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You asked, we answered: Gold hits $3,000 – What comes next?

Gold Reaches New Heights: What the $3,000 Milestone Means for the Future of the Market

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Key highlights

  • Gold’s new milestone: Gold recently crossed US$3,000/oz intraday – a headline-worthy event, but the true significance for gold lies in the broader economic trends driving its rise
  • Price momentum: Gold surged from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000 in just 210 days, pushing it three standard deviations above its 200-day moving average
  • Market fundamentals: While gold may face some consolidation due to the speed of its latest move, the combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, rising inflation, lower rates and a weaker US dollar continue to provide powerful tailwinds to investment demand.

Gold (briefly) breaks through another psychological level

Gold crossed US$3,000/oz in intra-day trading during the early hours of Friday 14 March and then again on Monday 17 March.1 While the LBMA Gold Price PM hasn’t officially crossed the mark, setting at US$2,996.50/oz on Monday, it has nonetheless grabbed the attention of investors and media outlets around the world, triggering a myriad of questions about its significance.

So, what does this milestone really mean? Depending on who you ask: a lot or not much at all. For us, there are interesting psychological and technical aspects about this triple-zero ending price that could influence gold’s short-term behaviour. But the more meaningful – and lasting – dynamics are the ones behind gold’s performance over the past several months.

What’s meaningful about gold’s move?

Gold reached more than 40 new all-time highs in 2024 and fourteen more so far this year.2 Its upward move has been no coincidence and, in our most recent Gold Market Commentary, we talked about a potential perfect storm forming for gold. The focus isn’t just the number itself but the pace at which gold has reached it. The jump from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000/oz took just 210 days – a notably faster move that underscores the momentum gold has built over the past two years (Chart 1). Compare that to the approximate 1,700 days that gold took, on average, to achieve previous US$500/oz increments, and the move stands out (Table 1).  

In fairness, gold had to double in price to go from US$500/oz to US$1,000/oz, while it only had to rise 20% to go from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000/oz. To provide additional context, gold has increased nearly sixfold since December 2005, when it first reached US$500/oz, equivalent to an annualised return of 9.7%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 spot index has increased at a rate of 8.2% per year.3

To take this relative movement into account, we look instead at how much gold has deviated from its 200-day moving average (200DMA). The recent rally has pushed gold’s price three standard deviations (3σ) above the long-term average spread of its 200DMA (Chart 2). Most recently, we saw this extreme divergence during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when gold crossed US$2,000/oz and again around the time gold reached US$2,500/oz. Following these moves there was a period of consolidation before the upward trend eventually resumed.

What’s next?

As the saying goes, “even strong rallies need to catch their breath.” Gold has remained, on average, above previous multiples of US$500/oz for nine days before pulling back (Table 1). At the same time, however, gold has rebounded above the same level in just a few days four out of five times.

From a technical and positioning standpoint, if gold were to remain above US$3,000/oz over the next couple of weeks, it would likely trigger additional buying from derivatives contracts. For example, we estimate there is roughly US$8bn in net delta-adjusted notional in options contracts from US gold ETFs that expire Friday 21 March,4 and US$16bn in options on futures that expire on 26 March. While this may create a slingshot effect, it could also trigger short-term-profit taking.

In view of the speed of gold’s latest move, it would not be surprising to see some price consolidation. But despite potential short-term volatility, the most important determinant for gold’s next move is whether fundamentals can provide long-term support to its trend. As we discussed in our recent Gold Demand Trends, while price strength will likely create headwinds for gold jewellery demand, push recycling up and motivate some profit taking, there are many reasons to believe that investment demand will continue to be supported by a combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, rising inflation, lower rates and a weaker US dollar.

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From Prompt To Pendant: How AI Is Turning Jewellery Buyers Into Designers

By Dr  Sandip P. Dhurat 

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Not long ago, jewellery design was largely a one-way conversation. Consumers browsed catalogues, visited stores, or selected pieces from showcases. If they wanted something custom-made, they relied on the jeweller’s sketches, imagination, and expertise.

Today, a new collaborator has entered the room: Artificial Intelligence.

