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Gold continues its winning streak : Augmont Bullion report
Gold continues its winning streak
Gold maintains its winning streak above $3025 (~Rs 88500) as Trump’s tariffs are projected to exacerbate inflation and economic turmoil. Trump said he would hold Iran accountable for any strikes carried out by the Houthi group it supports in Yemen, as his administration escalated the largest US military operation in the Middle East since Trump came to the White House.
Central banks’ accumulation of gold reserves, inflation concerns, and rising demand after the pandemic have contributed to the surge in gold prices.
The Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.
Technical Triggers
Gold Apr Futures after achieving the $3000 (~Rs 88000) milestone, now is expected to extend this run up towards $3035 (~Rs 88800) and $3080 (~Rs 90000) in the coming weeks. After that, we can see some retracement and profit-booking, which can extend down to $2800 and $2700 maximum.While Silver May Futures has also climbed above $34(~Rs 100,000) on strong demand, the next resistance for the prices is $35(~Rs 103,000).
In the domestic market (MCX), gold and silver have hit unprecedented levels. Gold is currently hovering near the Rs. 1.53 lakh per 10-gram mark, while MCX silver has surged past Rs. 2.45 lakh per kg.
On the global stage, the momentum is slightly more restrained due to a powerhouse US Dollar, which has climbed to 99.3.
- Spot Gold: Trading marginally higher above $4,710 per ounce.
- Spot Silver: Initially rose to $76 per ounce before facing pressure and slipping toward the $75.6 range.
Crude Oil: Fueling Inflation Fears
As the conflict enters its ninth week, energy markets are on edge. Brent Crude has breached $106 per barrel, while US WTI rose above $95. These prices reflect the severe supply risk posed by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transit.
The failure of a second round of peace talks has dashed hopes for a swift resolution.
- Diplomatic Collapse: President Trump cancelled a high-profile meeting in Pakistan that was intended to bring US and Iranian envoys to the table.
- The Naval Standoff: Tehran refuses to negotiate while the US Navy blockade remains in place.
- The Nuclear Factor: While Iran expressed a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, they have shown no intent to abandon their nuclear program—a non-negotiable demand for Washington.
Investors are now bracing for a heavy week of policy decisions.
- The Fed Transition: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this Wednesday. This meeting is particularly significant as it likely marks Jerome Powell’s final session as Chair, with Kevin Warsh anticipated to succeed him in May.
- Global Policy: Decisions from the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are also due this week.
With inflation risks rising alongside oil prices, there is growing concern that central banks may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat the economic fallout of the Middle East crisis.
Market Sentiment: Fragile and uncertain. The “nerve-wracking” tension in the Middle East continues to act as the primary driver for both commodities and currency volatility.
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