Gold and silver are trading on a weaker footing, as worries about inflation and higher interest rates resurfaced after fresh US strikes on Iran pushed oil prices and the dollar higher, just ahead of the Fed’s June meeting minutes. This fresh flare-up put the interim US-Iran peace deal at risk and sent oil prices climbing, reviving inflation concerns and boosting the case for another rate hike.

• Geopolitical Tensions – The US military launched a new round of strikes on Iran on Tuesday and pulled Iran’s licence to sell oil, after three tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. US oil prices jumped, Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar held near its strongest levels of the week against most currencies, as the strikes piled pressure on an already shaky ceasefire.

• Macro-Economic Signals – Investors were also waiting on the minutes from the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting, due later today, for fresh clues on where interest rates are headed under Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets have now pushed up the odds of a September rate hike to over 63%, up from around 57% just a day earlier.

Technical Triggers      

• Gold’s rebound from its recent low of $3,942 (~Rs 1,40,600) to $4,200 (~Rs 1,48,000) happened very quickly, so a pullback to the $4,080–4,100 range (~Rs 1,44,000) wouldn’t be surprising before the rally resumes toward $4,350 (~Rs 1,53,500).
• Silver could see a similar pause, dipping toward $59 (~Rs 2,30,000) before pushing higher again toward the $70–71 zone (~Rs 2,52,000).

Support and Resistance