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Gold rally continues;US PCE Price Index data keenly awaited

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Gold price extends its record-setting rally toward $3,100 after settling above $3,050 on Thursday. Sitting at record highs, Gold price keenly awaits the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data and US President Donald Trump’s tariff updates for additional trading impetus.

The recent announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, effective April 3, along with duties on auto parts beginning May 3, has reignited trade war fears. Reciprocal tariffs from key trading partners are expected to follow, creating an environment of uncertainty that further boosts gold’s appeal. Historically, protectionist policies have contributed to financial market instability, leading investors to shift capital into more stable assets such as gold.

Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are nearing the $3,080 resistance level, a crucial threshold for market sentiment. A breakthrough above this level could pave the way for prices to reach $3,100 and beyond. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 72.50, indicating overbought conditions that may lead to a short-term correction. Key support levels to watch include $3,050 and $3,012, with $3,000 serving as a significant psychological barrier.

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WGC REPORT–Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026

Year-To-Date Demand Of 3,881t Virtually Matches The 2025 Record, While Its Value Has Reached A New High Of US$566bn

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Total gold demand, including OTC investment and stock changes, was 1% lower y/y at 1,369t. Year-to-date demand of 3,881t virtually matches the 2025 record, while its value has reached a new high of US$566bn.

Key Highlights

Central bank buying jumped to 321t in Q3, led by China and Poland. The strong quarter lifted year-to-date demand to 675t, 6% ahead of the same period in 2025.  

Global gold ETFs added 211t in Q3, in a sharp reversal from Q2 outflows. Broad-based buying took holdings to a record 4,256t and generated a record US$31bn of quarterly inflows.  

Bar and coin investment fell to a four-year low of 268t. Rangebound prices discouraged fresh buying, although year-to-date demand remained at a 13-year high.  

Gold jewellery consumption fell 17% y/y to 313t, the weakest third quarter in our data series. High prices constrained affordability across all markets, but the value of demand edged 2% higher to US$43bn.  

Total gold supply slipped 1% y/y to 1,369t. Record third-quarter mine production of 1,071t was offset by an 8% fall in recycling to a three-year low of 314t.  

2026 Outlook
We expect continued gold ETF inflows and resilient bar and coin buying, together with robust central bank purchases, to be the principal drivers of overall demand growth. Technology demand should remain firm, but elevated prices will continue to weigh on jewellery volumes. Mine production could reach another record high, but subdued recycling is expected to result in a modest decline in total supply.

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