International News
US jewellery, watches sales up by 4.4 per cent year-on-year
Sales of watches and jewelry in the US showed further signs of growth in December 2024, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year, according the latest figures from the US Department of Commerce. But there’s been a marked slowdown since the 10 per cent increases of last September and October.
November saw sales up by just 3.0 per cent, revised down from 5.8 per cent based on actual through-the-till transactions rather than estimates. October has been revised up from 9.7 per cent to 10.0 per cent.
The average monthly year-on-year growth for the full year is 5.4 per cent, so December was little below par. Having said that, it was the 15th consecutive month of growth after a long period (the end of 2022 and much of 2023) of falling sales.
Safe Haven Dynamics – Gold and silver remain under pressure, hovering below key psychological levels of $5000 and $80 respectively, as investors stay cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Volatility in oil prices is complicating the inflation outlook, keeping real yields elevated and limiting upside in precious metals despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical Developments – Escalation in the US–Israel–Iran conflict, including strikes on energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has intensified supply concerns in oil markets. While such tensions typically support safe-haven demand, the inflationary impact of rising energy prices is delaying expectations of monetary easing, creating mixed signals for gold and silver.
Monetary Policy Stance – The Fed is expected to maintain a pause, reinforcing a “wait-and-watch” approach amid sticky inflation and a softening labor market. Similar policy stances by ECB, BoE, and BoJ indicate a synchronized global pause. The key trigger for metals will be forward guidance—any dovish tilt could revive bullish momentum.
Technical Triggers
Gold briefly broke the key $5000 (~Rs.157,000) support and short-term bias remains bearish, with strong support seen around $4850 (~Rs.150,000).
Silver has also slipped below $80 (~Rs.255,000), and a renewed break below $77 (~Rs.247,000) could trigger further profit-booking, dragging prices towards $70 (~₹230,000) in the near term.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $4850/oz | $5250/oz |
| Gold | Domestic | ₹158,500/10 gm | ₹165,000/10 gm |
| Silver | International | $77/oz | $85/oz |
| Silver | Domestic | ₹247,000/kg | ₹268,000/kg |
Source : AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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