National News
India’s Gem & Jewellery Exports Drop 11.72% in FY25 Amid Global Pressures
Studded gold and platinum jewellery buck trend with positive growth; CPD and silver exports see sharp declines
India’s gem and jewellery (G&J) exports declined by 11.72% in the financial year 2024-25, totaling USD 28.5 billion, compared to USD 32.28 billion in FY24. The industry grappled with multiple global challenges including sluggish demand in key markets like the US and China, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and rising competition from lab-grown diamonds.
Despite the overall decline, exports of studded gold jewellery rose by 14% year-on-year to USD 6.1 billion, and platinum jewellery exports also saw an uptick of 11.79% to USD 182.75 million. In contrast, exports of cut and polished diamonds (CPD), the sector’s largest component, plummeted 16.75% to USD 13.2 billion, while silver jewellery exports dropped a staggering 40.58% to USD 962 million.
The imposition of a 26% US tariff on certain goods triggered a last-minute surge in exports, with over USD 1 billion worth of shipments sent in the 10 days prior to the tariff’s implementation — a sign of underlying global demand potential.
On the import front, gross G&J imports fell 11.96% to USD 19.6 billion, down from USD 22.2 billion in the previous fiscal year. Imports of rough diamonds, a key raw material, dropped 24.27% in value to USD 10.8 billion, while the volume declined 16.2% to 1,044.34 lakh carats.
Exports of lab-grown polished diamonds were also impacted, declining by 9.64% to USD 1.2 billion.
Gold jewellery exports were relatively stable, recording only a marginal decline of 0.11% to USD 11.21 billion. Of this, plain gold jewellery contributed USD 5.1 billion.
Signs of recovery were visible from January 2025 onwards, with month-on-month growth, although still trailing behind year-on-year figures. Exports in March 2025 were USD 2.5 billion, showing a modest 1.02% growth over February, but slightly below the USD 2.55 billion recorded in March 2024.
Industry players remain cautiously optimistic, citing stabilizing diamond prices and improving market sentiment as early indicators of a turnaround, despite ongoing global uncertainty.
National News
MCX Gold and Silver Experiencing Downward Pressure Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds
MCX Gold and Silver Face Tactical Bearish Pressures from Macro-Geopolitical Synergies, Yet Structural Uptrends Offer Opportunistic Entry Points Above Core Supports
MCX Gold and Silver markets are experiencing downward pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic headwinds. This report provides a strategic analysis of current dynamics, leveraging real-time data for informed stakeholder decision-making.
Executive Summary
The MCX Gold futures have dipped below the pivotal Rs 1.51 lakh threshold per 10 grams, reflecting a 0.31% decline to Rs 1,49,950 in early trading on April 24, 2026, while Silver hovers around Rs 2.40 lakh per kg with a 0.56% drop to Rs 2,40,168. These movements stem from heightened US-Iran hostilities at the Strait of Hormuz, bolstering crude oil prices and inflationary expectations, which in turn elevate the opportunity cost of non-yielding bullion assets.
Market Performance Overview
- Gold Pricing Dynamics: MCX Gold May futures opened lower at Rs 1,49,950, recovering marginally from sub-Rs 1.51 lakh lows after prior session gains to Rs 1,50,750; spot international gold trades below $4,700/oz.
- Silver Pricing Trajectory: MCX Silver May futures at Rs 2,40,168, down from Rs 2,42,213, with intraday lows near Rs 2,39,200 amid a slower selloff pace versus recent sharp declines.
- Volatility Metrics: Weekly declines accelerated by US Dollar strength (up ~1%) and 10-year Treasury yield surge (>2%), compressing bullion appeal in a high-rate paradigm.
Key Risk Drivers
Elevated energy costs from US-Iran escalations, including naval blockades and mine-laying incidents at the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified inflationary risks and fueled speculation of prolonged elevated interest rates by central banks. President Trump’s directives for US Navy interventions and indefinite ceasefire extensions underscore persistent geopolitical volatility, indirectly pressuring bullion as a safe-haven amid dollar dominance.
Strategic Outlook and Recommendations
Bullish momentum persists in medium-term technicals, with Gold targeting Rs 1.63 lakh and Silver Rs 2.80 lakh if supports hold, though near-term headwinds from yield curves and crude spikes warrant hedging strategies. Stakeholders should prioritize portfolio rebalancing toward diversified yield-bearing alternatives while monitoring Hormuz developments for pivot reversals.
MCX Gold and Silver face tactical bearish pressures from macro-geopolitical synergies, yet structural uptrends offer opportunistic entry points above core supports—positioning for volatility-normalized alpha generation.
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