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Gold plunges by 20% and Silver by 45%. What next?- AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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The precious metals market has seen extreme volatility. Gold has plunged nearly 20%, and silver has declined about 45% within just three days, wiping out most of the year-to-date gains. Such a sharp correction is rare and reflects the risks of crowded trades in fast-moving markets.

Over the past year, gold and silver surged to record highs, surprising even experienced market participants. The rally intensified in January as investors sought protection amid geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over currency debasement, and questions around the Federal Reserve’s independence. Strong speculative buying, particularly from China, further amplified the move.

Key factors behind the sharp correction:

  1. Overcrowded and overbought conditions

Market positioning had become stretched, with record speculative long positions, strong ETF inflows, increased retail participation, and overextended technical indicators. Silver was especially vulnerable due to thinner liquidity and higher leverage. Once prices turned, stop-loss selling and forced liquidation accelerated the decline, with no clear price floor initially visible.

  • Nomination of a new Fed Chair

President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell. While rate cuts remain possible, Warsh is viewed as less dovish than markets had anticipated. His emphasis on inflation control and scepticism toward aggressive quantitative easing supported the US dollar, which weighed on gold prices.

  • Disconnect between paper and physical markets.

A significant divergence has emerged between paper prices and physical availability, especially in silver. Several global mints-imposed sales limits or suspensions, the US Mint halted silver product sales, and delivery delays were reported across key markets, including India. Rising lease rates further point to tight physical supply, even as paper prices corrected sharply.

  • Margin pressure at exchanges

Major exchanges, led by CME, raised margin requirements on gold and silver futures in response to heightened volatility. Higher margins increased the cost of holding leveraged positions, forcing liquidations. Historically, such margin hikes tend to reset market positioning rather than end long-term bull trends.

Overall, the recent sell-off reflects structural liquidity stress rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals. While paper-market prices declined sharply due to forced selling, elevated physical premiums signal ongoing tight supply and highlight the growing divide between financial trading and physical metal ownership.

Looking ahead, market focus will remain on geopolitical developments between the US and Iran, along with key US economic indicators, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls.

Historically, periods of strong momentum are often accompanied by sharp but temporary volatility. While recent price action has disrupted short-term technical charts, the long-term trend remains constructive. This suggests the current correction is likely a typical “shake-out” within an ongoing long-term bull market for precious metals.

Gold prices are expected to fall by 3-4% and take support around $4320–4300 (~ Rs 133,000-135,000) zone and stabilise at those levels. These dips should be used as a buying opportunity to accumulate atleast 50% of the investment amount for the long-term. On the upside, any rebound is likely to face immediate resistance near the $4,750–4,800 zone.
The precious metals market has seen extreme volatility. Gold has plunged nearly 20%, and silver has declined about 45% within just three days, wiping out most of the year-to-date gains. Such a sharp correction is rare and reflects the risks of crowded trades in fast-moving markets.

Over the past year, gold and silver surged to record highs, surprising even experienced market participants. The rally intensified in January as investors sought protection amid geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over currency debasement, and questions around the Federal Reserve’s independence. Strong speculative buying, particularly from China, further amplified the move.

Source: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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The Luanda Accord expands as Namibia joins, GJEPC and DMCC move  toward Natural Diamond Council membership  

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The Republic of Namibia is the latest government to sign the Luanda Accord while  India’s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) and DMCC (Dubai Multi  Commodities Centre) are set to become new members of the Natural Diamond Council.  

The Luanda Accord held its second high-level meeting at the African Mining  Indaba 2026, marking an expansion of collective action in support of global generic marketing for natural  diamonds, led by the Natural Diamond Council (NDC). 

The Accord brings together diamond-producing governments and industry stakeholders committed to  sustained investment in protecting and promoting the natural diamond category. Its inaugural meeting  took place in June 2025, with participation from producing countries and leaders across the global natural  diamond value chain.  