Across age groups, consumers are experimenting with AI-powered image generators and design applications to create jewellery concepts that reflect their personal tastes. A few words typed into a prompt—”an emerald engagement ring inspired by lotus petals” or “a contemporary mangalsutra with geometric motifs”—can generate multiple design possibilities within seconds.

What happens next is perhaps the most interesting part of the story.Instead of ordering these pieces online, many consumers are taking their AI-generated designs to the one person they trust most: their family jeweller.

The new wave of customisation

For decades, customization in jewellery was often limited to engraving names, changing gemstones, or making minor design alterations. AI is expanding that possibility dramatically.

Consumers are no longer arriving at jewellery stores with vague ideas. They are walking in with detailed visual references generated on their smartphones. Some have experimented with dozens of versions before settling on a favourite. Others blend elements from different designs to create something entirely unique.

In a sense, AI is democratizing the design process. It allows consumers to participate creatively, even if they have no formal design background.

For younger buyers especially, this level of involvement is appealing. They want jewellery that feels personal, expressive, and different from what everyone else is wearing. AI gives them a playground where they can explore possibilities before making a purchase.

Role of traditional family jeweller

If AI can generate designs so easily, does that diminish the role of the jeweller?Quite the opposite.

While AI can create attractive images, it cannot determine whether a design is structurally sound, comfortable to wear, practical to manufacture, or durable enough for daily use. A ring that looks spectacular on a screen may be impossible to cast. A delicate bracelet generated by AI may not withstand regular wear.

This is where the expertise of the jeweller becomes invaluable.

Family jewellers are increasingly acting as interpreters between digital imagination and physical reality. They assess AI-generated concepts, refine proportions, suggest technical modifications, and ensure that the final piece balances aesthetics with craftsmanship.

Many jewellers describe the process as similar to working with a client-provided sketch—except the sketch is now more sophisticated and visually detailed.

The trust factor remains unchanged. Consumers may discover designs through AI, but they still want someone they know to guide the process and stand behind the finished product.

New collaboration trend

The relationship between customer and jeweller is evolving from buyer-and-seller to co-creators.

Consider a young couple designing an engagement ring. Instead of selecting from existing collections, they use AI to explore various combinations of settings, gemstones, and motifs. They then sit down with their jeweller to discuss feasibility, budget, stone availability, and craftsmanship.

The final piece is neither entirely AI-designed nor solely jeweller-designed. It is the outcome of a collaborative journey.

This shift creates opportunities for jewellers to engage customers more deeply. Conversations become richer because customers arrive with visual ideas rather than abstract descriptions.

In many cases, the design process becomes part of the emotional value of the jewellery itself.

The opportunity

The trend presents several advantages for jewellers willing to embrace it.

First, AI-generated concepts can serve as conversation starters. Instead of spending significant time understanding a customer’s vision from scratch, jewellers can begin with a visual reference and refine it together.

Second, it can increase demand for bespoke jewellery. Consumers who might never have considered custom design are discovering how accessible it has become.

Third, it opens the door to a new generation of buyers who value individuality over mass-produced designs.

Rather than competing with AI, jewellers can position themselves as the experts who transform digital concepts into heirloom-worthy creations.

Despite all the excitement around AI, jewellery remains an intensely human product.

A necklace gifted on a wedding day, a ring marking an engagement, or a bracelet passed down through generations carries emotions that no algorithm can replicate. AI may help generate ideas, but it cannot understand family traditions, cultural significance, sentimental stories, or the subtle nuances of personal taste.

Consumers are discovering designs through technology, but they are still seeking reassurance, expertise, and craftsmanship from people they trust.

Perhaps that is the real story behind this trend.

AI is not replacing the jeweller. It is empowering consumers to participate in the creative process while making the jeweller’s role even more valuable. The screen may provide the inspiration, but it is the skilled hand of the jeweller that transforms a digital concept into a treasured piece of jewellery.

In the years ahead, the most successful jewellers may not be those who resist AI, but those who embrace it as another tool in the ongoing art of personalization—where technology sparks the idea, and craftsmanship gives it life.

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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