Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.

• Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
• Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.

Technical Triggers

• If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
• As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.

Support and Resistance