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Silver surges on further Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, China demand

Global supply tightness and rising Fed rate-cut bets propel silver to new record highs, with China led demand and strong futures activity driving market momentum.

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Silver surged to a fresh all-time high amid rising expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Silver rose to $53.9/oz. Chinese silver inventories have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade, prompting substantial exports to London to ease supply tightness. This follows October’s record Chinese silver exports exceeding 660 tonnes.

The price of silver in India today  touched Rs 1,76,000 per kg. On the MCX, March 2026 silver futures gained Rs. 1,478 (0.91%) to Rs. 1,63,945/kg, while December silver futures rose Rs.1,517 (0.91%) to Rs.1,67,504/kg.

Markets now anticipate three additional Fed cuts before end-2026, with the probability of a 25-bps cut in December jumping to 85%, up sharply from about 30% a week earlier. Hedging activity has intensified across swaptions and overnight-rate-linked derivatives as traders navigate mixed Fed signals.

Silver ended the session close to a two-week high as delayed US economic data boosted expectations of a December Fed rate cut. September retail sales grew just 0.2%, signalling softer consumer demand, while PPI figures aligned with expectations. Recent dovish remarks from Fed officials have further pushed market pricing for a 25 bps cut to over 80%.

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Natural Diamonds Cut In Europe Will No Longer Face US Import Tariffs, Decision Is Expected To Benefit Antwerp

The Main Reason Was That The US Does Not Have A Domestic Diamond Mining Or Cutting Industry That Needs Protection From European imports.

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Natural diamonds cut in Europe will no longer face US import tariffs after the US government removed the 10% duty that had been in place for the past six months.

The decision is expected to benefit Antwerp, Europe’s largest diamond cutting and trading hub. According to the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), Belgium exported $2.1 billion worth of polished diamonds to the US in 2024.

The exemption was first introduced in September 2025 after discussions between the AWDC and the European Commission. The main reason was that the US does not have a domestic diamond mining or cutting industry that needs protection from European imports.

The reasons for granting the exemption remain unchanged- no diamonds are mined or cut in the US, so there is no local industry that requires tariff protection.

The earlier exemption ended in February 2026 after the US Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The US government then imposed a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act, which also applied to European polished diamonds.

After this surcharge expired on July 24, the US introduced new tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act. These tariffs target countries that do not have adequate measures to prevent imports linked to forced labor. However, natural diamonds cut in Europe have been exempted from these tariffs.

According to the US Trade Representative (USTR), the European Union is still strengthening its forced-labor regulations, which are expected to be fully implemented by December 2027.

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