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WGC REPORT Central banks expect official sector gold holdings to increase against a  backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. 

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More than nine in ten (95%) reserve managers indicated that they  expect central banks to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months,  according to new 2025 data released by the World Gold Council today.1 This is a record  high since it was first tracked in the 2019 survey and represents a 17% increase from the  2024 findings. 

The 2025 Central Banks Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey, which collected data from a record  73 of the world’s central banks, also finds that nearly 43% of central banks plan to add to  their own gold reserves within the next year. Reserve managers’ favourable view of gold  persists even in the face of record-high gold prices2 and 15 successive years of central  bank gold buying. 

Gold continues to be used as a safe-haven asset to help mitigate risks as ongoing  economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on reserve managers. The top  three current motivations for holding the asset have shifted to its long-term store of value  (80%), its role as an effective portfolio diversifier (81%), and its performance in times of  crisis (85%). 

Central banks in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) have once again  maintained their positive outlook for gold’s future share in reserve portfolios. Notably, 28  out of 58 (48%) EMDE respondents thought that their own gold reserves would increase in  the next 12 months, compared to 3 out of 14 (21%) of advanced economy respondents,  more than last year. Although interest rate levels remained a key component of both  groups’ motivators for holding gold, inflation (84%) and the geopolitical situation (81%)  were top of mind for EMDEs, while 67% and 60% of advanced economy respondents felt  the same.  

Notably, more central banks are increasingly storing gold domestically: 59% said they  have gold in domestic storage, up from 41% in 2024. Additionally, most respondents (73%) 

see moderately or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the  next five years. However, respondents also believe that other currencies, such as the euro  and renminbi, as well as gold, will increase their share over the same period. 

Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks & Head of Asia-Pacific (ex-China),  commented:  

“After eight years of conducting this survey, we have reached an important milestone:  nearly half of the central bank respondents intend to increase their own gold holdings in  the coming year. This is remarkable, especially considering how many record-high prices  we’ve hit so far in 2025. Notably, this reflects the current global financial and geopolitical  environments. Gold remains a strategic asset as the world faces uncertainty and tumult.  Central banks are concerned about interest rates, inflation, and instability – all reasons to  turn to gold to mitigate risk.” 

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International News

Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes

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Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.

  • Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
  • Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.

Technical Triggers

  • Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
  • Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level 
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $4600/oz
: $5000/oz
: Rs 153,000/10 gm
: Rs 160,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level 
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $75/oz
: $82/oz 
: Rs 235,000/kg
: Rs 260,000/kg  
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