamonds command admiration from customers who associate lasting happiness and joy with the person they are buying it for, be it a self-purchase or a gift. Its journey of formation itself carries that value which, thanks to rising awareness, is of great value to its target audience irrespective of age barriers. Such consumers prioritize provenance, ethical sourcing, and origin determination, which reinforce the enduring appeal and exclusivity of natural diamonds.

On the other hand, lab-grown diamonds have carved out their own niche in the global jewelry market, starting with eco-conscious Millennials and Gen Z consumers in the United States. These synthetic diamonds appeal to buyers seeking sustainable and affordable alternatives. In India, a global hub for jewelry, the demand for LGDs is still at its nascent stage, because consumers are still understanding the product. Hence, there is a slow but steady growth in demand driven by their cost-effectiveness and the growing adoption of Western fashion sensibilities. Offering flexibility in design, LGDs are well-suited for trendy, everyday jewelry that embraces unconventional materials such as silver, tungsten, and titanium. They provide consumers with the freedom to explore unique styles while aligning with contemporary values of affordability and sustainability.

The distinction between natural and lab-grown diamonds is not merely academic—it is vital to maintaining consumer trust. Nomenclature is of paramount importance in this regard, as there are several ways to identify a lab-grown diamond. Since they are created in a controlled environment, their origin is different from those built by nature, and hence, must be positioned accordingly to extend confidence to customers of either segment. Thus, while both have their own value propositions, transparency in branding and communication is essential. Lab-grown diamonds should be presented as a distinct category, emphasizing their origin and purpose, rather than being combined with natural diamonds. 

As the diamond industry evolves, embracing the differences between natural and lab-grown diamonds is key to unlocking their full potential. Each caters to specific consumer preferences—natural diamonds for their legacy and emotional resonance, and lab-grown diamonds for their modern, versatile appeal. Retailers and stakeholders must adopt tailored marketing strategies and far better quality in certification and grading standards to give consumers exactly what they bought their products for. While the entire supply chain needs to be strongly educated to firstly identify the differences and sell the right jewellery, retailers especially need to refine marketing messages to effectively communicate these unique value propositions. This can be done by conducting awareness workshops for end-consumers and often showcasing both varieties to them just for knowledge. All in all, by fostering transparency, differentiation, and synergy within the supply chain, the industry can ensure the sustainable growth of both segments, securing a bright future for diamond jewelry on a global scale.

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Nehal Shah: Queen of Charms

“I want to create pieces that stand the test time, transcending trends and feeling as relevant years from now as they are today”

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Nehal Shah, founder of ENESSE by NEHAL SHAH, created a unique niche for herself with her exquisite collection of  charms, depicting women’s most desired accessories like shoes, bags, etc. transformed into iconic and trendy jewellery pieces.

Each charm has a theme along with a relevant message, that all women can identify with and define their own personal style, moments, aspirations, desires and more. Charms allow for endless creativity and personalization, making them adaptable to trends and individual stories.

Nehal Shah, the Queen of Charms, spoke  to JewelBuzz on her journey in jewellery designing, her philosophy to create pieces that stand the test time ….and more.

Take us through your journey into jewelry designing: your inspiration, your beginnings, and your evolution into a renowned designer.

Design is an exciting and deeply creative process, with each piece telling a story. Every jewelry design begins with an inspiration. It might come from nature, architecture, emotions, or even a personal story.

It sounds like creating charms is a perfect way to bring fresh, versatile designs to the jewelry line. Charms allow for endless creativity and personalization, making them adaptable to trends and individual stories. Plus, with each charm carrying its own meaning, they’re easy for customers to connect with on a personal level. It’s a great strategy to add variety while offering pieces that can hold sentimental value!

Connecting each charm to your personal life emotions is a beautiful part of designing charms, each charm can symbolize a memory of life like a handbag, sunglasses, stilettos, gift box, champagne glass, lipstick, perfume bottles. 

What is your design philosophy? 

To create pieces that stand the test time, transcending trends and feeling as relevant years from now as they do today. 

Charms have been in the market for several years now. Nehal Shah has reinvented and discovered the concept and more designs in 3D format. The overall range is crafted with a futuristic vision. The collection, although urban and new-age, is yet timeless and eternal. Charms can be passed on from generation to generation and it fits well to all the age groups. Charms can be used for personal consumption as well as a Gift idea.

What are your favorite metals, stones and other materials? 

Gold and titanium is my favorite metal in combination with diamonds, color stone , enamel and hand painting.

————

Take us through the creation process of your unique, out of the box jewelry pieces/ collections.

I have creatively imagined different hues of enamel in my heart, while designing the concept. The beautiful locks have been specifically designed for the charms and the necklace. Different locks and detachable charms offer a significant flexibility for the consumer. Varied combinations can be tried and every time a unique look having a variety of combinations can be donned. These combinations can include various color stones, diamonds, and enamel.

