Valentine’s Day consumer spending demonstrates sustained growth momentum, with total projected expenditures of $29.1 billion in 2026 compared to $27.5 billion in 2025. This represents the highest spending level recorded since the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics initiated their annual Valentine’s Day consumer survey two decades ago. More than half of US consumers indicated plans to participate in Valentine’s Day celebrations, with the average shopper expected to spend approximately $200 per person, a 6% increase from the prior year and exceeding the previous peak of $196 established in 2020.

• Market Leadership: Jewellery tops revenue despite 25% purchase intent (vs. higher for candy/flowers); average spender plans ~$200/person (up 6% from $196 peak in 2020), with >50% of US consumers celebrating.
• Recipient Shifts: Romantic partners drive $14.5B (down 0.7%); family gifts rise 4.7% to $4.5B; friends (1/3 of buyers), kids’ teachers/classmates (27%), colleagues (21%) stable; pet gifting surges 24% to $2.1B record.
• Demographic Drivers: Middle/upper-income groups expand gifting to broader networks, boosting spend per gift and recipient count amid stable participation.
• Category Breakdown: Candy (56%), flowers/cards (41% each), dining (33%), jewellery (25%)—but jewellery’s premium pricing secures #1 revenue spot.
• Channel Mix: Online leads at 38%, followed by department stores (34%), discount (30%), specialty (21%), favoring omnichannel strategies.
• Strategic Opportunities: Jewellery retailers should target non-romantic lines (e.g., friendship/family pieces), optimize inventory/marketing, enhance e-commerce, and leverage 8% category growth outpacing overall market.