International News
US sees modest month-over-month retail sales growth amidst consumer worries over inflation
Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau showed modest month-over-month retail sales growth in February amid consumer worries over inflation and Washington policy decisions, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“Lower-than-expected consumer spending in the first couple of months of the year likely reflected payback for very strong spending in the fourth quarter and weather-related events since then,” Jack Kleinhenz said. “Moreover, these results show that households are apprehensive and carefully navigating lingering inflation and turmoil related to changing economic policies. Regardless of the softer spending, consumer fundamentals remain healthy and intact so far, supported by low unemployment, steady income growth and other household finances. American shoppers will likely continue to spend as long as unemployment remains low and job growth continues.”
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in February were up 0.2% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.2% month over month and an increase of 3.9% year over year in January.
February’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month but down 0.2% unadjusted year over year because of the comparison against unusually high sales in February 2024. Core sales were down 1.2% year over year on a three-month moving average, also skewed by last February.
The results come after core retail sales grew 4.2% year over year during the 2024 holiday season and 3.6% for the full year.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month in February but up 4.11% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.27% month over month and an increase of 5.72% year over year in January.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.
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Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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