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US sees modest month-over-month retail sales growth amidst  consumer worries over inflation

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Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau showed modest month-over-month retail sales growth in February amid consumer worries over inflation and Washington policy decisions, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“Lower-than-expected consumer spending in the first couple of months of the year likely reflected payback for very strong spending in the fourth quarter and weather-related events since then,” Jack Kleinhenz said. “Moreover, these results show that households are apprehensive and carefully navigating lingering inflation and turmoil related to changing economic policies. Regardless of the softer spending, consumer fundamentals remain healthy and intact so far, supported by low unemployment, steady income growth and other household finances. American shoppers will likely continue to spend as long as unemployment remains low and job growth continues.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in February were up 0.2% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.2% month over month and an increase of 3.9% year over year in January.

February’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month but down 0.2% unadjusted year over year because of the comparison against unusually high sales in February 2024. Core sales were down 1.2% year over year on a three-month moving average, also skewed by last February.

The results come after core retail sales grew 4.2% year over year during the 2024 holiday season and 3.6% for the full year.

Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month in February but up 4.11% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.27% month over month and an increase of 5.72% year over year in January.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.

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International News

Indian Jewellery Exporters Breathe Easy temporarily as US Court Blocks Tariff Rise

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In a significant development for Indian gem and jewellery exporters, a US Federal court has temporarily halted President Donald Trump’s proposed ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, which were set to substantially increase duties on imported goods, including jewellery. The ruling has been welcomed by the industry, which had been preparing for tariff increases from 6% to as high as 26%.

The Court of International Trade in Manhattan deemed the executive orders issued on April 2 as “unlawful.” These orders aimed to implement a 10% baseline tariff on most US imports, with even steeper rates for countries with substantial trade surpluses — including China, the European Union, and initially, India. The 26% tariff targeting Indian gem and jewellery exports was scheduled to take effect on April 9 but had been postponed to July 9 due to ongoing legal challenges.

According to a newspaper report, the proposed tariff hike would have had a severe financial impact on exporters. Jewellery manufacturers operating in SEEPZ, which account for 64% of India’s $3.5 billion in annual jewellery shipments to the US, would have seen upfront duties per million-dollar consignment jump from $60,000 to $320,000. This would have further strained their cash flows at a time when global demand remains weak.

While the court’s decision does not address all of the industry’s challenges, it provides crucial temporary relief and highlights the need for consistent trade policies to support India’s standing in the global gem and jewellery market.

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Ruling court nullifies Trump tariffs – AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Gold stabilizes in a range as a court decision overturns Trump’s tariffs, increasing risk appetite and depressing the greenback. After the U.S. Court of International Trade determined on Wednesday that Trump had overreached himself by using emergency powers to impose high tariffs on the majority of the nation’s trading partners, gold prices rose.
  • On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial update on the country’s first-quarter economic growth. According to the agency, the US GDP decreased by 0.2% over that time, which was less than the 0.4% decline that was anticipated and less than the 0.3% decline that the bureau had initially projected.
  • While acknowledging certain stagflation concerns, policymakers pointed out that the Committee may have to make tough trade-offs if inflation turns out to be more persistent and growth and employment prospects deteriorate.

Technical Triggers  

  • Gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $3270 (~Rs 95000) and $3370 (~Rs 96400) in the near term. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 2-3% movement.
  • Silver prices are expected to trade in the range of $32.5(~Rs 96000) and $34(~Rs 99000) in the near term.

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International News

Swarovski Names Kolja Kiofsky as Chief Commercial Officer, Effective January 2026

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Swarovski has announced the promotion of Kolja Kiofsky to Chief Commercial Officer, effective January 2026. Currently serving as General Manager of North America, Kiofsky will take over from Michele Molon, who is set to depart in July 2025 for a new opportunity.

In his new role, Kiofsky will lead Swarovski’s global commercial operations, overseeing omni-channel strategy, global sales, commercial architecture, and real estate. He will relocate from New York to the company’s corporate headquarters in Männedorf, Switzerland, and report directly to CEO Alexis Nasard.

Kolja Kiofsky’s promotion to chief commercial officer marks an exciting new chapter for Swarovski. Kolja’s leadership and strategic vision have been pivotal in driving growth and transformation in North America,” said Nasard.

“At the same time, Swarovski extends its heartfelt gratitude to Michele Molon for his outstanding contributions and dedication to our company and brand. Michele leaves with a strong business and organizational legacy.”

Until Kiofsky assumes the role in January, Ilse Roeffen, Head of Emerging Markets and Businesses, will serve as interim Chief Commercial Officer.

Reacting to the announcement, Kiofsky said, “I’m incredibly honored and excited to step into the role of chief commercial officer after 15 amazing years with Swarovski. This company has been a huge part of my professional journey, and I’m proud to have the opportunity to contribute to its legacy of innovation, craftsmanship and excellence. I want to extend my sincere gratitude to Michele Molon who has been not only a brilliant leader but also a true partner and mentor throughout the years. I look forward to building on the strong foundation he laid and driving our commercial strategy into its next phase.”

The promotion comes as Swarovski reported a 6% increase in revenue in 2024, reaching €1.906 billion—signaling strong momentum for the heritage crystal brand.

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