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You asked, we answered: Gold hits $3,000 – What comes next?

Gold Reaches New Heights: What the $3,000 Milestone Means for the Future of the Market

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Key highlights

  • Gold’s new milestone: Gold recently crossed US$3,000/oz intraday – a headline-worthy event, but the true significance for gold lies in the broader economic trends driving its rise
  • Price momentum: Gold surged from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000 in just 210 days, pushing it three standard deviations above its 200-day moving average
  • Market fundamentals: While gold may face some consolidation due to the speed of its latest move, the combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, rising inflation, lower rates and a weaker US dollar continue to provide powerful tailwinds to investment demand.

Gold (briefly) breaks through another psychological level

Gold crossed US$3,000/oz in intra-day trading during the early hours of Friday 14 March and then again on Monday 17 March.1 While the LBMA Gold Price PM hasn’t officially crossed the mark, setting at US$2,996.50/oz on Monday, it has nonetheless grabbed the attention of investors and media outlets around the world, triggering a myriad of questions about its significance.

So, what does this milestone really mean? Depending on who you ask: a lot or not much at all. For us, there are interesting psychological and technical aspects about this triple-zero ending price that could influence gold’s short-term behaviour. But the more meaningful – and lasting – dynamics are the ones behind gold’s performance over the past several months.

What’s meaningful about gold’s move?

Gold reached more than 40 new all-time highs in 2024 and fourteen more so far this year.2 Its upward move has been no coincidence and, in our most recent Gold Market Commentary, we talked about a potential perfect storm forming for gold. The focus isn’t just the number itself but the pace at which gold has reached it. The jump from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000/oz took just 210 days – a notably faster move that underscores the momentum gold has built over the past two years (Chart 1). Compare that to the approximate 1,700 days that gold took, on average, to achieve previous US$500/oz increments, and the move stands out (Table 1).  

In fairness, gold had to double in price to go from US$500/oz to US$1,000/oz, while it only had to rise 20% to go from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000/oz. To provide additional context, gold has increased nearly sixfold since December 2005, when it first reached US$500/oz, equivalent to an annualised return of 9.7%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 spot index has increased at a rate of 8.2% per year.3

To take this relative movement into account, we look instead at how much gold has deviated from its 200-day moving average (200DMA). The recent rally has pushed gold’s price three standard deviations (3σ) above the long-term average spread of its 200DMA (Chart 2). Most recently, we saw this extreme divergence during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when gold crossed US$2,000/oz and again around the time gold reached US$2,500/oz. Following these moves there was a period of consolidation before the upward trend eventually resumed.

What’s next?

As the saying goes, “even strong rallies need to catch their breath.” Gold has remained, on average, above previous multiples of US$500/oz for nine days before pulling back (Table 1). At the same time, however, gold has rebounded above the same level in just a few days four out of five times.

From a technical and positioning standpoint, if gold were to remain above US$3,000/oz over the next couple of weeks, it would likely trigger additional buying from derivatives contracts. For example, we estimate there is roughly US$8bn in net delta-adjusted notional in options contracts from US gold ETFs that expire Friday 21 March,4 and US$16bn in options on futures that expire on 26 March. While this may create a slingshot effect, it could also trigger short-term-profit taking.

In view of the speed of gold’s latest move, it would not be surprising to see some price consolidation. But despite potential short-term volatility, the most important determinant for gold’s next move is whether fundamentals can provide long-term support to its trend. As we discussed in our recent Gold Demand Trends, while price strength will likely create headwinds for gold jewellery demand, push recycling up and motivate some profit taking, there are many reasons to believe that investment demand will continue to be supported by a combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, rising inflation, lower rates and a weaker US dollar.

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Diamonds Reimagined: The Rise of Lab-Grown Elegance

By Akash Talesara
President : Sky Gold ltd.

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Celebrity Endorsements of LGDs

Celebrity endorsements are pivotal in transforming ethical luxury from an idealistic concept to a mainstream trend. When well-known figures embrace lab-grown diamonds, they redefine luxury by blending style with responsibility. These endorsements break the notion that luxury is only about exclusivity and excess, shifting the narrative to one where ethics and beauty coexist. As consumers increasingly prioritize sustainability, celebrities make it easier for them to align their values with their purchases, normalizing lab-grown diamonds as the future of luxury. This shift is not just a trend—it’s a cultural movement led by those who hold significant influence.

Global jewellery brands leveraging celebrity stardom

Global jewellery brands are tapping into the power of celebrity to position lab-grown diamonds as the next big thing in luxury. Celebrities bring visibility, credibility, and aspirational value to these diamonds, helping brands reframe them as a symbol of modern luxury. Through collaborations and campaigns featuring stars, jewellery brands communicate that lab-grown diamonds are not only ethically sound but also high-end and exclusive. These celebrity endorsements connect luxury with conscious consumption, shifting consumer perceptions and setting a new standard in the luxury market. This strategic use of star power helps lab-grown diamonds carve a niche as the future of sustainable luxury.

