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WGC REPORT Central banks expect official sector gold holdings to increase against a  backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. 

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More than nine in ten (95%) reserve managers indicated that they  expect central banks to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months,  according to new 2025 data released by the World Gold Council today.1 This is a record  high since it was first tracked in the 2019 survey and represents a 17% increase from the  2024 findings. 

The 2025 Central Banks Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey, which collected data from a record  73 of the world’s central banks, also finds that nearly 43% of central banks plan to add to  their own gold reserves within the next year. Reserve managers’ favourable view of gold  persists even in the face of record-high gold prices2 and 15 successive years of central  bank gold buying. 

Gold continues to be used as a safe-haven asset to help mitigate risks as ongoing  economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on reserve managers. The top  three current motivations for holding the asset have shifted to its long-term store of value  (80%), its role as an effective portfolio diversifier (81%), and its performance in times of  crisis (85%). 

Central banks in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) have once again  maintained their positive outlook for gold’s future share in reserve portfolios. Notably, 28  out of 58 (48%) EMDE respondents thought that their own gold reserves would increase in  the next 12 months, compared to 3 out of 14 (21%) of advanced economy respondents,  more than last year. Although interest rate levels remained a key component of both  groups’ motivators for holding gold, inflation (84%) and the geopolitical situation (81%)  were top of mind for EMDEs, while 67% and 60% of advanced economy respondents felt  the same.  

Notably, more central banks are increasingly storing gold domestically: 59% said they  have gold in domestic storage, up from 41% in 2024. Additionally, most respondents (73%) 

see moderately or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the  next five years. However, respondents also believe that other currencies, such as the euro  and renminbi, as well as gold, will increase their share over the same period. 

Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks & Head of Asia-Pacific (ex-China),  commented:  

“After eight years of conducting this survey, we have reached an important milestone:  nearly half of the central bank respondents intend to increase their own gold holdings in  the coming year. This is remarkable, especially considering how many record-high prices  we’ve hit so far in 2025. Notably, this reflects the current global financial and geopolitical  environments. Gold remains a strategic asset as the world faces uncertainty and tumult.  Central banks are concerned about interest rates, inflation, and instability – all reasons to  turn to gold to mitigate risk.” 

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International News

Precious Metals Surge On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Geopolitical Optimism and Macro Shifts Drive Bullish Momentum

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Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.

  • Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
  • Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.

Technical Triggers

  • If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
  • As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $4600/oz
: $5000/oz 
: Rs 153,000/10 gm
: Rs 160,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level 
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $70/oz
: $82/oz  
: Rs 225,000/kg
: Rs 257,000/kg
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