Safe Haven Dynamics – Gold and silver have witnessed a technical rebound from key support levels of $4500 and $65 respectively, following a phase of liquidation by CTAs and institutional players booking profits to raise cash. The recovery was further supported by easing geopolitical concerns, as recent statements from the US and Israel indicated reduced risk of further disruptions to critical Middle Eastern energy infrastructure.

Geopolitical Developments – Market sentiment improved after indications that the US may ease sanctions on Iranian oil, potentially increasing global supply. Additionally, signals from Israel suggesting restraint on further strikes targeting Iranian energy assets have helped stabilise risk perception, thereby reducing immediate safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Monetary Policy Stance – The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rates, reiterating a data-dependent approach with no immediate inclination toward rate cuts until inflation moderates. Simultaneously, the ECB, BOJ, and BOE maintained status quo but conveyed relatively hawkish undertones. Markets have consequently repriced expectations, pushing Fed rate cuts further out while anticipating potential tightening from other central banks, exerting pressure on gold through elevated real yields.

Technical Triggers

• Gold has successfully tested its support near $4600 (~ Rs.144,000) and is likely to consolidate within the $4550–$4800 (~ Rs.143,000 – Rs.150,000) range before establishing a directional trend.

• Silver has similarly held support around $70 with expected consolidation between $70 (~Rs.230,000) and $76.50 (~ Rs.250,000), indicating a base formation before a potential upward move.

Support and Resistance

source:AUGMONT BULLION REPORT