International News
Gold prices edge higher on Trump tariffs, Russia caution
Gold’s gains were limited because the U.S. dollar is also performing well. The dollar went up as investors waited for important inflation data to be released on Tuesday. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,361.42 an ounce, while gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,374.80/oz .
Gold prices edged up a bit in Asia today, continuing their recent climb. Investors are feeling a little nervous because of the possibility of the U.S. President, Donald Trump, raising tariffs on imported goods. This nervousness drove investors to safe haven assets. Safe haven demand was also buoyed by reports that Trump planned to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, potentially escalating a conflict with Russia.
Physical demand, however, stayed subdued in Asia due to high prices and seasonal weakness, with Chinese premiums steady at $10–$25 an ounce and Indian discounts narrowing to $8 per ounce amid tight local supply and low imports in May and June. Typically, India’s gold demand softens during the monsoon season, while premiums in Hong Kong and Singapore hovered at modest levels.
President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff moves—including a fresh 35% levy on Canadian imports from August 1 and plans for 15–20% blanket duties on most other trade partners—fueled investor anxiety over global growth and inflation. This was compounded by his push for a dramatic 300 bps cut in the Fed funds rate, which stirred speculation about a dovish tilt in US monetary policy and raised concerns about longer-term inflation risks.
Further compounding this anxiety is President Trump’s aggressive push for a significant 300-basis-point reduction in the Federal funds rate. This call has ignited speculation about a potentially dovish shift in U.S. monetary policy, raising concerns among some market participants about longer-term inflation risks. In such an environment, gold, often seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, typically finds favor.
Despite the macro tailwinds, physical demand for gold in Asia remained subdued. Elevated prices and seasonal weakness, particularly as India enters its monsoon season, contributed to softer buying. Chinese gold premiums held steady at a modest $10-$25 an ounce, while Indian discounts narrowed to $8 per ounce, reflecting tight local supply and a slowdown in imports during May and June. Premiums in key trading hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore also hovered at modest levels.
International News
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Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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