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Gold prices edge higher on  Trump tariffs, Russia caution

Gold’s gains were  limited  because the U.S. dollar is also performing well. The dollar went up as investors waited for important inflation data to be released on Tuesday. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,361.42 an ounce, while gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,374.80/oz .

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Gold prices edged up a bit in Asia today, continuing their recent climb. Investors are feeling a little nervous because of the possibility of the U.S. President, Donald Trump, raising tariffs on imported goods. This nervousness drove  investors to safe haven assets. Safe haven demand was also buoyed by reports that Trump planned to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, potentially escalating a conflict with Russia. 

Physical demand, however, stayed subdued in Asia due to high prices and seasonal weakness, with Chinese premiums steady at $10–$25 an ounce and Indian discounts narrowing to $8 per ounce amid tight local supply and low imports in May and June. Typically, India’s gold demand softens during the monsoon season, while premiums in Hong Kong and Singapore hovered at modest levels.

President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff moves—including a fresh 35% levy on Canadian imports from August 1 and plans for 15–20% blanket duties on most other trade partners—fueled investor anxiety over global growth and inflation. This was compounded by his push for a dramatic 300 bps cut in the Fed funds rate, which stirred speculation about a dovish tilt in US monetary policy and raised concerns about longer-term inflation risks.

Further compounding this anxiety is President Trump’s aggressive push for a significant 300-basis-point reduction in the Federal funds rate. This call has ignited speculation about a potentially dovish shift in U.S. monetary policy, raising concerns among some market participants about longer-term inflation risks. In such an environment, gold, often seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, typically finds favor.

Despite the macro tailwinds, physical demand for gold in Asia remained subdued. Elevated prices and seasonal weakness, particularly as India enters its monsoon season, contributed to softer buying. Chinese gold premiums held steady at a modest $10-$25 an ounce, while Indian discounts narrowed to $8 per ounce, reflecting tight local supply and a slowdown in imports during May and June. Premiums in key trading hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore also hovered at modest levels.

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International News

Precious Metals Bounce Back As Iran Ceasefire Hopes Rise, But Fed Rate Fears Loom: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Gold Remains Under Short-term Pressure from Expectations of Fed Tightening and a Strong Dollar. However, Investor Positioning in Gold Looks Relatively Light After Months of ETF Outflows.

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Price MovementGold has bounced back from its key support levels near $3960, and Silver has recovered from $55, after an Iranian official reportedly received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire. The continuing US-Iran standoff has kept investors worried about energy-driven inflation and the possibility of further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a US rate hike in December, up sharply from 73% just a week earlier, based on the CME FedWatch tool.

Geopolitical Tensions – Despite the Houthis announcing fresh military action, both Tehran and Washington appear keen to restart talks and stop the escalating attacks that have nearly destroyed a fragile interim agreement reached last month. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire, aimed at rescuing the interim deal and eventually leading to a lasting peace agreement.

Macro-Economic SignalsGold remains under short-term pressure from expectations of Fed tightening and a strong dollar. However, investor positioning in gold looks relatively light after months of ETF outflows, meaning further price drops may be limited. Strong physical demand, especially from China, along with continued central bank buying, is providing solid support to the gold market.

Technical Triggers

If Gold fails to hold above $4,000 (~Rs.1,41,000), it could slide further to $3,900 (~Rs.1,38,000). But if it manages to stay above $4,200, a fresh rally could take it toward $4,500 (~Rs.1,55,000).

For Silver, a strong move above $63 (~Rs.2,35,000) could push prices toward $70–71 (~Rs.2,51,000–2,55,000). On the other hand, a fall below $55 (~Rs.2,14,000) may drag it down to $50 (~Rs.2,00,000).

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $3900/oz
: $4160/oz
: Rs 137,000/10 gm
: Rs 147,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $55/oz
: $63/oz  
: Rs 214,000/kg
: Rs 235,000/kg
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