International News
Silver prices surge on trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions
As of the latest data, silver on the US COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is fluctuating around $37.35 per ounce, while in Mumbai, prices have climbed to ₹1,11,000 per kilogram.
Due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, silver has surged to a 14-year high on global markets and reached an all-time high on Indian domestic markets. The precious metal recently achieved a decisive technical breakout, trading above the key level of $37.5 per ounce.
In the first half of 2025, global investment in silver has increased sharply. This uptrend has been fueled by a combination of geopolitical uncertainties—including regional conflicts and unstable trade agreements—and economic concerns such as persistent inflation fears and currency volatility. Investor sentiment has also been strengthened by strong price expectations and silver’s reputation as a reliable hedge against economic and political risk.
In June, this wave of demand pushed silver prices to a 13-year high, marking a significant milestone for the metal. Over the first six months of the year, silver prices recorded an impressive rise of 25%, nearly mirroring gold’s 26% gain over the same period. Earlier in the year, the gold-to-silver ratio was at historically high levels, making silver look undervalued relative to gold and prompting fresh buying from institutional and retail investors alike.
Beyond investment-driven demand, positive developments in industrial metals also played a role in silver’s rally. Renewed trade negotiations between the United States and China improved market sentiment, leading to expectations of stronger industrial demand for silver in electronics, photovoltaics, and other sectors. This combination of financial investment and anticipated industrial use has reinforced silver’s upward momentum in global markets.
Overall, silver’s performance in the first half of 2025 reflects its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, benefitting simultaneously from safe-haven demand and optimism about global manufacturing recovery. If these trends continue, analysts suggest silver could see further gains in the second half of the year.
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Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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