International News
Gold prices surged to an all-time high breaching $3,300/oz
Gold prices surged to an all-time high on Wednesday, breaching $3,300 an ounce in international spot markets for the first time as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions sent investors fleeing to traditional safe havens.
The yellow metal climbed to $3,318 per ounce in overseas trading, extending its recent rally and drawing closer to the symbolic ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams mark for 24-karat gold in India. Domestically, prices mirrored the global trend: in Delhi, gold was quoted at ₹98,100 per 10 grams by evening, while June futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) hit a record ₹95,435.
President Trump’s directive for a probe into critical minerals added to the market anxiety, reinforcing the rush toward safe haven assets.
The sharp price escalation, however, has chilled consumer demand in India—the world’s second-largest gold market—prompting local jewelers to sell at a discount to imported prices. Gold is currently trading at a 1–2% discount to its landing cost in Indian markets.
Meanwhile, silver has trailed the gold rally. International spot prices for the white metal hovered around $32.80 per ounce Wednesday, crossing ₹1,00,000 per kilogram in Delhi, but still lagging behind gold in terms of momentum.
For now, analysts expect gold’s bullish run to persist, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and growing investor caution.
International News
WGC Gold Market Commentary-Go With The Flow
September Was Unusual: Despite The Price Decline,Global Gold ETFs Recorded US $10bn (67t) Of Inflows Across Regions. North America Led The Charge, Followed By Europe and Asia.
September review
A surge in US Treasury yields and the US dollar alongside a drop in futures positions helped drive prices lower in September, despite
Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia.
Key Takeaways & Market Drivers
1. September Price Retreat
- Price Movement: Gold dropped 8.5% m/m in September to close at $4,176/oz (USD), experiencing broad declines across all major international currencies.
- Primary Drivers: Macro headwinds drove prices lower, specifically a 53 bps surge in US 10-year Treasury yields (to 5.3%) and a 2% gain in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as captured by the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM).
- Derivatives Liquidation: COMEX net managed money positions shrank by $12bn (84t), while spreading positions fell by $22bn (156t), putting heavy downward pressure on spot prices.
2. Divergence: Physical ETFs vs. Derivatives
- Unusual Contrast: While futures/derivatives positions liquidated sharply, physical demand held firm—global gold ETFs saw strong net inflows of $10bn (67t) in September, led by North America, Europe, and Asia.
3. Stellar European & UK Demand in Q3
- Record Demand: UK-listed gold ETFs recorded 54 tonnes of inflows in Q3 (inflows in 12 of 13 weeks), far exceeding model predictions of 18t (a 36t excess).
- Macro Shift: Historical relationships fail to explain the surge. However, since July, excess UK ETF inflows have strongly correlated (r = 0.51) with rising UK term premia.
- Fiscal Concerns: Investors appear increasingly focused on long-term fiscal sustainability (highlighted by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility’s warnings) and persistent inflation risks rather than transient policy events.
Outlook: What to Watch in October
- Fed & Central Bank Meetings: Markets have lowered expectations for further monetary tightening across the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England.
- Key Signal: If bond yields and term premia remain elevated despite dovish rate expectations, it will signal deeper structural concerns regarding fiscal deficits, which should continue supporting strategic gold demand.
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