International News
US jewellery, watches sales up by 4.4 per cent year-on-year
Sales of watches and jewelry in the US showed further signs of growth in December 2024, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year, according the latest figures from the US Department of Commerce. But there’s been a marked slowdown since the 10 per cent increases of last September and October.
November saw sales up by just 3.0 per cent, revised down from 5.8 per cent based on actual through-the-till transactions rather than estimates. October has been revised up from 9.7 per cent to 10.0 per cent.
The average monthly year-on-year growth for the full year is 5.4 per cent, so December was little below par. Having said that, it was the 15th consecutive month of growth after a long period (the end of 2022 and much of 2023) of falling sales.
International News
Precious Metals Under Pressure: Diplomatic Shifts, Geopolitical Risk, and Central Bank Outlook AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is trading below $4650 as investors evaluate ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the US–Iran conflict. The crisis has caused a significant energy supply disruption and heightened inflation concerns. Iran has proposed halting its operations in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a complete ceasefire and removal of the US blockade on Iranian ports.
- Geopolitical Developments – Tehran has submitted a new proposal to Washington via Pakistani intermediaries, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz conditional on the US lifting its blockade, while postponing discussions on its nuclear program. Washington remains skeptical and is likely to respond with counter-proposals in the near term. Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain the central point of disagreement between the two sides.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are also focused on upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Fed, ECB, and BOJ this week. Persistent energy price inflation, driven by Middle East tensions, has strengthened expectations that central banks may maintain or further raise interest rates. This monetary tightening outlook is exerting downward pressure on gold prices.Â
Technical Triggers
- Gold has broken the important support of $4650 (~ Rs 151,000), the next target is $4550 (~ Rs 147,500).
- Silver is on the verge of breaking $73 (~ Rs 235,000). If prices sustain below this level, the next target is $70 (~ Rs 225,000).
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4550/oz : $4850/oz : Rs 147,500/10 gm : Rs 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $70/oz : $77/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 245,000/kg |
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