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Insights into the Gold & Bullion market

Over the past two years, gold prices have been underpinned by strong physical demand from China and central banks. However, investor flow, and specifically retail-focused ETF building, resident- its easing cycle on September 18, the Fed projected 50 basis points of rate reduction by year's end and a full percentage point of decreases the following year.

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During times of global instability and low interest rates, gold is typically favoured as an
investment. The U.S. presidential election on November 5th may possibly lead to a further
increase in gold prices, as investors may seek safe-haven assets due to possible volatility in
the markets.


Global Factors Impacting the Gold Rally
Gold has been the best-performing asset class in 2024, rising around 30% in international
markets and 22% in domestic markets with prices surpassing the $2700/oz (~ Rs 76400)
mark. The global central banks’ ongoing gold purchases, the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts,
the geopolitical unpredictability of the world’s markets, the slowdown in the Chinese
economy, and the recent monetary stimulus measures taken by the Chinese central banks
are all responsible for the strong performance.

1) Central Bank Buying
This year’s central bank gold demand is probably being influenced by the gold price
increase, but the long-term pattern of net purchasing is still in place. Total gold holdings
added by central banks around the world from January to July is around 520 tonnes. Turkey,
India and Poland have been the top buyers, while the Philippines and Thailand are the net
sellers.

2) FED rate cut cycle
Even if inflation is still high, gold is still in a favourable position as the Federal Reserve
cuts interest rates to support a contracting labour market. After a 50-bps rate cut and a
warning that rates may drop to 3% by 2026. It’s evident that the Fed is relaxing, which is
good news for yellow metal. With central banks all over the globe starting to lower
interest rates, gold is still the primary hedge against currency devaluation on a
worldwide scale.

3) Gold CFTC positioning
Due to the ongoing rate-cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical worries in the Middle
East, and expectations of increased festival demand in India, investors are still building long
positions in gold. U.S. traders have lately entered the speculative phase headed by China,
with futures long holdings at a nearly four-year high (315,000 contracts), producing a
market that is mostly unaffected by normal drivers.

4) ETF Holdings
Four months in a row, there have been inflows into global gold ETFs: all regions had positive
flows, with Western funds leading the way. The y-t-d losses for global gold ETFs further
decreased to $1bn as a result of nonstop inflows between May and August. Additionally, the

2024 holdings reduction has been reduced to 44t. In the meantime, during the first eight
months of 2024, the total AUM increased by 20%. Asia has seen the most inflows this year
($3.5 billion), while the leading outflows are from North America (-$1.5 billion) and Europe
(-$3.4 billion)

5) Dollar index
The Dollar Index has slipped below the highly crucial psychological milestone of the 100
mark as the US Dollar’s role as the major global reserve currency is being threatened. The
combination of better risk sentiment and lowered Fed rate expectations is fundamentally
unfavourable. Since gold doesn’t generate interest, cuts in interest rates contribute to a
declining value of the US dollar, which in turn makes the non-yielding metal more appealing.
The dollar index’s negative relationship with gold keeps the yellow metal maintained at high
levels.

6) Gold Silver ratio
The gold-silver ratio dropped to its lowest levels since July during the last week of
September, when gold started to approach $2700 and silver momentarily overtook a 10-
year high of over $33. At this point, the gold-to-silver ratio is 84 to 1. The beginning of a
silver rally that would see white metal surpass its more costly counterpart would be
confirmed by a sustained decline in the gold-silver ratio.

Domestic Factors Supporting Gold
1) RBI Gold reserves
The Reserve Bank of India’s appetite for gold remains high, as indicated by its recent
acquisitions. Over the first eight months of the year, the RBI has acquired a total of 50
tonnes of gold, with acquisitions in each month. Up from 7.5% a year ago, the RBI’s gold
reserves have now reached a record 853.6 tonnes or 9% of its total foreign reserves.

2) India Gold Imports
 The Union Budget’s announcement of the reduction in import duties and the modifications
to the long-term capital gains for gold ETFs has contributed to the rise in gold imports into
India. Between January and August, gold imports increased by 30% year over year to almost
485 tons, valued at US$32 billion.

3) Gold ETF Holdings
Investor interest in Indian gold ETF has surged since the end of July. According to AMFI data,
net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have reached Rs 61 billion (~$735 million) thus far in 2024,
a considerable rise of over Rs 15 billion during the same period in the previous year.
Together, these funds have added 9.5tn of gold this year, increasing their total holdings to
51.8tn, a 29% year-over-year rise.

