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Gold and Silver Prices Set to Surge in 2025- Gold Could Reach Rs 90000

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Gold prices in India surged by 21% in 2024, driven by central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and strong global demand. As of January 1, 2025, gold prices were Rs 78,000 per 10 grams for 24K, with predictions pointing towards a rise to Rs 85,000-90,000 in 2025. While gold outperformed other commodities in 2024, experts recommend a “buy-on-dips” strategy for investors, as prices may consolidate before further gains. Geopolitical tensions and central bank actions will continue to support the demand for gold and silver.

Silver also saw impressive gains in 2024, with prices expected to reach Rs 1.1-1.25 lakh per kg, fueled by industrial and investment demand. Experts like Manav Modi from Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintain a positive outlook for both metals in the medium to long term, forecasting potential price growth even amid market fluctuations. However, while Rs 1 lakh for gold is considered optimistic, extreme economic conditions could push it towards that mark.

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National News

Smuggled Gold Distorting India’s Bullion Market

Sharp Rise In Smuggled Gold, Driven Largely By The May 2026 Hike In Import Duty To 15%, Which Has Made The Grey Market Significantly Cheaper Than Legal Channels and Squeezed Legitimate Dealers and Jewellers

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India’s bullion market is being skewed by a sharp rise in smuggled gold, driven largely by the May 2026 hike in import duty to 15%, which has made the grey market significantly cheaper than legal channels and squeezed legitimate dealers and jewellers.

Market distortion and price gap

  • Smuggled gold is now selling at discounts of up to Rs 8,000 per 10 grams compared with official prices, creating a wide arbitrage that undercuts compliant traders.
  • Industry executives warn that this price gap is a clear signal of an active grey market, disadvantaging genuine bullion dealers and organised jewellers who pay full duty and taxes.

Scale of illegal inflows

  • Industry estimates suggest more than 100 tonnes of gold could enter India through illegal channels in 2026, echoing past surges in smuggling after earlier duty hikes.
  • Despite the higher tariff, India’s gold import bill rose 24% to a record $71.9 billion in FY26, even as physical volumes fell to about 721 tonnes, indicating persistent demand being met partly via unofficial routes.

Enforcement response

  • Revenue intelligence agencies, particularly the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), have intensified operations against organised smuggling networks using airports, land borders, coastal routes and domestic road transport
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