National News

WGC India gold market update: Investment appetite upheld

Published

2 years ago

March 20, 2025

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Highlights

Gold’s price momentum remains strong, breaching records, with domestic gold prices gaining 13% y-t-d
Price rises dampen jewellery purchases but boost old gold sales; investment demand is sustained: gold ETFs see healthy inflows in February, although below January’s peak
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gold holdings remains unchanged in February
Gold imports drop to an 11-month low in February.

Looking ahead

Expectation is growing that seasonal factors (auspicious days and festivals) and wedding related purchases could lend support to gold demand over the next couple of months. This may not, however, fully compensate for the price-driven constraints in jewellery demand.

Gold’s unprecedented momentum

Gold’s momentum has been exceptionally strong in 2025. So far this year prices have hit 13 new highs¹ and have crossed the psychological threshold of US$3,000/oz.² This performance, which has been replicated across major currencies, is driven by economic trends and sustained investment demand. Geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker USD, lowering of interest rates across economies, and inflation concerns are fuelling investment demand and influencing prices.

So far in 2025,³ the LBMA gold price AM in USD has risen by US$330/oz or 12%, to US$2,999/oz, with over 4% of that increase taking place in the first half of March. The Indian domestic landed price⁴ has risen in tandem, gaining 17% to reach a record INR88,946/10g. The larger gains can be attributed to weakness in the INR against the USD (1.3% depreciation y-t-d). However, given the weakness in demand – particularly in jewellery – the domestic gold price remains at a discount relative to the landed price. The discount, or spread, between local and landed prices averaged US$12/oz in the first half of March, slightly narrower than the US$17/oz spread observed in February.

Gold remains India’s top performing asset, with y-t-d gains of 13%,⁵ in sharp contrast with the negative return from domestic equities and notably surpassing gains in fixed income assets (bonds and bank deposits). This underscores the strategic significance of gold in investor portfolios.

Gold ETFs maintain momentum

Indian gold ETFs continued their inflow in February. While lower than January’s record high, they remained healthy, driven by broadening investor interest amid global economic and market uncertainty and the positive momentum in the gold price.

According to the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), gold ETFs recorded net inflows of INR19.8bn(~US$227mn) in February,⁶ marking the tenth consecutive month of positive flows. Although lower than January’s peak,⁷ this surpassed the average net inflow figure (INR14.8bn/US$175mn) recorded over the preceding nine months. February also witnessed significant redemptions, totalling INR7.8bn/US$89.7mn – the highest since April 2024. This may be attributed to profit taking as gold prices surged.

Despite these redemptions, investor participation remained strong with 0.3mn investor accounts (or folios) added during the month, bringing the total number of gold ETF investor accounts to a record 6.8mn, reflecting a growing investor interest in this instrument. Cumulative assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs grew to INR55.7bn(~US$6.4bn), up 7% m/m and 95% y/y. Overall holdings increased by 2.2t, taking collective holdings to 64.6t. These figures are in line with our initial estimates based on information available at the time.⁸ Rising investor interest has encouraged fund houses to introduce new gold ETF products, two of which were launched in February, bringing the total number of domestic gold ETFs to 20. At the end of February gold ETFs accounted for 0.9% of total AUM of mutual funds, up from 0.5% a year ago – an indication of the growing traction among investors.

RBI gold reserves stable, share of gold in forex reserves rising

The RBI held off buying gold in February, marking its second pause in three months, according to our estimates based on the bank’s weekly reporting of forex reserves. However, the bank has been increasing its gold holdings consistently since the beginning of 2024, purchasing an average of 6.3t in 12 of the last 14 months. While its gold reserves remained steady at 879t in February, the share of gold in total forex reserves rose to 11.5%,⁹ the highest on record and almost 4% higher than a year ago. This highlights the RBI’s continued diversification of its forex reserves.

Gold imports decline further

February gold imports fell to their lowest level since March 2024, marking the third consecutive month of decline and a steep drop from November’s highs. This trend reflects the weak demand environment amid high prices. According to Ministry of Commerce data¹⁰ the gold import bill for February totalled $2.3bn – a 14% m/m and 63% y/y decline. We estimate that import volume in February ranged between 25t and 30t.

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National News

Dhanteras-Diwali 2026: Strong Footfalls, Value-Led Growth Across India’s Jewellery Trade

Price easing, wedding demand, diamond and silver momentum and strong festive bookings are driving growth, while volumes hold steady

Published

9 hours ago

November 12, 2026

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Dhanteras Diwali 2026 opened on a confident note for India’s jewellery industry. On Dhanteras Retailers and industry bodies reported higher footfalls, double-digit value growth and a visible shift in what customers are buying. Volumes, however, are largely flat, and the growth is being carried by price.

The recent decline in prices of gold has encouraged consumers to seize the opportunity to buy gold ornaments during Dhanteras and Diwali season in India. According to the GJC, gold jewellery sales climbed 15–20% over the two key festive days to reach Rs.62,000 crore. Preliminary estimates from the All India Jewellers and Goldsmith Federation (AIJGF) put combined gold and silver festive sales past Rs.66,000 crore.

