U.S. gold prices have experienced a notable decline, falling from a recent high of $3,509 to $3,310. This $199 drop can be attributed to a combination of geopolitical and economic developments that have reduced market demand for safe-haven assets.

Key Factors Driving the Decline

1. Stability in U.S. Monetary Policy
   Investor concerns over potential instability in U.S. monetary policy were mitigated following former President Donald Trump’s remarks reaffirming his support for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. By ruling out any intention to replace Powell, Trump contributed to a sense of continuity and stability in monetary leadership, reducing speculative demand for gold.
2. Positive Signals in U.S.-China Trade Relations
   Sentiment was further boosted by optimistic statements from Trump regarding ongoing trade negotiations with China. His characterization of the discussions as “progressing positively” and his expressed confidence in achieving a mutually beneficial agreement have lowered immediate fears of trade disruptions, easing the flight to gold.
3. Geopolitical Easing in Eastern Europe
   Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to initiate talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has raised hopes for a ceasefire agreement. This development has encouraged a shift in investor sentiment toward riskier assets, further weakening gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

Contrasting Forecast: Bullish Outlook from JP Morgan
Despite the current decline, JP Morgan has issued a bullish long-term outlook, projecting that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026. The forecast is driven by concerns over a potential U.S. recession and the impact of renewed trade tensions stemming from Trump-era tariffs.
The recent decline in gold prices underscores the complexity and volatility of today’s economic landscape. While current developments have encouraged a risk-on sentiment, longer-term forecasts suggest persistent uncertainty could reignite demand for gold. In a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, forecasting commodity movements remains inherently challenging.

This report analyzes the market dynamics surrounding Akshaya Tritiya 2025, focusing on the impact of rising gold prices on consumer behavior and sales trends. Despite high gold rates, the festival remains a significant driver for jewelry sales due to its cultural importance and the perception of gold as a secure investment. Jewelers anticipate resilient sales, driven by innovative designs, discounts, and a shift towards lighter jewelry and alternative precious metals like diamonds and platinum.

Key Findings

• Resilient Consumer Sentiment: Akshaya Tritiya continues to be viewed as an auspicious occasion for purchasing gold, overriding concerns about high prices.
• Shifting Purchase Patterns: Consumers are becoming more discerning, emphasizing quality, design, and value. Trends include:

• Increased interest in lightweight jewelry and gold coins for investment.
• A potential shift towards diamonds and platinum due to stable prices.
• Demand for heritage-inspired designs that blend tradition with modern aesthetics.

• Strategic Adaptations by Jewelers: Jewelers are employing various strategies to attract customers:

• Offering discounts on making charges and curated Akshaya Tritiya collections.
• Focusing on budget-friendly and lightweight designs.
• Highlighting the long-term investment potential of gold.

• Regional Variations: Markets like Tamil Nadu and Kerala exhibit strong cultural traditions driving gold purchases, while others may see more pronounced shifts to alternative investments.

Market Outlook

• Sales Value vs. Volume: While gold sales volume may experience a marginal dip due to high prices, the overall sales value is expected to remain robust.
• Alternative Investments: Diamonds and platinum are gaining traction as viable alternatives, particularly with stabilized prices and innovative product offerings like diamond coins.
• Consumer Behavior: Consumers with planned future occasions (e.g., weddings) are proactively booking gold to mitigate price fluctuations.

Recommendations

• Diversify Product Offerings: Jewelers should cater to a range of budgets by offering lightweight jewelry, gold coins, and designs in alternative precious metals.
• Emphasize Value and Craftsmanship: Highlight the quality, purity, and design excellence of jewelry to justify purchases despite high gold rates.
• Leverage Digital Marketing: Utilize targeted campaigns to connect with consumers emotionally and underscore the long-term financial benefits of investing in gold.
• Offer Flexible Purchasing Options: Consider offering pre-booking options and installment plans to accommodate budget constraints and encourage purchases.
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Akshaya Tritiya 2025 presents a unique opportunity for jewelers to leverage cultural sentiments and strategic marketing to drive sales, even amid high gold prices. By adapting to evolving consumer preferences and offering a diverse range of products and purchasing options, jewelers can reinforce customer trust and achieve a successful festive season.

India has solidified its position as a global powerhouse in silver jewellery fabrication in 2024, playing a pivotal role in the metal’s record-breaking industrial and consumer demand, as per the latest World Silver Survey 2025 by the Silver Institute

Global industrial demand for silver reached an all-time high of 680.5 million ounces (Moz), fueled by the expanding green economy and rapid growth in AI-related technologies. India stood out with a 4% rise in industrial silver demand, second only to China, underscoring its growing importance in the global silver landscape.

Jewellery fabrication—India’s traditional stronghold—also saw robust growth. Global silver jewellery demand increased by 3% to 208.7 Moz, with India contributing the majority of that rise. This surge was attributed to a combination of factors, including a cut in silver import duty, a resilient rural economy, and a rising consumer preference for high-purity silver pieces.

In a notable contrast to global trends, India also posted a 21% jump in demand for silver coins and bars, even as worldwide demand declined. This was largely driven by bullish investor sentiment and favorable import policies that encouraged safe-haven buying.

However, the silverware segment saw a 2% decline, falling to a three-year low of 54.2 Moz, primarily due to softened demand in India’s gifting segment, where elevated silver prices dampened consumer enthusiasm.

On the supply side, global silver mine production edged up slightly by less than 1% to 819.7 Moz, yet the market remained in a structural deficit for the fourth consecutive year, with a shortfall of 148.9 Moz.

The report also warns that geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. tariffs could impact silver demand in 2025. However, strong safe-haven investment interest may help cushion any potential declines. Despite global uncertainties, silver prices rose 21% in 2024 and continue to maintain strength heading into the new year.