As an entrepreneur, what are the lessons you have learnt in establishing a business, strategy for growth, brand positioning etc. How does one balance creativity with commercial viability and changing consumer preferences?

Balancing creativity with commercial viability and changing consumer preferences is a challenging but rewarding aspect of jewelry design.

I do not hesitate to experiment and dare new and out-of-the-box designs, which is wearable and price sensitive. Balancing creativity with commercial viability and changing consumer preferences is a challenging but rewarding aspect of jewelry design.

  1. Understanding the Target Audience
  2. Following Trends Without Losing Identity
  3. Creating Timeless with a Twist
  4. Experimenting in Small Batches
  5. Balancing Practicality with Artistry

Your comments on the current jewelry designing segment in India? What is the standing and brand positioning of India’s jewelry designers on the global stage? After MAKE IN INDIA, are we ready for DESIGN IN INDIA?

Indian jewellery designer segment is vibrant and evolving, especially in the country, with a fascinating mix of tradition and innovation. India’s jewelry designers are making significant strides on the global stage, with a brand positioning that highlights rich heritage, skilled craftsmanship, and unique design perspective.

————

What is potential for Indian designers to collaborate with global brands and top international designers?

Immense potential. If the product is great, the time is always right. India has a great blend of skills, intelligence, cost and economies of scale.

————

What’s your message for aspiring, as well as practicing jewelry designers?

Don’t hesitate to experiment new ideas, go with your gut feeling and you will never fail.

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Building your personal brand to build your  business

Think of Elon Musk, Steve Jobs and Richard Branson. These are well-known people. Elon Musk owns companies like Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink. Steve Jobs was behind the iconic Apple products such as the iPhone and the Mac. Richard Branson owns Virgin Atlantic. These people are not known because of their companies and businesses. Their companies and businesses are known because of these people. This is the power of personal branding.

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Share prices of a company drop when a CEO leaves. On the reverse side, share prices of a company rise when a new CEO joins. This is personal branding. People are ready to bet on a company because they trust the person at the helm. In current politics, the biggest example is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Whether you vote for the BJP or not, he is the deciding factor, the personal brand.

A personal brand is strategically built. It shapes and promotes an individual’s identity, expertise, and reputation, in such a manner that people are eager to spend money on the business that individual is associated with.

You must have seen in TV ads how famous actors and players become brand ambassadors of certain products. When Amitabh Bachchan endorses a product, he is putting his name and his reputation behind that product. He wants people to buy that product because people trust his judgement. They believe that if he is saying something, it must be true.

While reading this you must be thinking personal branding is all about mega businesses and mega personalities. Where does that leave a small business? Can you use personal branding to promote your business? Yes you can. If you believe your business depends on trust and reputation, you can add your own personal branding to the overall trust and reputation that your business has so far enjoyed.

The benefits of building your personal brand

Your personal brand helps you build credibility and trust in your niche. When people recognize your expertise and consistency, they trust your opinion and through your opinion, the trust your product or service. Your personal brand also helps you build your network. You connect with

like-minded people who have established themselves as an authority in their field or profession. Through your powerful personal brand, you can positively influence people. You inspire change in their thinking. You can help them decide. Also, in a market full of similar products and personalities, your personal brand helps you stand out. Your customers and business partners can differentiate you from your competitors.

How do you build your personal brand?

Building a personal brand is not as difficult as it used to be. There are multiple platforms available to you where you can increase your visibility and the good thing is, 99% of such platforms are available on the Internet, and mostly free.

But before that, do an audit of your strengths, passion, and your mission. Why do you do what you do? What unique value can you offer? Why should people pay attention to you? Within your field, where would you like to excel and make your name? What sets you apart? What strengths you already have that you can build on? Who is most likely to benefit from your abilities?

Once you have written down answers to these questions, you need to decide how you want to elevate your visibility so that more people know about your expertise. You can write a book. You can create a social media presence by regularly posting insightful, authoritative content. But before that find out where your audience spends time looking for content you are interested in sharing. Is it LinkedIn? Is a Twitter? Is it Instagram? Be consistent. Add value to people’s timelines. Inform and encourage.

Share knowledge and insights that others don’t share.

If you have contacts in popular publications like newspapers and magazines, you can get your expert opinions published over there, for example, getting an article published in Forbes can immediately enhance your authority. Using blogging platforms like Medium and LinkedIn you can even publish your own blog posts as authoritative commentary on your chosen topics.

Take up speaking opportunities. There may be many conferences and seminars where you can speak and share your experience to enrich the audience.

Building a personal brand these days requires a strategy. Continuously evaluate your effort. Gather data of the responses that you get on social media. What type of content gets the maximum traction? Publish more of such content. What topics excite people? Talk about those topics.

Participate in ongoing discussions. It takes time, effort, and dedication. Be persistent, remain consistent in your efforts, and above all, deliver value.

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