Market Size and Growth

GJC estimates India’s Dhanteras gold business at roughly Rs.60,000 crore on preliminary assessment. Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC, says value growth is expected at 15–20% over last year, with volumes “almost at the same level. ” He calls it “a very encouraging start for the jewellery industry.”

Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and National President, IBJA, offers a similar read. Jewellers expect sales value to rise 20–30% while gold volumes stay roughly flat, so growth comes mostly from higher prices rather than more grams sold. He notes that sentiment is clearly better than through most of 2026, though people are spending carefully. The correction has brought buyers back, and many who postponed purchases while prices were climbing are now completing them.

Dr. Saurabh Gadgil, CMD, PNG Jewellers, says industry indications point to 25–30% incremental performance. He attributes this to easing prices, strong pre-Dhanteras bookings and a long Diwali weekend. He further adds that silver jewellery and articles are in high demand, a pattern echoed by other brands that observed smaller silver coins are selling.

Jignesh Mehta, Founder & MD, Divine Solitaires, reports 30% growth in festive sales. Consumers place greater emphasis on transparency, authenticity and quality assurance. He cites the company’s 123-parameter Quality Guarantee and standardised pricing as the response.

Sandeep Kohli, CEO of Indriya – Aditya Birla Group Jewellery, stated that, as expected, the company witnessed a strong surge in footfall and sales across its retail network. All 100 stores nationwide maintained positive momentum, with customers continuing to show strong interest in Indriya’s high-quality jewellery designs.

Varghese Alukka, Managing Director, Jos Alukkas, reports that festive sales improved on last year through a wider customer base, although average bill values dipped slightly.

Harshal Khandelwal- Director- Khandelwal Jewellers Akola Pvt Ltd says that with their exclusive Book & Relax offer, patrons securing their favorite gold jewelry and coins ahead of time, entirely free from the anxiety of fluctuating rates.

What Customers Are Buying

Gold: Sachin Jain, Regional CEO India, World Gold Council, notes strong walk-ins across retail markets. Buyers are choosing jewellery, coins, bars, ETFs and digital gold. He says the recent price moderation has given buyers relief.

Ramesh Kalyanaraman, Executive Director, Kalyan Jewellers said shoppers favored lighter pendants, bangles and chains, as well as smaller gold and silver coins.

Ashish Pethe, Partner, Waman Hari Pethe Jewellers, reports tremendous enthusiasm for gold jewellery despite price fluctuations, with the trust and emotional connect people share with gold remaining strong. Interest spans both traditional and contemporary lightweight designs.

Suvankar Sen, MD & CEO of Senco Gold Ltd, reported that diamond jewellery sales had grown impressively, with sales value increasing by over 25% year on year, supported by higher store footfalls. He also highlighted the growing consumer interest in natural diamond solitaires for gifting, special milestones and self-purchase, particularly smaller solitaires and lightweight designs. In Men’s jewellery, he flags growing interest, with Senco’s Aham line catering to men who see jewellery as personal style.

Silver and multi-metal: Ansh Anand, CEO, Punjab Jewels, reports strong interest across gold, diamond, platinum and silver. He further states, that customers are prioritising design, craftsmanship and quality alongside investment value, and festive enthusiasm has held despite elevated metal prices.

Key Trends

Jayantilal Challani, Chairman, Challani Group of Companies, observes a visible shift from heavy traditional jewellery to everyday elegance. He describes buyer mood as “calculated optimism and value-driven purchasing,” with high gold rates prompting disciplined shopping.

Asavari Pednekar, MD, Jagannath Gangaram Pednekar (JGP) Jewellers, says the desire to buy gold remains strong, but decisions are increasingly shaped by price movements and affordability. Consumers are adapting budgets and evaluating purchases carefully, with value, design, craftsmanship and sentiment guiding buying. Joyalukkas’ slightly lower average bill value reflects the same trade-down.

Old gold exchange is a growth lever. PNG’s, Saurabh Gadgil says exchange is playing a big role, including in tier 2 and tier 3 cities.

Weddings and savings-led purchases. Suvankar Sen reports strong participation from wedding customers and from families buying jewellery as savings.

Outlook

Sentiment is positive heading into Diwali and the wedding season. The WGC’s, Sachin Jain says the day’s response “offers an encouraging outlook for the year end.” Saurabh Gadgil notes that sales usually pick up in the second half of Dhanteras, so early figures may understate the final tally. Jayantilal Challani adds that grassroots spirit remains intact, which gives hope to jewellers who sell big and heavy pieces.

Dhanteras 2026 is a value-led recovery. Price easing, wedding demand, diamond and silver momentum and strong festive bookings are driving growth, while volumes hold steady. Retailers who combine lighter designs, smaller-ticket gold and silver coins, transparent pricing and exchange offers are best placed to gain.