Celebrity collaborations driving the popularity of LGDs

Celebrity collaborations are a game-changer in how lab-grown diamonds are perceived. When icons align themselves with these diamonds, they make the concept of sustainable luxury not just appealing but aspirational. Through their influence, celebrities turn lab-grown diamonds into a desirable, high-status item, making them relatable for the general public. By wearing and endorsing these sustainable gems, they make them accessible to a broader range of consumers. These partnerships not only elevate the diamonds’ appeal but also serve as a bridge between high-end luxury and everyday luxury, making it more attainable for a global audience.

Millennials and Gen Z driving the shift toward LGDs

The jewellery market is shifting gears, embracing sustainability, ethical practices, and personalized designs like never before. Millennials and Gen Z are leading the charge in the lab-grown diamond movement. These diamonds are made with minimal environmental impact, offering a more eco-friendly and responsible choice. It’s not just about the sparkle, it’s about supporting brands that stand for authenticity and integrity. This change is reshaping the jewellery industry, blending craftsmanship with conscience and redefining luxury as a perfect balance of elegance and ethics. 

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Diamonds: Natural, grown, and their needs for differentiation in the global jewellery market

By Ramit Kapoor

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The debate between lab grown diamonds and naturals doesn’t seem to die down. Natural diamonds have had an unfettered rule in the global fine jewellery business for centuries until technological advancement allowed lab-grown diamonds, hitherto used in machine tools and cutting, found their way successfully into the fashion and jewellery space purely based on two reasons : perceived identical appearance and a staggeringly low price. Their entry into the market created a space for affordable jewellery, but they are not designed or are equipped to take over the natural diamond market. That’s because they are different and can be scientifically identified as such. 

Far from disrupting the prominence of natural diamonds, LGDs have emerged as a complementary force, addressing distinct consumer needs while broadening the appeal of diamond jewelry. But, let’s understand the purpose and appeal of each category. 

Natural diamonds continue to hold an unparalleled allure, deeply rooted in their rarity, geological history, and cultural heritage. They symbolize luxury, timelessness, and emotional significance, often marking milestone moments like engagements, weddings, and the creation of family heirlooms. Spending billions of years to be formed under the earth’s surface, natural diamonds command admiration from customers who associate lasting happiness and joy with the person they are buying it for, be it a self-purchase or a gift. Its journey of formation itself carries that value which, thanks to rising awareness, is of great value to its target audience irrespective of age barriers. Such consumers prioritize provenance, ethical sourcing, and origin determination, which reinforce the enduring appeal and exclusivity of natural diamonds.

On the other hand, lab-grown diamonds have carved out their own niche in the global jewelry market, starting with eco-conscious Millennials and Gen Z consumers in the United States. These synthetic diamonds appeal to buyers seeking sustainable and affordable alternatives. In India, a global hub for jewelry, the demand for LGDs is still at its nascent stage, because consumers are still understanding the product. Hence, there is a slow but steady growth in demand driven by their cost-effectiveness and the growing adoption of Western fashion sensibilities. Offering flexibility in design, LGDs are well-suited for trendy, everyday jewelry that embraces unconventional materials such as silver, tungsten, and titanium. They provide consumers with the freedom to explore unique styles while aligning with contemporary values of affordability and sustainability.

The distinction between natural and lab-grown diamonds is not merely academic—it is vital to maintaining consumer trust. Nomenclature is of paramount importance in this regard, as there are several ways to identify a lab-grown diamond. Since they are created in a controlled environment, their origin is different from those built by nature, and hence, must be positioned accordingly to extend confidence to customers of either segment. Thus, while both have their own value propositions, transparency in branding and communication is essential. Lab-grown diamonds should be presented as a distinct category, emphasizing their origin and purpose, rather than being combined with natural diamonds. 

As the diamond industry evolves, embracing the differences between natural and lab-grown diamonds is key to unlocking their full potential. Each caters to specific consumer preferences—natural diamonds for their legacy and emotional resonance, and lab-grown diamonds for their modern, versatile appeal. Retailers and stakeholders must adopt tailored marketing strategies and far better quality in certification and grading standards to give consumers exactly what they bought their products for. While the entire supply chain needs to be strongly educated to firstly identify the differences and sell the right jewellery, retailers especially need to refine marketing messages to effectively communicate these unique value propositions. This can be done by conducting awareness workshops for end-consumers and often showcasing both varieties to them just for knowledge. All in all, by fostering transparency, differentiation, and synergy within the supply chain, the industry can ensure the sustainable growth of both segments, securing a bright future for diamond jewelry on a global scale.

