International News
Precious Metals Face Macro Headwinds Amid Persistent Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Safe-Haven Dynamics
Gold faced downward pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields surged, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Easing inflation expectations have also diminished hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing, with markets currently pricing in only one possible rate cut later this year.
Geopolitical Developments
Geopolitical tensions escalated after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly launched a joint operation with Lebanon’s Hezbollah targeting sites in Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, reports of attacks on two oil tankers in the northern Persian Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait heightened fears of supply disruptions, pushing crude oil prices higher by more than 6%.
Macro-Economic Factors
U.S. inflation data for February came largely in line with expectations but remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual rate holding steady at 3.1%. Persistently elevated inflation continues to reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts.
Technical Triggers
• Gold continues to maintain a bullish bias, with prices expected to move towards $5,250 (~ Rs.163,500) and $5,300 (~ Rs.165,000) in the near term. Strong support is seen around the $5,000 (~ ₹158,500) level, which is likely to act as a key buying zone on any corrective dips.
• After achieving the target of $90, Silver also remains firmly supported and is continuing its upward momentum, with the next upside target around $95 (~ Rs.285,000). On the downside, strong support is placed near $80 (~ Rs.260,000), suggesting that any short-term corrections could attract fresh buying interest.
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $5000 / oz | $5300 / oz |
| Gold | Domestic | ₹158,500 / 10 gm | ₹165,000 / 10 gm |
| Silver | International | $80 / oz | $95 / oz |
| Silver | Domestic | ₹260,000 / kg | ₹285,000 / kg |
International News
Precious Metals Find Support On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Is Trading At Y Oversold Levels Near The Critical Support Zone Of $4,300, Silver Testing Key Support In The $66–$67 Range
- Price Movement – Gold and silver are consolidating near key support levels as markets digest a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside mounting concerns over inflation and the prospect of further interest rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments – President Trump confirmed that both parties are pursuing an immediate ceasefire, with final negotiations advancing. Israel and Iran announced a mutual halt to hostilities following a direct appeal from Washington. However, Tehran cautioned that it reserves the right to resume strikes if Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue.
- Macro-economic Signals – CME FedWatch data shows markets now pricing a greater than 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by December. Investors are closely watching May’s U.S. CPI and PPI releases, due Wednesday, for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy trajectory. The European Central Bank is also widely expected to deliver a rate increase this week.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is currently trading at deeply oversold levels near the critical support zone of $4,300 (approximately Rs. 1,54,000). A technical rebound of 3–4% is anticipated from current levels, driven by bottom-fishing activity. However, a sustained break below this support would shift the near-term bias decisively lower, exposing the $4,000–$4,100 range (approximately Rs. 1,50,000–Rs. 1,51,500) as the next downside target.
- Silver is similarly oversold, testing key support in the $66–$67 range (approximately Rs. 2,40,000–Rs. 2,42,000). As with gold, a 3–4% technical recovery is the base case on dip-buying, but a confirmed sustainability below this support would accelerate selling pressure toward $60 (approximately Rs. 2,20,000) in the short term.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4300/oz : $4500/oz : Rs 154,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $66/oz : $75/oz : Rs 240,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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