Tanvi shah -Director & Head – CareEdge Advisory & Research

The gems and jewellery market has clocked a healthy CAGR of 11% from CY20-24, to reach at Rs. 8,110 billion in CY24.  A similar growth trajectory is expected to continue in the next 5 years. Furthermore, bangles and chains hold a large share in the overall jewellery market. As consumer preferences evolve, the Indian jewellery sector is undergoing notable transformation. Central to this shift is the Mangalsutra—a piece that embodies both cultural heritage and modern sensibility. Traditionally revered as a symbol of marital unity and prosperity, the Mangalsutra has maintained its cultural significance while aligning with contemporary aesthetics and changing lifestyles.

The Mangalsutra market has grown at over 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years and estimated to be Rs 190 billion in CY24(E).  With the consistently rising number of weddings in India, the market is set to expand steadily and is expected to surpass Rs 250 billion by CY29.

Weddings: The Prime Driver of Demand

Weddings remain the key driver of Mangalsutra purchases, with the ornament continuing to symbolize matrimony across communities. As weddings evolve—especially with greater financial independence among millennial couples—buying behaviours are also shifting. While 80–82% of wedding expenses are still covered through savings, around 10% rely on loans and 6–8% liquidate assets.

In 2024, India recorded 124.3 lakh weddings, marking a strong post-pandemic momentum. This upward trend continued from earlier years and is expected to accelerate, with weddings projected to reach 180.8 lakh by 2032, registering a CAGR of 4.8%. This growth is also fuelling demand for bridal jewellery, underscoring the wedding sector’s resilience and its rising contribution to the national economy.

Chart 1: Total Number of Weddings in India, CY2024-32

The rise of destination weddings and thematic ceremonies has prompted demand for multiple Mangalsutra designs. Brides now seek elaborate gold pieces for traditional rituals and minimalist styles for more modern or informal functions. This shift has encouraged jewellers to diversify their offerings, enabling repeat purchases beyond the initial wedding.

Evolving Designs: A Fusion of Style and Sentiment

Although traditional Mangalsutras—characterised by black beads and gold links—continue to dominate, capturing a 62% share of the market in CY24, the preference for modern alternatives is rising. Designs featuring sleek lines, diamonds, and mixed metals now comprise 32% of the market and resonate particularly with younger, urban consumers who prioritise versatility and style.

Chart 2: Indian Mangalsutra Market: Break-up by Design (% share) for CY24(E)

                                                                

Customisation has emerged as a notable trend. Consumers increasingly request bespoke elements, including unique pendant shapes, gemstone settings, and tailored chain lengths. Presently, customised Mangalsutras account for approximately 5% of the market. Jewellers are responding by embracing advanced design technologies and personalised consultations, enabling them to cater to diverse tastes and preferences.

Material preferences reflect shifting choices considering prices 

Gold remains the market leader in Mangalsutra, and 22K gold accounts for 52% of the share because of its long-standing tradition of symbolizing security and affluence. Nevertheless, an price increase—from around Rs 67,175 per 10 grams during April 2024 to Rs 90,050 as of 24^th April 2025—has forced consumers to question their decisions, tending towards lighter or affordable options.

Chart 3: Indian Mangalsutra market breakup by material type (% share) for CY24(E)

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Note: Others include Beads, Synthetic Metals, Semi-Precious stones,  etc.

Silver Mangalsutras, now commanding a 31% share, offer an affordable and wearable alternative. Their simplicity appeals to younger consumers who seek practical, everyday options. Meanwhile, diamond Mangalsutras hold a 12% market share, gaining popularity among those who value elegance and symbolic distinction. Fusion designs, incorporating gold, silver, and diamonds, are also gaining ground as jewellers strive to serve a broader demographic.

Market Outlook: Strong sentiment supporting healthy sales growth

Gold Mangalsutras continue to represent nearly 52.3% of the total market, but interest in alternative silver or diamond variants is also attracting more consumers. Going forward, these changing consumer preferences will encourage many new replacement and repeat purchases, creating fresh opportunities for jewellers.

In contrast to the overall demand for gold jewellery, which declined by 2.3 percent year-on-year in CY24, the Mangalsutra market demonstrated remarkable resilience by maintaining double-digit growth. As weddings continued and consumer preferences evolved, the Mangalsutra adapted accordingly embracing new and exciting designs without compromising its cultural significance.

