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Silver prices surge on trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions

As of the latest data, silver on the US COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is fluctuating around $37.35 per ounce, while in Mumbai, prices have climbed to ₹1,11,000 per kilogram.

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Due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, silver has surged to a 14-year high on global markets and reached an all-time high on Indian domestic markets. The precious metal recently achieved a decisive technical breakout, trading above the key level of $37.5 per ounce.

In the first half of 2025, global investment in silver has increased sharply. This uptrend has been fueled by a combination of geopolitical uncertainties—including regional conflicts and unstable trade agreements—and economic concerns such as persistent inflation fears and currency volatility. Investor sentiment has also been strengthened by strong price expectations and silver’s reputation as a reliable hedge against economic and political risk.

In June, this wave of demand pushed silver prices to a 13-year high, marking a significant milestone for the metal. Over the first six months of the year, silver prices recorded an impressive rise of 25%, nearly mirroring gold’s 26% gain over the same period. Earlier in the year, the gold-to-silver ratio was at historically high levels, making silver look undervalued relative to gold and prompting fresh buying from institutional and retail investors alike.

Beyond investment-driven demand, positive developments in industrial metals also played a role in silver’s rally. Renewed trade negotiations between the United States and China improved market sentiment, leading to expectations of stronger industrial demand for silver in electronics, photovoltaics, and other sectors. This combination of financial investment and anticipated industrial use has reinforced silver’s upward momentum in global markets.

Overall, silver’s performance in the first half of 2025 reflects its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, benefitting simultaneously from safe-haven demand and optimism about global manufacturing recovery. If these trends continue, analysts suggest silver could see further gains in the second half of the year.

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International News

Precious Metals Bounce Back As Iran Ceasefire Hopes Rise, But Fed Rate Fears Loom: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Gold Remains Under Short-term Pressure from Expectations of Fed Tightening and a Strong Dollar. However, Investor Positioning in Gold Looks Relatively Light After Months of ETF Outflows.

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Price MovementGold has bounced back from its key support levels near $3960, and Silver has recovered from $55, after an Iranian official reportedly received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire. The continuing US-Iran standoff has kept investors worried about energy-driven inflation and the possibility of further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a US rate hike in December, up sharply from 73% just a week earlier, based on the CME FedWatch tool.

Geopolitical Tensions – Despite the Houthis announcing fresh military action, both Tehran and Washington appear keen to restart talks and stop the escalating attacks that have nearly destroyed a fragile interim agreement reached last month. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire, aimed at rescuing the interim deal and eventually leading to a lasting peace agreement.

Macro-Economic SignalsGold remains under short-term pressure from expectations of Fed tightening and a strong dollar. However, investor positioning in gold looks relatively light after months of ETF outflows, meaning further price drops may be limited. Strong physical demand, especially from China, along with continued central bank buying, is providing solid support to the gold market.

Technical Triggers

If Gold fails to hold above $4,000 (~Rs.1,41,000), it could slide further to $3,900 (~Rs.1,38,000). But if it manages to stay above $4,200, a fresh rally could take it toward $4,500 (~Rs.1,55,000).

For Silver, a strong move above $63 (~Rs.2,35,000) could push prices toward $70–71 (~Rs.2,51,000–2,55,000). On the other hand, a fall below $55 (~Rs.2,14,000) may drag it down to $50 (~Rs.2,00,000).

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $3900/oz
: $4160/oz
: Rs 137,000/10 gm
: Rs 147,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $55/oz
: $63/oz  
: Rs 214,000/kg
: Rs 235,000/kg
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