Connect with us

International News

Precious Metals Tied In A Range On US-Iran Ceasefire Deal AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

The Dominant Macro Narrative Centred On The Evolving US–Iran Conflict and Firmer US Inflation Data,

Published

on

Gold and silver closed the week trading weak with a negative bias. The dominant macro narrative centred on the evolving US–Iran conflict and firmer US inflation data, which together kept bullion on the defensive. While easing geopolitical risk premia weighed on safe-haven demand, a softer dollar and sub-target monthly PCE prints lent partial support, leaving prices range-bound with a cautiously constructive undertone heading into a catalyst-heavy first week of June.

Geopolitics: US–Iran Ceasefire Progress

Reports indicate the US and Iran may extend their ceasefire, with a tentative 60-day extension reportedly agreed to enable formal nuclear talks — though President Trump had yet to approve the terms. Despite the optimism, continued disruptions to shipping and energy infrastructure kept oil prices elevated, reinforcing a cautious Federal Reserve stance. Global oil prices nonetheless tumbled roughly 20% from their 2026 highs as investors grew increasingly confident in a durable deal that would reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A de-escalation removes a key risk premium that had underpinned bullion.

US Inflation and the Fed

Thursday’s PCE data showed both headline and core monthly inflation came in below expectations, though annual readings remained well above the Fed’s target at 3.8% (headline) and 3.3% (core). May figures captured the fastest pace of price gains in three years during April, reinforcing expectations that the Fed holds rates unchanged well into 2027. This persistent higher-for-longer environment remains a structural headwind for non-yielding bullion. Markets price the federal funds rate steady through year-end, yet still assign roughly a 46% probability to a December rate hike.

Currencies: Dollar and Rupee

The DXY hovered near 99 through the week, as reports of a tentative US–Iran peace agreement eased concerns over inflation and future rate hikes; the softer dollar offered partial support to gold. The rupee strengthened materially, with USDINR appreciating from 97 to 95 over two weeks to three-week highs, as sustained Reserve Bank of India intervention bolstered currency confidence. Attention now turns to the RBI’s June 5 policy decision, where most economists polled by Reuters expect the key rate to be held unchanged at 5.25%.

Silver Dynamics

Silver suffered a sharper intraweek correction than gold, reflecting its dual sensitivity to macro rate expectations and industrial demand. Gold posted a modest 0.8% monthly decline, pressured by inflation concerns and the prospect of prolonged elevated rates. For silver, a structural supply deficit alongside green-energy demand from solar and electric vehicles remains intact, providing durable medium-term support beneath the metal even as near-term volatility persists.

Outlook and Sentiment

Cautiously bullish. Ceasefire progress, a weaker DXY, and sub-target monthly PCE are constructive, but persistent above-target annual inflation and a Fed firmly on hold cap near-term upside. The next major catalysts to watch are Trump’s approval of the Iran deal terms and the US jobs report on June 6.

Continue Reading
Advertisement JewelBuzz Banner
Click to comment
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted

International News

WGC Report-Digital Gold: Unlocking a $700bn Opportunity

Yes—Digital Gold Could Become The Next Major Growth Market For Gold, But Only If The Industry Solves Trust, Access, Utility and Cost.

Published

on

The World Gold Council (WGC) and Boston Consulting Group estimate that digital gold could unlock up to US$700 billion in latent demand over the long term, although this is a potential-demand estimate rather than a five-year forecast.

What “digital gold” means

The report defines digital gold as two related product categories: vaulted digital gold (digitally represented claims on allocated physical gold) and tokenised gold (blockchain-based tokens backed by physical gold). Together, they currently account for roughly US$45–55 billion, less than 1% of the global gold market, which the WGC values at about US$13 trillion.

Momentum is nonetheless visible. Tokenised gold has grown about fivefold since late 2024 to around US$6 billion, while cumulative spot trading volumes exceeded US$90 billion in Q1 2026—more than during all of 2025.

