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Gold Holds Steady On MCX As Middle East Tensions Cloud Market Direction

Bullion Trades Range-Bound As Strait Of Hormuz Uncertainty Fuels Inflation FearsĀ 

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Gold prices were largely unchanged at the open on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Tuesday, as investors weighed persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against shifting expectations for global monetary policy.

The MCX gold May futures contract edged up 0.01% to Rs. 1,52,417 per 10 grams in early trade, while silver for May delivery declined 0.55% to Rs. 2,51,160 per kilogram. The muted start followed a cautious global tone, with bullion markets struggling to find direction amid conflicting macro signals.

Internationally, spot gold held above the $4,800-an-ounce mark in early trading but later slipped about 0.5%, even as crude oil prices fell nearly 1%. Spot silver also weakened, dropping roughly 1%. The divergence underscores a market caught between safe-haven demand and rising concerns over tighter financial conditions.

Investor sentiment remains tethered to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies. Escalating tensions in the region have fueled fears of a prolonged disruption, amplifying inflationary pressures at a time when central banks are already navigating a delicate policy balance.

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National News

Smuggled Gold Distorting India’s Bullion Market

Sharp Rise In Smuggled Gold, Driven Largely By The May 2026 Hike In Import Duty To 15%, Which Has Made The Grey Market Significantly Cheaper Than Legal Channels and Squeezed Legitimate Dealers and Jewellers

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India’s bullion market is being skewed by a sharp rise in smuggled gold, driven largely by the May 2026 hike in import duty to 15%, which has made the grey market significantly cheaper than legal channels and squeezed legitimate dealers and jewellers.

Market distortion and price gap

  • Smuggled gold is now selling at discounts of up to Rs 8,000 per 10 grams compared with official prices, creating a wide arbitrage that undercuts compliant traders.
  • Industry executives warn that this price gap is a clear signal of an active grey market, disadvantaging genuine bullion dealers and organised jewellers who pay full duty and taxes.

Scale of illegal inflows

  • Industry estimates suggest more than 100 tonnes of gold could enter India through illegal channels in 2026, echoing past surges in smuggling after earlier duty hikes.
  • Despite the higher tariff, India’s gold import bill rose 24% to a record $71.9 billion in FY26, even as physical volumes fell to about 721 tonnes, indicating persistent demand being met partly via unofficial routes.

Enforcement response

  • Revenue intelligence agencies, particularly the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), have intensified operations against organised smuggling networks using airports, land borders, coastal routes and domestic road transport
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