4) Gold Premium/Discount
The gap between domestic and international gold prices has narrowed as a result of rising
global prices and increased supply from increased imports. Domestic gold prices have been
trading either at a modest discount to or in line with international prices in recent weeks,
despite the normalizing but still robust demand.

Diwali Outlook

Overall, with continued global economic uncertainty, gold is expected to retain its appeal
as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Investors may adopt a “buy on dips”
strategy as the metal is likely to see periodic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook
remains bullish through for next 5-6 months and prices are expected to touch $3000 (~Rs
84000​).

Having said that, currently gold prices are in the overbought zone, so we might see a
consolidation phase and a retracement with support at $2575 (~Rs 73000) and resistance
being the next psychological level of $2750 (~Rs 78000) in the next one month.

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Arayian Jewellery: Weaving Heritage, Craftsmanship, and Modern Elegance into Every Gemstone

By Shivaram A

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Arayian Jewellery, a distinguished name in the world of fine coloured gemstone jewellery, is redefining elegance through a rare blend of legacy, craftsmanship, and modern design.

Spearheaded by Ayushi Khandelwal, the brand draws from generations of expertise in gemstone trading and jewellery making. With a commitment to authenticity, vertical integration, and a deep respect for cultural roots, Arayian offers more than just jewellery—it offers heirlooms crafted with heart, history, and a forward-looking vision.

Here’s what Ayushi Khandelwal, Creative Director of Arayian Jewellery, has to say about the brand’s journey, philosophy, and vision for the future.

1. How do you define the legacy of Arayian Jewellery? 

Arayian Jewellery is built on a legacy of generations deeply rooted in the world of fine  jewellery and gemstone trading. Surrounded by exquisite stones and craftsmanship  from a young age, we channel this heritage, passion, and knowledge into creating  timeless pieces for our clients—offering not just jewellery, but a legacy of love and  refinement. 

2. Explain the USP of your brand. 

We are involved in the entire journey—from sourcing rough gemstones and cutting  them in-house to crafting fine jewellery. This unique vertical integration allows us to  offer bespoke, high-end pieces with unmatched precision and quality, all under one  roof. 

3. What is your design philosophy? 

Our designs revolve around the natural beauty of precious gemstones. We aim to  create modern, elegant, and everlasting pieces that highlight the uniqueness of each  stone while maintaining a timeless aesthetic. 

4. Kindly provide details of your product offerings—bridal & jewellery collections  or others. 

We specialize in exclusive fine jewellery crafted with natural, coloured gemstones.  Every piece is one-of-a-kind, celebrating individuality with authenticity and certified  provenance. Our offerings include bridal collections, statement jewellery, and  heirloom-worthy pieces.

5.  How do you ensure that your jewellery designs reflect cultural heritage while  appealing to the evolving tastes of younger generations? 

By embracing clean, contemporary aesthetics while honouring the intrinsic elegance  of traditional gemstones, we create designs that resonate with modern sensibilities  without losing their cultural soul. The coloured stones remain the centrepiece of our  creations, offering a bridge between heritage and innovation. 

6. What role does sustainability play in your sourcing and crafting processes? 

We source our gemstones responsibly, primarily via auctions from the likes of Gemfields. Our in-house cutting of rough stones not only reduces environmental  impact but also ensures every layout is distinctive and responsibly crafted. 

7.  How does your brand differentiate itself from traditional jewellery makers in  Jaipur in terms of craftsmanship and innovation? 

Our commitment to international standards of craftsmanship sets us apart. Each piece  is designed for enduring comfort, precision, and wearability, combining traditional  artistry with cutting-edge techniques for global appeal. 

8. What specific measures have you taken to make your jewellery accessible to a  global audience without compromising cultural authenticity? 

We actively participate in prestigious international exhibitions, making our work  accessible to clients across the globe while staying true to our roots in artisanal  gemstone craftsmanship. 

9. How do you incorporate modern technology, such as AI, in jewellery  designing? 

Our design process is grounded in hand-sketching and personal inspiration drawn  from travel and surroundings. While we honour traditional design methods, we remain 

open to integrating modern tools, including AI, to enhance precision and creativity in  future collections. 

10.  Where does Arayian Jewellery see itself in the coming years? What is the  roadmap? 

We envision Arayian Jewellery becoming a globally recognized name in fine coloured gemstone jewellery—synonymous with excellence, authenticity, and innovation. Our  roadmap includes global expansion, increased visibility through exhibitions, and  continuously elevating our craftsmanship. 

