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Gold, Silver Rebound Slightly Amid Softening Dollar and Geopolitical Caution

The Modest Rally Is Driven By A Softening US Dollar, Though Trading Remains Heavily Cautious As Market Participants Keep A Close Eye On Volatile US-Iran Peace Negotiations

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Domestic and international bullion prices ticked upward on Wednesday morning, recovering from Tuesday’s sharp losses. The modest rally is driven by a softening US dollar, though trading remains heavily cautious as market participants keep a close eye on volatile US-Iran peace negotiations and critical upcoming US economic data.

  • MCX Gold Futures (June 2026): Up Rs. 215 to Rs.1,57,898 per 10 grams. MCX Silver Futures (July 2026): Up Rs. 2,000 (0.7%) to Rs. 2,72,628 per kg. Spot Gold: Rose 0.2% to $4,516.76 per ounce. Spot Silver: Gained 0.6% to $77.40 per ounce.

The morning’s gains follow a brutal Tuesday session in the national capital, where retail gold prices tumbled by Rs. 2,800 to Rs. 1,62,400 per 10 grams (inclusive of all taxes), down from Monday’s closing of Rs. 1,65,200. Analysts note that escalating military friction earlier in the week pushed safe-haven capital into the US dollar, temporarily depressing non-yielding bullion.

While investors are tracking volatile crude oil prices and Treasury yields, the US-Iran conflict remains front and center:

  • Military Friction: Cautious sentiment persists following “defensive” US strikes on Iranian missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent Iranian retailatory fire. Iran accused the US of breaching an active ceasefire.
  • Peace Framework: Despite weekend optimism surrounding a framework peace deal, US official Marco Rubio indicated that finalizing an agreement to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could still take “a few days.”

Bullion’s upside momentum faces headwinds from global monetary policy uncertainty. Higher energy costs have fueled sticky inflation concerns, leading markets to price in a near 40% probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike by December. Highlighting these persistent macroeconomic pressures, banking giant UBS reduced its year-end gold price target by $400 to $5,500.

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GJEPC Auckland Visit Targets Growth In India-NZ Jewellery Trade

The Opportunity In New Zealand Is Significant Relative To The Current Level Of Jewellery Trade. India’s Gem and Jewellery Exports To New Zealand Rose 50.56% To US$25.46 Million In FY2025-26, From US$16.91 Million In FY2024-25.

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The GJEPC trade delegation’s Auckland programme has highlighted the scope for expanding India’s gem and jewellery exports to New Zealand as the two countries move towards implementing their recently concluded Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

The Auckland visit was part of GJEPC’s Australia and New Zealand trade delegation, held from 20-26 August 2026, with the delegation focused on connecting Indian manufacturers and exporters with buyers and industry stakeholders across the two markets.

The opportunity in New Zealand is significant relative to the current level of jewellery trade. India’s gem and jewellery exports to New Zealand rose 50.56% to US$25.46 million in FY2025-26, from US$16.91 million in FY2024-25.

The recently concluded India-New Zealand FTA is expected to create further opportunities for Indian exporters. New Zealand has committed to duty-free access for Indian exports across 100% of its tariff lines once the agreement enters into force.

On 26th August, Vijay Mangukiya, Convener – International Events, GJEPC and leader of the delegation, met Dr. Madan Mohan Sethi, Consul General of India in Auckland. Mangukiya has said the delegation was aimed at bringing Indian manufacturers and exporters closer to buyers and industry stakeholders in both Australia and New Zealand, with the objective of identifying new business opportunities and developing long-term partnerships.

The delegation’s Auckland market visits covered a broad cross-section of the local jewellery sector, including Michael Hill, Wallace Bishop, Hardy Brothers, Prouds, and Partridge Jewellers. The delegation also observed international luxury and contemporary jewellery brands including Van Cleef & Arpels, Roberto Coin, Messika and FOPE, reflecting the competitive environment in which Indian exporters would be seeking to establish or expand relationships.

India’s exports of individual jewellery categories to New Zealand also recorded strong growth in FY2025-26. Gold jewellery exports rose 84% to US$17.47 million, while silver jewellery exports doubled to US$0.91 million. Lab-grown diamond exports rose 2% to US$0.63 million, and imitation jewellery increased 13.16% to US$0.43 million. Cut and polished diamond exports were US$5.76 million.

The figures underline the growing contribution of finished jewellery to India’s New Zealand business. With the FTA expected to improve market access and the Auckland market showing demand across gold, diamonds, coloured stones, pearls and branded jewellery, GJEPC’s delegation is seeking to convert this existing growth into deeper commercial relationships.

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