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Gudi Padwa jewellery sales flat; demand for gold coins surges

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 Gold prices have surged to nearly Rs 90,000 per 10 grams (excluding GST) in the physical market, leading to a noticeable decline in jewellery sales in Maharashtra/Goa during Gudi Padwa, a festival traditionally associated with gold purchases. Despite this, demand for gold coins as an investment remains strong, as consumers anticipate further price appreciation. Mumbai’s largest gold hub has observed a shift in consumer behavior toward gold coins and bars. Traders said  that buyers are purchasing gold coins with the expectation of future price increases.

As of Gudi Padwa, gold prices have reached nearly Rs 90,000 per 10 grams, making gold jewellery significantly more expensive. Higher prices have deterred traditional jewellery buyers, shifting demand towards investment-oriented purchases, such as gold coins. Industry experts anticipate that gold prices may continue to rise, reinforcing gold’s status as a long-term store of value.

Equal demand was observed between gold jewellery and investment-grade coins. Retailers introduced discounts and exchange offers, but high prices still impacted sales volume.Tier-2 cities experienced similar trends, with more gold coin buyers than jewellery shoppers. Lightweight jewellery, silver accessories, and gold-plated ornaments saw higher traction compared to heavy gold jewellery.

Global trade tensions and potential U.S. Fed rate cuts are boosting gold’s attractiveness as an investment. Investors are shifting towards gold due to its historical role as a hedge against inflation and economic instability The Indian Rupee’s performance against the U.S. Dollar is also a contributing factor to local gold price fluctuations.

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Domestic Gold Futures Decline On Weak Spot Demand and A Stronger US Dollar

International bullion remains on track for a positive monthly close.Geopolitical tensions, safe-haven interest, and US interest-rate expectations continue to floor global prices.

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Domestic gold futures dipped to Rs. 1,44,022 per 10g under pressure from weak spot demand and a stronger US dollar. In contrast, physical spot gold in Delhi’s retail market edged up by Rs. 300 to reach Rs. 1,48,300 per 10g, bolstered by fresh buying from retailers and jewellers. Meanwhile, domestic silver (inclusive of taxes) held firm and unchanged at Rs. 2,24,700 per kg, reflecting range-bound trading amid mixed market cues.

Domestic Strength vs. Futures Pressure

  • Spot Demand Near Highs: Domestic physical gold hovered near record levels, getting a boost from fresh retail purchases and jeweller demand in Delhi.
  • Futures Soften: MCX/Domestic futures experienced downward pressure driven by a stronger US dollar and localized spot weakness.

2. Global Bullion Dynamics

  • First Monthly Gain in 5 Months: Despite mild profit-taking, international bullion remains on track for a positive monthly close.
  • Core Support: Geopolitical tensions, safe-haven interest, and US interest-rate expectations continue to floor global prices.

3. Macro Headwinds: Crude Oil & US Data

  • Crude Oil Rebound: Rising Brent and WTI prices revived broader inflation worries, dampening investor risk appetite for gold and capping upside potential.
  • Fed Rate Triggers: Markets are sitting tight ahead of crucial US economic indicators, specifically consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and employment cost data.
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