At today’s meeting, the Government of the Republic of Namibia formally became a signatory to the Luanda  Accord, joining Angola, Botswana and the Democratic Republic of Congo. By signing, Namibia commits to  supporting the natural diamond industry through an agreed contribution to global category marketing in  alignment with the principles of the Luanda Accord. The announcement follows Namibia’s expression of  strong support in principle at the first Luanda Accord meeting and the subsequent completion of all  required governmental authorizations. 

With a diamond industry dating back to 1908, Namibia is today the fifth largest diamond producer in the  world by value and home to a significant diamond cutting and polishing industry. For decades, diamonds  have been a cornerstone of Namibia’s economy, generating employment, supporting local communities  and providing vital government revenue that has funded infrastructure, healthcare, and education for the  people of Namibia.  

Honourable Modestus Amutse, Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy of the Republic of Namibia, said: “Natural diamonds have helped shape Namibia’s economic story for more than a century, creating jobs,  supporting communities and contributing directly to national development.

By joining the Luanda Accord,  Namibia is affirming that producing countries have both a stake and a responsibility in telling the true story  of natural diamonds. This is about ensuring that the value created by our resources continues to benefit  our people, today and for generations to come.”

Amber Pepper, CEO of the NDC, said: “Namibia’s decision to formally join the Luanda Accord is a powerful  signal of leadership from one of the world’s largest diamond-producing nations. Collective action is  essential to protect the integrity and desirability of natural diamonds, and Namibia’s commitment  strengthens our ability to tell the compelling story of their positive impact.” 

At the same meeting, the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) and the NDC signed a  Memorandum of Understanding that sets out a pathway for GJEPC to become an NDC member by 1 May  2026. Membership is subject to agreement on the level and structure of financial contribution, followed  by completion of legal and regulatory requirements. Accession by May 2026 will enable GJEPC and the  NDC to work together ahead of the 2026 holiday season. This step builds on GJEPC’s signature of the  Luanda Accord in June 2025 and reflects its continued commitment to collective action in support of the  natural diamond sector. 

On signing the MOU, Shaunak Parikh, Vice Chairman of GJEPC said: “India sits at the heart of the global  natural diamond value chain, from cutting and polishing to a fast-growing domestic consumer market.  Joining forces with the Natural Diamond Council reflects our belief that the future of natural diamonds  depends on collaboration, transparency and a shared commitment to building long-term consumer  confidence.”  

Amber Pepper added: “GJEPC have long been a valued partner of the Natural Diamond Council. Their  move toward membership deepens that partnership and strengthens our ability to reach the next  generation of consumers with clear, compelling information about what makes natural diamonds rare,  authentic and meaningful.” 

Additionally, the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) signed a Letter of Intent reflecting their  continued commitment to advancing the objectives of the Luanda Accord, including through becoming a  member of the NDC by 1 May 2026.  

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC commented: “As the world’s largest diamond trading hub, DMCC is home to a leading community of companies  operating across the global diamond trade. Our move toward membership of the Natural Diamond Council  reflects our commitment to supporting this community, while also contributing to the continued growth  and long-term stability of the natural diamond industry. 

ahmed bin sulayem

Strengthening the way natural diamonds are presented to consumers is key to building awareness and  sustaining demand. We also recognise the important role African producing nations play in the industry  and will continue to work with partners to help ensure the value generated supports economic progress  in the countries and communities from which these resources originate. 

By connecting production with international markets through Dubai, DMCC will continue to support a  transparent, competitive and future focused diamond sector.” 

Amber Pepper noted: “I welcome the opportunity to work with DMCC to ensure that the industry’s efforts  to support the natural diamond sector are aligned and amplified around the world.”

Together, these developments represent a significant step forward for the Luanda Accord and for the NDC as it advances its mission to protect and promote the integrity, desirability, and enduring value of natural  diamonds worldwide

The Luanda Accord signatories and the NDC continue to call on all participants across the diamond value  chain – from miners and traders to manufacturers and retailers – to support this initiative. A shared vision,  matched by sustained investment in consumer demand, is essential to the future of the natural diamond  industry. 

source: NDC

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