International News
US jewellery, watches sales up by 4.4 per cent year-on-year
Sales of watches and jewelry in the US showed further signs of growth in December 2024, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year, according the latest figures from the US Department of Commerce. But there’s been a marked slowdown since the 10 per cent increases of last September and October.
November saw sales up by just 3.0 per cent, revised down from 5.8 per cent based on actual through-the-till transactions rather than estimates. October has been revised up from 9.7 per cent to 10.0 per cent.
The average monthly year-on-year growth for the full year is 5.4 per cent, so December was little below par. Having said that, it was the 15th consecutive month of growth after a long period (the end of 2022 and much of 2023) of falling sales.
International News
Safe-Haven Rally Amid US–Iran Diplomacy and Pre-NFP Caution AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Continues Its Upside Momentum With Next Target Resistance At $4,800–4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000)
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver have resumed their upward trend, supported by optimism around a potential US–Iran peace deal that is weakening the safe-haven appeal of the USD. Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, investor sentiment leans toward diplomatic resolution. This has pushed Crude Oil prices lower, reducing inflationary pressure and lowering expectations of a more aggressive Fed stance.Â
Geopolitical Developments – Iran has accused the US of breaching the ceasefire through strikes near the Strait. The Trump administration is awaiting Tehran’s formal response to a proposal aimed at reopening Hormuz and resolving the roughly ten-week conflict. Reports suggest Iran will relay its position via Pakistan within two days.
Macro-economic Signals Markets are focused on today’s NFP print, forecast at 62K — a sharp pullback from March’s stronger-than-expected 178K. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is expected to tick up to 3.8% from 3.5%, keeping wage inflation in focus.
Technical Triggers
- Gold continues its upside momentum with next target resistance at $4,800–4,850 (~Rs.1,55,000).Â
- Silver has met the $80 (~Rs. 2,60,000) and $82 (~Rs. 2,65,000) upside target. Prices are expected to consolidate here for a while before moving higher towards $85 (~Rs. 2,70,000)
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4500/oz : $4850/oz : Rs. 148,000/10 gm : Rs. 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $73/oz : $85/oz : Rs. 240,000/kg : Rs. 270,000/kg |
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