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How to position your store in the jewellery market 

Strategies for Success: Effectively Positioning Your Jewelry Store in a Competitive Market

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Shivaram A is a much sought after mentor, consultant, trainer and speaker across multiple industry platforms. He founded Retail Gurukul in 2012 as a Consulting & Training company. Shivaram has since helped and continues to help retailers and manufacturers, significantly improve their business performance across various metrics.

Shivaram’s  A Guide to Jewellery Retailing-Consumer facing operations  is  ultimate resource for jewellery store owners striving for success in today’s competitive market. Discover the secrets to making your jewellery retailing store succeed, draw in a steady flow of customers, and cultivate lasting loyalty. This comprehensive guide offers actionable advice and real-world examples to elevate your store’s aesthetics, service quality, and sales performance. This is an extract from A Guide to Jewellery Retailing-Consumer facing operations.

From the small corner-store goldsmith to the high-end boutique  jeweller in their own high-rise building, jewellery retailers come in  all forms and sizes. With the Indian jewellery market teeming with  nearly 300,000 players, every jewellery retailer must position  themselves uniquely to make their presence known in this  competitive scenario. 

As a jewellery retailer, you first have to decide whether you want  to remain as just a “store” or create a “brand”. But what is the  difference? 

A “brand” has some definable qualities by which it can be uniquely  identified. These qualities or features form a perception in the  minds of the customer which is called its brand equity. 

As a jeweller, you can project certain aspects of your jewellery  merchandise or customer service as brand quality. 

Look at how PC Chandra, the renowned Kolkata Jewellers are  trying to position themselves with the help of the famous creative  agency J Walter Thompson (JWT).  Ayan Chakraborty, VP and executive business director, JWT  Kolkata, said, “PC Chandra’s intricate craftsmanship and the brand’s unique image in the minds of Bengalis all over the world is  something we kept in mind while working.” 

Arjun Mukherjee, VP and ECD, JWT Kolkata, added, “The challenge was to create a philosophy for the brand which every modern  woman will relate to. We went beyond the beauty space in jewellery and tried to find an emotion that will resonate with one  and all.” 

You too can position your jewellery outlet as a unique brand by  defining its values and expressing your trade philosophy in the  following ways.

Ways in which you can position your outlet

Jewellery stores fall into certain categories. First, try to identify  which category you belong to, and then add value to it by defining  your strengths. You may be a: 

1. Personal Jeweller

When a customer looks for jewellery “tailor-made to his taste”, he comes to the personal jeweller. The Personal Jeweller highlights  the uniqueness of design, exclusivity and personalization as his  value points. Elite and royal families of illustrious lineage and social  celebrities often prefer to have their own personal jewellers. 

As a Personal Jeweller, you must vouch for your individuality in  design and integrity in trust. If you possess Jewellery design  software and have bagged Jewellery design awards, you really can  boast of being a genuine Personal Jeweller. 

2. Ethnic Jeweller

For people who have a taste for traditional and ethnic designs, the  Ethnic Jeweller is the destination. As an Ethnic Jeweller, you must  have profound knowledge in temple designs and must have the  capacity to reproduce them without even the slightest difference.  Polki, Jadau, Tanjore, Chettinad and Malabar designs feature as  ethnic offerings.

3. Modern Jeweller

For the young and trendy, the Modern Jeweller is the person to call  on. The Modern Jeweller must dabble in fusion and fashion.  Rhodium, Rose gold, Platinum and 18k designs are part of the  modern offerings. 

4. Boutique Jeweller

The boutique Jeweller is the guy who prides himself on his  jewellery range and exemplary service. These artistic showrooms  offer an appealing ambience and a comfortable customer  experience. Boutique Jewellers have several jewellery lines made  by different designers. 

5. Estate Jeweller

If you are looking for antique jewellery or vintage heirlooms, the  Estate Jeweller is the guy to go to. As an Estate Jeweller, you must  have the resourcefulness to seek and procure historic jewellery  with sufficient proof. Estate jewellers are very expensive as they  deal with high-end jewellery collectables. 

 6. Main Street Jeweller

The Main Street Jeweller has the sole objective of capturing the  interest of the urban audience. He caters to them with an eclectic  mix of traditional and modern jewellers with their latest  preferences in mind.

7. Chain Store Jeweller

With branches at multiple locations, the Chain Store Jeweller  prides itself on its wide geographical presence and popularity. His  network of stores may be at diverse locations but portray the same  brand image.

Steps to position your Jewellery store 

1. First, identify yourself with a particular Jeweller category among the ones listed above.

2. Outline your strengths in stock, service, range, design etc. 3. Zero in on your “unique selling points” – is it affordability, service, repair facility, cost savings…

4. Crystallize your brand persona as a brand image with the help of expert consultants like Retail Gurukul who can bring to light the hidden values of your brand.

5. Position your brand with this persona by forming a unique brand image and taglines.

6. Popularize your brand using these brand messages and establish your brand.

Your brand is as precious as your jewellery. Position it with  perfection to reach the pinnacle of success.

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