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Gold Prices May Touch ₹1 Lakh in H2 2025 Amid Strong Investment Demand: ICICI Report

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Gold prices in India are expected to trend higher in the second half of 2025, potentially reaching the ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams mark, according to a report by ICICI Bank Global Markets. Prices are currently trading in the range of ₹96,500 to ₹98,500 per 10 grams, but are forecasted to edge upward due to sustained investment demand and a mild depreciation in the Indian Rupee.

“Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias, moving from a near-term range of ₹96,500–₹98,500 to the ₹98,500–₹100,000 range in H2 2025,” the report stated.

In June, domestic gold prices rose by 0.6% despite a global slowdown in momentum, supported by a 0.2% decline in the rupee. However, jewellery demand showed signs of weakening, with gold imports declining from USD 3.1 billion in April to USD 2.5 billion in May.

Investment demand, in contrast, remains strong. AMFI data showed net inflows of ₹2.92 billion into gold ETFs in May, following two months of outflows. Globally, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from 930 tonnes on June 1 to 948 tonnes by July 1, and speculative net long positions rose by 13,000 lots.

Despite gold’s YTD gains of 28%, prices have remained flat in recent weeks due to improving global risk sentiment. Key geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and progress on U.S. trade agreements with the UK, Vietnam, Japan, India, and the EU, have eased safe-haven demand.

“The upshot is that easing geopolitical tensions and expectations that trade-war 2.0 could ease in magnitude have worked to limit further sharp upside emerging in gold prices,” the report noted.

While jewellery demand remains soft, strong investment-related buying continues to underpin the yellow metal’s upward momentum.

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JB Insights

The Role Of Hallmarking and Transparency In Strengthening Consumer Confidence

By Suresh Krishnan, Vice President – Sales, PNG Jewellers

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In India, jewellery is equally an emotional purchase and a significant financial transaction. As consumers become more informed and digitally empowered, trust is increasingly becoming a decisive factor alongside design, price and brand reputation. Hallmarking has played an important role in creating that trust by giving consumers third-party assurance of precious-metal purity.

India’s hallmarking ecosystem has expanded significantly. BIS data shows that hallmarking registrations increased from 34,647 to 1,37,315 between April 2021 and March 2022 *1, while more than 8.72 crore gold and silver articles were hallmarked during that year. The introduction of the six-digit Hallmark Unique Identification (HUID) in 2021 has further strengthened traceability. Consumers can verify a gold article’s HUID through the BIS CARE app, adding an independent layer of assurance at the point of purchase.

For an organised retailer, this becomes particularly relevant as jewellery discovery increasingly moves online. A customer may discover a product on social media, compare it on an e-commerce platform and complete the transaction digitally. In such a journey, hallmarking helps bridge the trust gap created by the absence of physical touch and feel. When purity is independently verifiable, consumers can make online purchases with greater confidence.

The opportunity is also expanding beyond gold. BIS has brought both gold and silver under its hallmarking framework. In FY2024-25, more than 32 lakh silver jewellery articles*2 were hallmarked. The revised IS 2112:2025 introduced HUID-based hallmarking for silver on a voluntary basis from September 2025, creating greater traceability and consumer assurance in a category that is increasingly relevant to younger and value-conscious buyers.

This evolution matters commercially. KPMG’s India CX Report 2025*3 found that 27% of fine-jewellery customers are more confident in authenticity, quality and value when they trust a brand, while 9% said they would explore another brand if jewellery appeared overpriced for its quality. These findings underline why trust is not simply a compliance issue; it directly influences consideration and willingness to pay.

Contributing to the larger goal of organised and transparent trade, hallmarking has now been integrated as part of the broader customer experience across stores, CRM and e-commerce. As India’s jewellery market becomes increasingly omnichannel, the brands that communicate purity, pricing and policies clearly will be better positioned to convert digital discovery into purchase and, more importantly, build relationships that extend beyond a single transaction. The future of jewellery retail will therefore be defined not only by what consumers see, but by how confidently they can verify what they are buying and hallmarking takes care of that concern efficiently.

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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