A commitment symbol and a personal style will keep it constantly relevant in India’s jewellery landscape, full of diversity and dynamism.

U.S. gold prices have experienced a notable decline, falling from a recent high of $3,509 to $3,310. This $199 drop can be attributed to a combination of geopolitical and economic developments that have reduced market demand for safe-haven assets.

Key Factors Driving the Decline

1. Stability in U.S. Monetary Policy
   Investor concerns over potential instability in U.S. monetary policy were mitigated following former President Donald Trump’s remarks reaffirming his support for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. By ruling out any intention to replace Powell, Trump contributed to a sense of continuity and stability in monetary leadership, reducing speculative demand for gold.
2. Positive Signals in U.S.-China Trade Relations
   Sentiment was further boosted by optimistic statements from Trump regarding ongoing trade negotiations with China. His characterization of the discussions as “progressing positively” and his expressed confidence in achieving a mutually beneficial agreement have lowered immediate fears of trade disruptions, easing the flight to gold.
3. Geopolitical Easing in Eastern Europe
   Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to initiate talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has raised hopes for a ceasefire agreement. This development has encouraged a shift in investor sentiment toward riskier assets, further weakening gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

Contrasting Forecast: Bullish Outlook from JP Morgan
Despite the current decline, JP Morgan has issued a bullish long-term outlook, projecting that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026. The forecast is driven by concerns over a potential U.S. recession and the impact of renewed trade tensions stemming from Trump-era tariffs.
The recent decline in gold prices underscores the complexity and volatility of today’s economic landscape. While current developments have encouraged a risk-on sentiment, longer-term forecasts suggest persistent uncertainty could reignite demand for gold. In a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, forecasting commodity movements remains inherently challenging.

This report analyzes the market dynamics surrounding Akshaya Tritiya 2025, focusing on the impact of rising gold prices on consumer behavior and sales trends. Despite high gold rates, the festival remains a significant driver for jewelry sales due to its cultural importance and the perception of gold as a secure investment. Jewelers anticipate resilient sales, driven by innovative designs, discounts, and a shift towards lighter jewelry and alternative precious metals like diamonds and platinum.

Key Findings

• Resilient Consumer Sentiment: Akshaya Tritiya continues to be viewed as an auspicious occasion for purchasing gold, overriding concerns about high prices.
• Shifting Purchase Patterns: Consumers are becoming more discerning, emphasizing quality, design, and value. Trends include:

• Increased interest in lightweight jewelry and gold coins for investment.
• A potential shift towards diamonds and platinum due to stable prices.
• Demand for heritage-inspired designs that blend tradition with modern aesthetics.

• Strategic Adaptations by Jewelers: Jewelers are employing various strategies to attract customers:

• Offering discounts on making charges and curated Akshaya Tritiya collections.
• Focusing on budget-friendly and lightweight designs.
• Highlighting the long-term investment potential of gold.

• Regional Variations: Markets like Tamil Nadu and Kerala exhibit strong cultural traditions driving gold purchases, while others may see more pronounced shifts to alternative investments.

Market Outlook

• Sales Value vs. Volume: While gold sales volume may experience a marginal dip due to high prices, the overall sales value is expected to remain robust.
• Alternative Investments: Diamonds and platinum are gaining traction as viable alternatives, particularly with stabilized prices and innovative product offerings like diamond coins.
• Consumer Behavior: Consumers with planned future occasions (e.g., weddings) are proactively booking gold to mitigate price fluctuations.

Recommendations

• Diversify Product Offerings: Jewelers should cater to a range of budgets by offering lightweight jewelry, gold coins, and designs in alternative precious metals.
• Emphasize Value and Craftsmanship: Highlight the quality, purity, and design excellence of jewelry to justify purchases despite high gold rates.
• Leverage Digital Marketing: Utilize targeted campaigns to connect with consumers emotionally and underscore the long-term financial benefits of investing in gold.
• Offer Flexible Purchasing Options: Consider offering pre-booking options and installment plans to accommodate budget constraints and encourage purchases.
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Akshaya Tritiya 2025 presents a unique opportunity for jewelers to leverage cultural sentiments and strategic marketing to drive sales, even amid high gold prices. By adapting to evolving consumer preferences and offering a diverse range of products and purchasing options, jewelers can reinforce customer trust and achieve a successful festive season.