The $700bn opportunity

The headline figure represents the additional demand that could emerge if the main barriers to adoption were removed at scale. Nearly nine in ten surveyed retail investors said they would consider digital gold under the right conditions, based on a survey of more than 12,000 investors and interviews with 20 industry experts.

The global digital-gold market—currently valued at US $ 45–55 billion—is positioned for significant expansion. In their base-case outlook, the market is projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 27%, reaching US $ 160–170 billion by 2031. Under a bull-case scenario, market valuation could climb even higher, reaching US $ 270–280 billion over the same period. Furthermore, if key adoption barriers such as regulatory clarity, pricing, and platform trust are fully addressed, the long-term latent demand for digital gold could unlock up to US700 billion. 

Genuinely new gold demand by 2031. About US$95 billion, net of displacement

The crucial distinction is that US$700bn is not a market-size prediction for 2031. It is the theoretical upside if trust, distribution, product usefulness and pricing improve sufficiently; the base case is far more conservative.

Four barriers to adoption

Trust is the decisive barrier. Nearly four in five investors prioritise trusting the provider, and they want proof that products are safe, legitimate, transparently backed and redeemable for physical gold; clearer regulation and consumer protection are also central.

Access matters because familiar distribution channels dramatically increase uptake. In markets such as China, India and Indonesia, where digital gold is embedded in super-apps, payment platforms and banking apps, penetration is up to seven times higher than in markets without such channels.

Utility could transform gold from a passive store of value into a usable financial asset. The most attractive new feature is yield generation through lending or collateral use, followed by payments functionality.

Cost remains a prerequisite. Digital gold must be price-competitive with physical bullion and gold ETFs; an uncompetitive price is the second most common barrier cited by investors.

Why it may create new demand

The report argues that digital gold is more likely to expand the gold market than merely shift investors from ETFs, coins or bars. About 65% of latent demand comes from people who do not yet own gold, and 52% of current digital-gold investors held no gold before their first digital purchase.

This makes digital gold a potential on-ramp: among those first-time digital-gold buyers, 92% subsequently bought other forms of gold. Even after allowing for some switching between gold formats, the base case implies around US$95 billion of genuinely new demand by 2031.

Who will drive growth

Younger investors are the immediate growth engine. Awareness reaches 50% among 25–34-year-olds, versus 23% among those aged 55 and older, and younger cohorts are twice as likely to say they would invest if entry barriers were addressed.

This aligns with the broader tokenisation of finance. As blockchain-based investment products become more mainstream, gold’s physical backing may give it a credibility advantage over purely digital assets—provided issuers can demonstrate custody, redemption rights and regulatory compliance.

Could it be the next major gold growth market?

Potentially, yes—but conditionally. The case for digital gold is strong because it combines gold’s established safe-haven and store-of-value role with digital accessibility, fractional ownership, faster transferability and possible new financial uses. The WGC’s own base case implies a market roughly three times its current size by 2031.

However, digital gold will remain a niche if providers cannot deliver:

  • Transparent, auditable proof that tokens are fully backed by physical gold.
  • Simple, legally robust redemption into physical gold or cash.
  • Clear regulation and investor protections.
  • Distribution through mainstream banking, payments and investment apps.
  • Fees competitive with ETFs and physical bullion.
  • Useful features such as collateral, lending or payments—without compromising safety.

Assessment

Digital gold is best viewed as a high-potential distribution and product innovation, not an automatic replacement for physical gold or ETFs. Its biggest contribution may be bringing first-time, younger and digitally native investors into gold, then encouraging them to hold other gold formats as their allocations mature.

If the industry establishes trusted infrastructure and interoperable standards, the US$700bn latent-demand estimate becomes a plausible long-run ceiling. If not, the market may still grow, but likely toward the report’s bear-case trajectory of roughly US$70–80 billion by 2031, driven mainly by wealth growth rather than conversion of untapped demand.

Continue Reading

Trending

JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

We would like to hear from you...

GET WHATSAPP NEWS ALERTS

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x