11. Where is Arayian Jewellery’s presence beyond the Indian market? 

Arayian Jewellery has an international footprint through exhibitions and showcases in  key global markets including Bangkok, Qatar, Turkey, Hong Kong, Las Vegas, and  Singapore, allowing us to connect with a discerning global clientele. 

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The new 4 C’s of Jewellery Retailing 

By Shivaram A

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Jewellery is a precious commodity to purchase, and every customer wishes to take a cautious decision. Most of the purchase decisions of the jewellery customer is dependent on her “perception” of the brand or the jeweller. Keeping this in mind, certain parameters can be defined to help the customer make a quick and correct decision.  For example, while buying diamond jewellery, 4 factors were considered as the “C”s- cut, carat, colour and clarity of the diamonds. 

Likewise, the present customer’s buying behaviour rests on the 4 new “C”s of Jewellery Retail. What are these 4 new “C”s?  Let us take a look.  

The 4 new “C”s  

Today’s customer’s mindset has undergone a huge transformation due to the accessibility to international trends and markets (maybe due to travel or just social media) and a wide range of designs and services are now available at jewellery stores. The buying behaviour of the current customers is governed by certain factors which are  depicted below.  

Observing the rankings (see Figure “Factors considered while  selecting a Brand”), we can conclude that a jewellery customer’s  purchase decision is based on the 4 new “C” s – Cost, Confidence,  Convenience and Customer Service. 

1. Cost- the first “C” 

Let us face it. You, me and almost every Indian is very price conscious.  Thus every customer wants to have the full value for her money- “Full  paisa vasool / Good Deal” This is more so in the case of jewellery  retail due to the high costs involved in the purchase.  Cost is thus  the dominating factor in the purchase decision of a jewellery  customer. This cost of jewellery includes the making charges and  the cost of the gold paid out as wastage. If this final cost looks  affordable and justified to the customer, you, the retailer can make  a sale.  

So, the first “C” in the purchase decision is COST and as a jewellery  retailer, you must position your brand rightly with respect to  “cost”. 

There are brands where the Making Charges / Value Addition is advertised in Bold while there are other brands like Malabar Gold or Tanishq, which may  not be the cheapest in pricing but will want to still offer “Value for  Money” for their set of customers. These customers might be very  different from the customers for say a price warrior brand, but their customers also  believe that the cost is worth it.  

2. Confidence- the second “C” 

A customer’s confidence in the jewellery brand starts with how the brand meets her expectations right from her first interaction during say marketing communication, her first purchase and goes on to maintain that confidence that is reflected in her  repeat purchases and referrals. Word-of-mouth referrals and  relatives’ recommendations still form some of the influencing  factors of jewellery purchases.  

Trustworthiness of a brand is a mark of the confidence the customer has in the jewellery retailer and this is an aggregate of several factors which include purity, pricing, discounts, shopping experience, after-sales  service etc. A customer, who feels that the jeweller can give her

the best in all the above factors, has typically won her confidence. 

This clearly shows that the “confidence” of the customer in the  brand is emerging as the second “C” and it is the most important  factor in brand perception and purchase decision.  

3. Convenience- the third “C” 

Jewellery is still a “touch and feel” market where purchases are  made in person. But of late, convenience in jewellery shopping is  emerging as one of the decisive factors in jewellery purchase.  

Today’s customers are well-informed about the price  fluctuations, making charges, wastage, and design options etc. even prior to the actual physical purchase at the shop. The presence of a  website or social media like Instagram/ Facebook etc. with a design gallery and price estimates are often appreciated by customers as it  helps them in planning their purchase. Such a convenience-driven  model of business with knowledge-empowerment is the call of  today for jewellery retailers.  

This is why Convenience is emerging as the third C in brand positioning or purchase decisions.  

Customers look at “customization” as part of the convenience  offered by a jeweller. The convenience of customization is an added benefit offered by jewellers. Convenience also  means service benefits that the jewellery outlet offers like “home  delivery” or”gifting options”.  

4. Customer service – the 4th C 

A jewellery purchase is an emotional decision for most buyers as they attach great sentimental and personal value to the jewellery they purchase. This is why customers look for a “positive shopping experience” when they come to buy jewellery. This positive shopping experience is founded on the 4th C -customer service. 

Customer service involves not only hospitality and friendly  greetings but also expertise from the staff. Customers expect well informed staff to guide and advise them on their jewellery choices.  

