There was a modest decline in gold prices during the early European trading session on Friday. Following a sharp rally that saw the precious metal reach an all-time high of $3,358 per ounce, the price of gold has edged lower, largely attributed to profit-taking behavior by investors ahead of the long Easter weekend.

Despite this short-term dip, several underlying factors continue to reinforce gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Foremost among these is the growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, particularly with regard to import tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump. Additionally, broader concerns about a potential recession and persistent geopolitical tensions add to investor unease, prompting many to maintain positions in historically secure assets like gold.

Meanwhile, the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy remains a key influence on gold prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has recently adopted a more hawkish tone, signaling diminished prospects for a rate cut in June. This shift suggests a tightening of monetary policy, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and, in turn, place downward pressure on gold, which is priced in USD. Powell’s comments also underscore the challenging balance the Fed faces: while inflation remains elevated, economic growth appears to be softening—conditions that could give rise to a stag-flationary scenario.

Gold prices have surged to an all-time high today, fueled by a lower dollar, trade war tensions, and concerns about global economic growth as a result of US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which prompted safe-haven inflows.

On Tuesday, President Trump ordered a probe into potential duties on all vital mineral imports, signalling a tougher stance on trade and potentially influencing relations with important suppliers, notably China.

This development somewhat negates the market relief provided by the recent exclusion of certain tech products from reciprocal tariffs, as well as the suggestion of possible exemptions for auto parts.

Increasing chances of a deeper recession, another turn in the geopolitical landscape, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of increasing inflation coupled with a changing rate outlook suggest that gold will maintain its strong position in the near future.

Technical Triggers      

As the gold active Jun contract has sustained above $3245, is expected to continue its bullish momentum to touch $3300 (~Rs 95000) and $3320 (~Rs 95500) going ahead.

Silver after achieving the target of $32 (~Rs 94000), we are likely to see this rally extending further towards $33 (Rs 95500) and beyond this week.

Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid persistent trade-related uncertainties.Bets for aggressive policy easing by the Fed and a weaker USD also benefit the XAU/USD pair. Investors now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for some meaningful impetus.

Gold prices surged toward the $3,300 mark on Wednesday, driven by persistent safe-haven demand amid escalating US-China trade tensions and growing fears of a US recession. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025—potentially totaling 100 basis points—have further weakened the US Dollar, bolstering gold’s appeal.

 Despite slightly overbought technical conditions, XAU/USD remains strong, supported by diminished investor confidence in US economic policies following President Trump’s erratic tariff moves. China’s stronger-than-expected economic data has done little to offset concerns over the intensifying trade war. All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, which could offer crucial insight into the future rate trajectory and shape near-term market sentiment.