Key highlights

• Gold’s new milestone: Gold recently crossed US$3,000/oz intraday – a headline-worthy event, but the true significance for gold lies in the broader economic trends driving its rise
• Price momentum: Gold surged from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000 in just 210 days, pushing it three standard deviations above its 200-day moving average
• Market fundamentals: While gold may face some consolidation due to the speed of its latest move, the combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, rising inflation, lower rates and a weaker US dollar continue to provide powerful tailwinds to investment demand.

Gold (briefly) breaks through another psychological level

Gold crossed US$3,000/oz in intra-day trading during the early hours of Friday 14 March and then again on Monday 17 March.1 While the LBMA Gold Price PM hasn’t officially crossed the mark, setting at US$2,996.50/oz on Monday, it has nonetheless grabbed the attention of investors and media outlets around the world, triggering a myriad of questions about its significance.

So, what does this milestone really mean? Depending on who you ask: a lot or not much at all. For us, there are interesting psychological and technical aspects about this triple-zero ending price that could influence gold’s short-term behaviour. But the more meaningful – and lasting – dynamics are the ones behind gold’s performance over the past several months.

What’s meaningful about gold’s move?

Gold reached more than 40 new all-time highs in 2024 and fourteen more so far this year.2 Its upward move has been no coincidence and, in our most recent Gold Market Commentary, we talked about a potential perfect storm forming for gold. The focus isn’t just the number itself but the pace at which gold has reached it. The jump from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000/oz took just 210 days – a notably faster move that underscores the momentum gold has built over the past two years (Chart 1). Compare that to the approximate 1,700 days that gold took, on average, to achieve previous US$500/oz increments, and the move stands out (Table 1).  

In fairness, gold had to double in price to go from US$500/oz to US$1,000/oz, while it only had to rise 20% to go from US$2,500/oz to US$3,000/oz. To provide additional context, gold has increased nearly sixfold since December 2005, when it first reached US$500/oz, equivalent to an annualised return of 9.7%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 spot index has increased at a rate of 8.2% per year.3

To take this relative movement into account, we look instead at how much gold has deviated from its 200-day moving average (200DMA). The recent rally has pushed gold’s price three standard deviations (3σ) above the long-term average spread of its 200DMA (Chart 2). Most recently, we saw this extreme divergence during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when gold crossed US$2,000/oz and again around the time gold reached US$2,500/oz. Following these moves there was a period of consolidation before the upward trend eventually resumed.

What’s next?

As the saying goes, “even strong rallies need to catch their breath.” Gold has remained, on average, above previous multiples of US$500/oz for nine days before pulling back (Table 1). At the same time, however, gold has rebounded above the same level in just a few days four out of five times.

From a technical and positioning standpoint, if gold were to remain above US$3,000/oz over the next couple of weeks, it would likely trigger additional buying from derivatives contracts. For example, we estimate there is roughly US$8bn in net delta-adjusted notional in options contracts from US gold ETFs that expire Friday 21 March,4 and US$16bn in options on futures that expire on 26 March. While this may create a slingshot effect, it could also trigger short-term-profit taking.

In view of the speed of gold’s latest move, it would not be surprising to see some price consolidation. But despite potential short-term volatility, the most important determinant for gold’s next move is whether fundamentals can provide long-term support to its trend. As we discussed in our recent Gold Demand Trends, while price strength will likely create headwinds for gold jewellery demand, push recycling up and motivate some profit taking, there are many reasons to believe that investment demand will continue to be supported by a combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, rising inflation, lower rates and a weaker US dollar.

GJIIF provides strong boost as trade prepares for Akshaya Tritiya

• Marked increase in Pan-India visitors and International participants
• Significant retailer presence – from small stores to corporate chains
• Concurrent events – Networking Evening and Knowledge Seminars – add sparkle to the show

The Akshaya Tritiya edition of South India’s oldest and most premier B2B jewellery event, Gem & Jewellery India International Fair (GJIIF) 2025 was a resounding success with turnout and business transactions exceeding expectations all round.

The venue remained crowded on all the three days with over 10,000 visitors, and the general overall feedback indicated that exhibitors were extremely satisfied having registering outright orders. Most also reported success in widening their clientnetwork with new potential contacts.

GJIIF, organised by the Jewellers and Diamond Traders Association, Madras (MJDTA) and Tamil Nadu Jewellers Federation (TNJF), is the only B2B jewellery show in the country with an exclusive focus on South Indian jewellery. This edition, held from February 28 to March 2, 2025 was well timed to help the trade prepare for the all-important Akshaya Tritiya festival.

Jayantilal Challani, Convener-GJIIF and President, MJDTA, said, “This year GJIIF was bigger and better in many ways. Not only were there more exhibitors and visitors than before, we also saw positive sentiment driving business deals. As the only show focusing on South Indian jewellery, GJIIF has become a must-visit event for large corporates and multi-store retailers, as well as huge numbers of smaller and medium retailers from the region.”