Ganesh Jewellers of Mumbai wish to position themselves with  respect to their customer service. Look at what they say – 

Right from the marketing communication, the entry to the store/  website, the warm welcome, the store atmosphere, the hospitality  gestures, the offers on the merchandise including the range, the price, the design etc. to the customer-handling, everything in your  jewellery outlet should enrich the 4th C – the customer service. 

The Jewellery industry may see its ups and down regularly, but if  you keep these 4 Cs in mind and position your brand or jewellery  outlet, you are sure to be the champion of jewellery retail in your  market and beyond.

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Tips to Identify Gold Loan Scammers

By Priyank Kothari, Director- Arvog

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The ease and convenience of gold loans is the prime reason for its huge popularity and accessibility. Being a secured loan, it does not require much documentation and processes. Gold loans in India have been emerging as the most popularly accessed credit form. With such huge popularity of gold loans, the scamsters also get active to cheat people. Read here to identify between the genuine gold lenders and fake ones. 

Gold loans have emerged as one of the most accessible and dependable forms of credit in India. They are easy to apply for, processed quickly, and disbursed almost immediately. What makes them particularly attractive is the minimal paperwork involved and the fact that they usually bypass long credit history checks.

However, as the popularity of gold loans grows, so does the risk of falling victim to fraud. Many individuals in urgent need of funds become easy targets for scammers posing as gold loan providers. These fraudsters exploit the borrower’s urgency and trust, often leading to significant financial losses.

Red Flags: How to Spot a Fake Gold Loan Lender

Fraudulent lenders often try to lure borrowers with offers that seem too good to be true. Watch out for the following warning signs:

  • Unrealistically Low Interest Rates: Be cautious if the rates offered are far below the market average.
  • Inconsistent or Delayed Communication: Lack of professionalism or delayed responses could signal a scam.
  • No Contact Information: A legitimate lender will always provide verifiable contact details.
  • Unclear Loan Terms: If terms and conditions are vague or not explained properly, that’s a red flag.
  • Missing Licenses: Genuine lenders are licensed and regulated by appropriate authorities.
  • False Affiliations: Verify any claims of association with known institutions.

How to Identify a Genuine Gold Loan Provider

As a borrower, you have every right to verify the credibility of the lender. Here are a few essential checks:

  1. Verify Credentials: Ensure the lender is registered with financial authorities and follows regulatory norms.
  2. Compare Interest Rates: Research and compare rates with other well-known lenders.
  3. Insist on a Personal Visit: Visit their branch or office to understand their operations better.
  4. Request a Draft Key Facts Statement (KFS): This document clearly outlines loan terms, helping you make an informed choice.

Why Choose Arvog Gold Loans?

With over 40 years of legacy and trust, Arvog Gold Loans offers a seamless, secure, and customer-friendly borrowing experience. Here’s what sets Arvog apart:

1. Simple Application Process

Applying is straightforward and can be completed online within minutes. The user-friendly portal ensures a smooth experience.

2. Quick Loan Processing

Arvog processes loan applications in under 30 minutes, helping borrowers access funds when they need them the most.

3. Immediate Disbursal

Once the gold is evaluated, the loan amount is credited—often within hours—directly to your bank account.

4. Lowest Interest Rates

Compared to unsecured loans like personal loans or credit cards, Arvog Gold Loans offer significantly lower interest rates, making them cost-effective.

5. Flexible Repayment Options

Choose a repayment schedule that works for you—monthly EMIs, bullet repayments, or a one-time payment at the end of the tenure.

6. No Credit Score Required

Since the loan is secured against gold, your credit score doesn’t affect the approval—making it accessible even to those with limited credit history.

7. Secure Gold Storage

Your pledged gold is stored in SEBI-monitored vaults with the highest level of security, giving you complete peace of mind.

8. Guaranteed Gold Return

Upon successful repayment, your gold is returned in the exact condition it was submitted, ensuring both emotional and financial security.

Make Informed Choices

Gold loans are a practical and trustworthy way to raise funds—whether for urgent needs or major life plans. However, it is crucial to read the Key Facts Statement (KFS) thoroughly. This document includes important details like interest rates, charges, repayment terms, and more. Reviewing it before signing ensures transparency and a well-informed decision.

Conclusion

Gold loans seamlessly blend the traditional value of gold with the convenience of modern finance. With features like fast disbursal, low interest rates, and secure asset handling, they provide a reliable financial solution. By choosing a trusted and regulated lender like Arvog, borrowers can enjoy the benefits of gold loans with complete confidence and peace of mind.

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