International News
Gold, ‘Non-traditional reserve currencies’ eat into U.S. dollar’s reserve dominance: Wolf Richter
Gold and other reserve currencies – but not the euro or renminbi – are steadily eroding the U.S. dollar’s position as the world’s preeminent reserve asset, according to Wolf Richter, analyst and publisher of Wolf Street.
“The status of the US dollar as the dominant global reserve currency has helped the US fund its twin deficits, and thereby has enabled them: the huge fiscal deficit every year and the massive trade deficit every year,” Richter wrote in an article published Monday. “The reserve currency status comes from other central banks (not the Fed) having purchased trillions of USD-denominated assets such as Treasury securities, other government securities, corporate bonds, and even stocks. The dollar status as the dominant reserve currency has been crucial for the US, and as that dominance declines ever so slowly, risks pile up ever so slowly.”
Total holdings of USD-denominated securities by other central banks (not the Fed) fell by $59 billion to $6.63 trillion at the end of 2024, from $6.69 trillion at the end of 2023,” he noted. “And the dollar’s share declined to 57.8% of total allocated exchange reserves at the end of 2024, the lowest since 1994, down by 7.3 percentage points in 10 years, as central banks have been diversifying their holdings for years to assets denominated in currencies other than the dollar, and into gold.”
International News
WGC Gold Market Commentary-Go With The Flow
September Was Unusual: Despite The Price Decline,Global Gold ETFs Recorded US $10bn (67t) Of Inflows Across Regions. North America Led The Charge, Followed By Europe and Asia.
September review
A surge in US Treasury yields and the US dollar alongside a drop in futures positions helped drive prices lower in September, despite
Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia.
Key Takeaways & Market Drivers
1. September Price Retreat
- Price Movement: Gold dropped 8.5% m/m in September to close at $4,176/oz (USD), experiencing broad declines across all major international currencies.
- Primary Drivers: Macro headwinds drove prices lower, specifically a 53 bps surge in US 10-year Treasury yields (to 5.3%) and a 2% gain in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as captured by the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM).
- Derivatives Liquidation: COMEX net managed money positions shrank by $12bn (84t), while spreading positions fell by $22bn (156t), putting heavy downward pressure on spot prices.
2. Divergence: Physical ETFs vs. Derivatives
- Unusual Contrast: While futures/derivatives positions liquidated sharply, physical demand held firm—global gold ETFs saw strong net inflows of $10bn (67t) in September, led by North America, Europe, and Asia.
3. Stellar European & UK Demand in Q3
- Record Demand: UK-listed gold ETFs recorded 54 tonnes of inflows in Q3 (inflows in 12 of 13 weeks), far exceeding model predictions of 18t (a 36t excess).
- Macro Shift: Historical relationships fail to explain the surge. However, since July, excess UK ETF inflows have strongly correlated (r = 0.51) with rising UK term premia.
- Fiscal Concerns: Investors appear increasingly focused on long-term fiscal sustainability (highlighted by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility’s warnings) and persistent inflation risks rather than transient policy events.
Outlook: What to Watch in October
- Fed & Central Bank Meetings: Markets have lowered expectations for further monetary tightening across the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England.
- Key Signal: If bond yields and term premia remain elevated despite dovish rate expectations, it will signal deeper structural concerns regarding fiscal deficits, which should continue supporting strategic gold demand.
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