The show had over 400 exhibitors spread over 870 stalls covering a mammoth 2,00,000 sq ft area. These included many renowned manufacturers and wholesalers, most of whom have now been present at the show consistently for years. They believe GJIIF is the ideal platform to introduce new designs for the Akshaya Tritiya festival to the trade and feel GJIIF as the Gateway to South Indian Jewellery Market. Many new exhibitors also attracted attention with their innovative and creative offerings.

Over the years, the profile of the GJIIF has evolved from being a purely regional trade show to one that attracted visitors from all across India. This year, GJIIF took a further leap, welcoming a large number of overseas buyers including leaders of trade bodies from South Asia and South-East Asia too. Business visitors from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, Middle East, China and a few other places were also present.

Emphasising the key role that GJIIF plays for the retail trade, B Sabarinath, President TNJF said, “Most exhibitors not only had many visitors but also reported good business. Every visitor was keen to book orders to ensure that they have new collections for the auspicious wedding & festival season up ahead. There was a vast variety of choice, with many new designs that gave a contemporary look to the traditional southern ornaments.”

GJIIF has also been recognised as a premier trade event due to its business-friendly environment. Registration procedures, both prior to the event and at the show, have been streamlined for easy entry while maintaining strict B2B norms. The well-organised layout and the hospitality arrangements go a long way in allowing participants to focus on their business goals. 

“The Organising Team aims to raise the bar each year while planning and executing GJIIF to ensure the highest standards in the arrangements and hospitality of top quality,” said V.K. Manoj, Project Director, United Exhibitions, the event managers. “GJIIF is a landmark event for the South Indian industry, with the entire jewellery fraternity – from the largest to the smallest – visiting the show to do business and network.”

Alongside, the main show there are also concurrent events of equally high quality & focused seminars, panel discussions and educational presentations to enhance knowledge-sharing and future preparedness.Among thehighlights of the three-day event were the Networking Nite & Gala Dinner for the informal interaction where the attendees were enthralled by the high-powered performance of world-renowned band STACCATO, a well know name in global musical circles.

GJIIF Festive Edition 2025 will be held in Chennai from 12^th to 14^th September 2025.

Jewellery Machinery & Allied India International Expo (JMAIIE 2025), the fourth edition of the largest show dedicated to manufacturing technology, ended on a very successful note, with healthy business across all machinery categories. JMAIIE 2025featured 300+ exhibitors with nearly 70% of them representing top global players.The event generated significant awareness through both online and offline promotions, attracting a large number of visitors. The show saw  6000+ visitors in attendance, both from India and abroad. JMAIIE is organized by KNC SERVICES and powered by JEWELLERY MACHINERY & ACCESSORIES FORUM

JMAIIE provided an unparalleled platform to showcase jewellery manufacturing technology from India and across the globe.JMAIIE is one of the most anticipated exhibitions in the jewellery manufacturing machinery industry, bringing together leading manufacturers, exporters, and professionals from across the globe. The show proved itself as a dynamic platform for showcasing technology, innovation, and manufacturing expertise.

JMAIIE 2025 was inaugurated at BEC, Mumbai by  Chief Guest Farhad Sethna, Chairman-JMA Forum, alongwith Guest of Honor Kevin James, Managing Director – Goodwin Refractory Services India Pvt. Ltd. Present at the inauguration were Kranti Nagvekar, Founder- KNC Services, Naresh Balani, Vice Chairman – JMA Forum,members of JMA Forum and other dignitaries from the G&J Industry.

 “JMAIIE is firmly established in the global calendar of jewellery machinery expos. JMAIIE is reaching further and wider than before”, said Kevin James.

“JMAIIE is first exclusive platform for jewellery machinery. With every edition we are heading in the right direction to make JMAIIE the biggest in the world”, said Farhad Sethna.

“JMAIIE is a game-changer, driving technological advancements that redefine the jewellery industry. As we celebrate the 4th edition with KNC, we embrace AI and innovation in jewellery machinery, shaping a brighter future for India and Asia.” said Chetan Kumar Mehta-. President- Jewellery Division, IBJA – India, President – Jewellers Association Bengaluru  Chairman & Managing Director – Laxmi Diamonds, Bengaluru.

A highlight at JMAIIE was the INNOVATIVE PAVILION . Cutting edge technological innovations were showcased at the pavilion. The Pavilion featured innovations from UNITED ENTERPRISE, ACZEL, MAXSELL, GB AUTOMATION, SUPERSONICS, FISCHER.

“I am grateful to the wholehearted support from the industry.I thank the exhibitors, visitors, media and all who contributed to the success from JMAIIE.With the support of all we are certain JMAIIE will be bigger, better and more constructive”, said Kranti Nagvekar, Founder  KNC Services