International News
Safe-haven demand for precious metals, including silver, weakened amid signs of easing global trade tensions
Silver price struggles as the Trump administration to add several Chinese semiconductor firms to its export blacklist. Safe-haven demand for precious metals, including Silver, has weakened amid signs of easing global trade tensions. Silver’s downside could be capped as US Dollar softens following economic data that has heightened odds of Fed rate cuts.
Recently, the price of silver has been fluctuating, especially after news that the United States plans to ban exports to several Chinese semiconductor companies. This development, along with changing global trade relations and economic data from the United States, has made the silver market more unpredictable. In this essay, I will explain why silver prices are moving the way they are, what factors are influencing these changes, and what might happen next.
One of the main reasons silver prices are under pressure is because the Trump administration announced plans to add several Chinese chip companies to its export blacklist. Silver is an important material in electronics and chip manufacturing, so any news affecting the semiconductor industry can also impact silver prices. When the US restricts Chinese chip firms, it creates uncertainty about future demand for silver in electronics, which can make investors nervous and push prices down.
Another factor affecting silver is the recent improvement in US-China trade relations. Both countries have agreed to lower tariffs on each other’s goods, which is a big step towards reducing trade tensions. For example, the US plans to cut tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. When trade tensions ease, investors feel more confident about the global economy and are less likely to buy safe-haven assets like silver. This has led to a decrease in demand for silver as a protective investment.
Despite these pressures, silver’s price drop might not be too severe. Recently, the US Dollar has weakened because of soft economic data, such as lower inflation and retail sales figures. A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for international buyers, which can help support prices. Additionally, there is growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. Lower interest rates usually make precious metals like silver more attractive, since they do not pay interest or dividends.
It is important to remember that silver is not just a safe-haven asset; it is also widely used in industry. For example, silver is essential for making electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles. As China is a major manufacturing hub, any changes in its industrial activity can influence silver demand. If the trade truce allows Chinese factories to operate more smoothly, industrial demand for silver could increase, even if safe-haven demand falls.
International News
Precious Metals Find Support On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Is Trading At Y Oversold Levels Near The Critical Support Zone Of $4,300, Silver Testing Key Support In The $66–$67 Range
- Price Movement – Gold and silver are consolidating near key support levels as markets digest a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside mounting concerns over inflation and the prospect of further interest rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments – President Trump confirmed that both parties are pursuing an immediate ceasefire, with final negotiations advancing. Israel and Iran announced a mutual halt to hostilities following a direct appeal from Washington. However, Tehran cautioned that it reserves the right to resume strikes if Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue.
- Macro-economic Signals – CME FedWatch data shows markets now pricing a greater than 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by December. Investors are closely watching May’s U.S. CPI and PPI releases, due Wednesday, for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy trajectory. The European Central Bank is also widely expected to deliver a rate increase this week.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is currently trading at deeply oversold levels near the critical support zone of $4,300 (approximately Rs. 1,54,000). A technical rebound of 3–4% is anticipated from current levels, driven by bottom-fishing activity. However, a sustained break below this support would shift the near-term bias decisively lower, exposing the $4,000–$4,100 range (approximately Rs. 1,50,000–Rs. 1,51,500) as the next downside target.
- Silver is similarly oversold, testing key support in the $66–$67 range (approximately Rs. 2,40,000–Rs. 2,42,000). As with gold, a 3–4% technical recovery is the base case on dip-buying, but a confirmed sustainability below this support would accelerate selling pressure toward $60 (approximately Rs. 2,20,000) in the short term.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4300/oz : $4500/oz : Rs 154,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $66/oz : $75/oz : Rs 240,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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