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Is it wise to buy gold this Akshaya Tritiya? :AUGMONT KNOWLEDGE SERIES

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Akshaya Tritiya, celebrated as an auspicious day to invest in gold, often sees a surge in gold purchases across India. But in 2025, with gold prices touching all-time highs, the big question for investors and buyers alike is: Is it wise to buy gold this Akshaya Tritiya?

Over the last 20 years, gold has delivered approx.15% CAGR, which is quite robust, especially in comparison with many fixed-income instruments and even some equity segments during market volatility. Gold has also acted as a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical uncertainties.

 

Why Gold Has Performed Well

Several factors have supported gold prices in recent years:

  • Geopolitical tensions: Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Palestine unrest, and US-China trade concerns.
  • Inflation worries: Gold is a traditional inflation hedge.
  • Global economic uncertainty: Fears of a recession and a weak global economic outlook.
  • Central bank buying: Many countries, including India and China, have increased gold reserves.
  • Currency depreciation: The weakening of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar added to local gold price inflation.

Why You Should Consider Buying

  • Tradition with benefits: Buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya is culturally symbolic and has proven profitable historically.
  • Diversification: Gold acts as a portfolio stabilizer, especially during market downturns.
  • Returns remain promising: With global uncertainties continuing and rate cuts expected in the US, gold may remain supported in the near term.
  • Demand for digital and investment-grade gold is rising: More buyers are shifting toward efficient, value-oriented gold investments.

Caution Due to High Prices

  • Gold prices are near historical highs (₹96,000 per 10 grams), so bulk buying may not be advisable.
  • A correction could occur if:
    • US-China tensions ease.
    • Interest rates rise unexpectedly.
    • Investors shift their focus back to risk assets like equities.

Smart Buying Strategy for 2025

Buy with a measured and strategic approach:

  1. Avoid large lump sum purchases: Instead, opt for staggered buying or SIPs in gold digital gold or ETFs.
  2. Use Akshaya Tritiya as an entry point: Start small with Augmont Digital Gold or gold mutual funds.
  3. Buy coins or smaller jewellery pieces: Avoid heavy making charges; focus on purity and resale value.
  4. Think long term: If you’re buying gold as an asset, not just a purchase, stay invested for 3–5 years.

Final Word

Akshaya Tritiya 2025 presents an opportunity to align tradition with smart investing. While prices are high, gold’s long-term track record, safe-haven status, and cultural relevance make it a viable addition to your portfolio. Just remember to balance emotional purchases with financial prudence—and consider buying in forms that add both value and flexibility.

In short: Yes, buy gold—but buy smart.

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Foreign exchange  reserves declined by $11.413 billion to $698.346 billion

Forex drop due to a sharp fall in gold reserves:RBI

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As of March 28, 2026, the Reserve Bank of India’s latest data reveals a brutal $30.14 billion evaporation in forex reserves over just three weeks. The headline-grabber? A staggering $13.49 billion collapse in gold reserves in a single week.

While the official line points to “valuation effects,” the underlying reality is a cocktail of geopolitical warfare, a bleeding Rupee, and an RBI backed into a corner.

For years, gold was the “safe haven.” In March 2026, it became a weight. The drop to $117.19 billion wasn’t because the RBI sold the family silver—it’s because the global gold market just endured its worst weekly rout in four decades.

  • The Paper Flush: As the US-Iran conflict escalated, institutional investors faced massive margin calls on their stock portfolios. They didn’t sell gold because they lost faith in it; they sold it because it was the only liquid asset left to cover their losses.
  • The Yield Trap: With oil breaching $110, inflation fears have spiked. This has forced the US Fed to signal “higher for longer” rates, making non-yielding gold look like an expensive hobby compared to high-interest US Treasuries.

The Rupee isn’t just sliding; it’s in a freefall. Falling over 4% in March alone and nearly 10% for the fiscal year, the Indian unit is gasping at record lows near 94.81/$1.

The central bank is fighting a multi-front war:

  1. Crude Oil Shock: Brent crude at $110 is a direct tax on India’s dollar reserves.
  2. The Forward Book Time Bomb: The RBI’s net short dollar position in the forward market is estimated to have ballooned to $100 billion.
  3. Import Cover Erosion: Adjusting for these forward positions, India’s “real” import cover has shriveled from 11 months to just 9.4 months.

If West Asia remains a tinderbox, the buffer that felt “invincible” at $728 billion in February could look skeletal by 2027. Some analysts are already eyeing a drop to $636 billion as the new reality.The RBI is no longer just “managing volatility”; it is performing triage on a currency being pummeled by global m

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