Precious metals traded in a tight, volatile range Tuesday as a strengthening U.S. dollar and escalating geopolitical friction disrupted bullion’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold for June delivery ticked up slightly to Rs. 159,499 per 10 grams, while July silver futures gained marginally to reach Rs. 266,350 per kilogram. In global markets, spot gold held steady at $4,481.53 an ounce, while spot silver advanced 0.5% to $75.21 an ounce.

The immediate outlook for precious metals is being squeezed by two competing macroeconomic forces:

• The Safe-Haven Paradox: Despite the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, investors are increasingly bypassing gold in favor of the U.S. dollar and risk assets, betting that persistent geopolitical tensions and rising crude prices will force central banks to keep interest rates “higher for longer.”
• Geopolitical Whiplash: Markets are reacting to highly fluid developments in the Middle East. While Iran threatened to suspend indirect talks with Washington and block the critical Strait of Hormuz following fresh military strikes, President Donald Trump dismissed reports of a diplomatic breakdown, asserting that negotiations are progressing rapidly.

By the end of 2026, gold still has potential to hit $5,500 should favourable circumstances arise, notably lower oil prices and a depreciation of the dollar, underpinned by continued robust central bank buying and its role as a geopolitical and inflation hedge.