The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) forecasts a strong 2026 U.S. holiday shopping season (November 1–December 24), projecting retail sales excluding gas and autos to grow 5.5% year-over-year (YoY). This resilience reflects a robust labor market, rising household wealth, and broad-based consumer demand across income cohorts.

Key Drivers and Growth Channels

• Channel Performance: E-commerce continues to lead with an expected 11% YoY growth, but in-store sales are set to grow 3.6%—their strongest pace since 2022. This highlights the critical role of omnichannel strategies.
• Inflation Dynamics: Inflation accounts for 2.8 percentage points of the total 5.5% growth. Unlike last year’s tariff pressures, current price increases are driven by elevated energy/diesel costs and the massive AI infrastructure buildout.
• Calendar Shifts: A late Thanksgiving compresses the shopping window, pushing retailers toward early promotions. Additionally, Cyber Monday falling in November will shift significant online volume into the month.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence

AI is reshaping both prices and consumer behavior:

• Tech Inflation: High demand for memory chips and data infrastructure components has driven a 12.2% YoY increase in prices for info-processing equipment. Consequently, the consumer electronics category is projected to post outsized nominal sales growth (+10.7% YoY).
• AI Power Users: Consumers with paid AI subscriptions demonstrate distinct “optimization” habits. Data shows these users plan early, shop across a wider variety of boutique and specialty merchants, and aggressively target promotions during Thanksgiving weekend before transitioning to experience and hospitality spending in December.

Last-Minute Shopping Behavior

The final rush to Christmas offers key operational insights for retailers:

• In-Person and Malls: The final week before Christmas sees heavy physical store foot traffic, especially in enclosed shopping malls where consumers can complete multi-category purchases. Climate also plays a role: warmer-state residents (e.g., Florida, Nevada) are far more likely to make last-minute in-store runs than those in colder states.
• Transaction Value Trends: Average order values for children’s items peak near Black Friday, while premium categories—such as jewelry, cosmetics, luxury handbags, and department stores—see transaction values climb steadily from December 15, peaking on Christmas Eve as procrastinating shoppers pay a premium for convenience.

AI tools lower search costs for consumers, making price transparency higher than ever. Retailers must capture early November demand through targeted promotions before comparison tools push shoppers toward alternative or boutique brands.

Last-minute shoppers are price-inelastic and seeking speed. Malls and physical stores should maximize inventory for high-margin, rush-gift items (jewelry, cosmetics, designer goods, gift cards) in the final 10 days, leveraging store availability over promotional discounting.

Overall, the 2026 holiday season showcases an adaptable U.S. consumer using digital and AI tools to maximize value while continuing to drive broader economic momentum.