International News
US jewellery, watches sales up by 4.4 per cent year-on-year
Sales of watches and jewelry in the US showed further signs of growth in December 2024, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year, according the latest figures from the US Department of Commerce. But there’s been a marked slowdown since the 10 per cent increases of last September and October.
November saw sales up by just 3.0 per cent, revised down from 5.8 per cent based on actual through-the-till transactions rather than estimates. October has been revised up from 9.7 per cent to 10.0 per cent.
The average monthly year-on-year growth for the full year is 5.4 per cent, so December was little below par. Having said that, it was the 15th consecutive month of growth after a long period (the end of 2022 and much of 2023) of falling sales.
International News
Democrats Win In Midterm Polls Could Significantly Lift Industrial Demand For Silver
World Gold Council Data Going Back To 1970 Show Gold Rising 62% Of The Time In The Six Months After A Midterm, With A Median Gain Of Just 2%,
· Midterm Election Snapshot: Americans are voting for 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships. Forecasters expect Democrats to win the House (~90% chance), while the Senate remains a toss-up driven by voter concerns over inflation, tariffs, and the Iran conflict.
· Government Gridlock: A Democratic House would constrain President Trump’s agenda, leading to potential gridlock over spending and taxes.
· Impact on Precious Metals: Election outcomes matter to gold and silver mainly through their impact on Treasury yields and the US dollar. Silver enters the vote under weaker pressure, while gold holds up better.
· Historical Pattern: Since 1970, gold rises 62% of the time in the 6 months following a midterm, with a median gain of 2%—though past patterns are not guaranteed to repeat in 2026.
· National Debt Factor: A full Democratic sweep (“blue sweep”) could focus trader attention on the $40.5 trillion national debt ($120,000 per US citizen), which could eventually boost investment demand for both metals.
· War & Geopolitics: Funding for the 250+ day conflict with Iran would face heavy resistance in a Democratic Congress. An earlier end to the conflict would help gold and silver regain their traditional safe-haven status.
· Industrial Boost for Silver: Democratic policies prioritizing social infrastructure and green energy legislation would significantly lift industrial demand for physical silver, potentially aiding its effort to break back above the historic $50 mark.
· Interest Rate Risks: Higher federal spending could widen deficits and weaken the dollar (bullish for metals), but higher real interest rates and elevated Treasury yields could weigh on gold more than silver.
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