International News
US sees modest month-over-month retail sales growth amidst consumer worries over inflation

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau showed modest month-over-month retail sales growth in February amid consumer worries over inflation and Washington policy decisions, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“Lower-than-expected consumer spending in the first couple of months of the year likely reflected payback for very strong spending in the fourth quarter and weather-related events since then,” Jack Kleinhenz said. “Moreover, these results show that households are apprehensive and carefully navigating lingering inflation and turmoil related to changing economic policies. Regardless of the softer spending, consumer fundamentals remain healthy and intact so far, supported by low unemployment, steady income growth and other household finances. American shoppers will likely continue to spend as long as unemployment remains low and job growth continues.”
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in February were up 0.2% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.2% month over month and an increase of 3.9% year over year in January.
February’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month but down 0.2% unadjusted year over year because of the comparison against unusually high sales in February 2024. Core sales were down 1.2% year over year on a three-month moving average, also skewed by last February.
The results come after core retail sales grew 4.2% year over year during the 2024 holiday season and 3.6% for the full year.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month in February but up 4.11% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.27% month over month and an increase of 5.72% year over year in January.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.

International News
Gold continues upward march;Bank of America forecasts $5,000/oz for 2026

Gold prices in India saw a modest rise on Wednesday today Oct 15, mirroring an uptick in international markets as renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of further US interest rate cuts bolstered demand for safe-haven assets.24k gold traded at Rs.1,28,360/10gm after gaining ₹10 in early trade, while silver prices increased by Rs.100 to Rs.1,89,100 per kilogram.
Gold prices surged to a record high of $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025. Investors flocked to safe-haven metals amid trade tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations. U.S. December gold futures jumped 57% year-to-date. Bank of America raised its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, warning of possible near-term corrections.
Gold prices soared to an unprecedented $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025, marking a historic milestone for the yellow metal. The rally comes as investors worldwide seek safety in hard assets amid a turbulent global economic backdrop marked by escalating trade tensions, slowing growth, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The sharp surge in bullion prices has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and aggressive monetary easing. As inflation pressures remain sticky and central banks pivot toward dovish policies, gold has reasserted its role as a hedge against both currency debasement and market volatility.
In futures trading, U.S. December gold contracts have skyrocketed nearly 57% so far this year, underscoring the strength of investor demand across both institutional and retail segments. Analysts note that central bank buying—particularly from emerging markets—has added further momentum to the rally, with several countries diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
Reflecting this bullish sentiment, Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing continued monetary easing, geopolitical instability, and robust central bank accumulation. However, the bank also cautioned that short-term corrections are likely, given the rapid pace of the recent run-up and potential bouts of profit-taking.
Overall, gold’s meteoric rise underscores a broader shift toward safe-haven assets, as investors navigate a world increasingly defined by economic fragmentation, shifting interest rate cycles, and persistent geopolitical risks.
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