Gold prices on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) staged a sharp rebound today, March 27,climbing almost 1% to Rs.1,43,829 per 10 grams for June futures, fueled by value buying against a backdrop of dollar weakness. MCX silver May contracts outperformed, rising nearly 2% to Rs.2,23,978 per kilogram in early trades.

The uptick comes after a bruising month for the yellow metal. Domestic spot gold rates have plummeted about 9% so far in March, battered by volatility tied to the escalating US-Iran war in West Asia. This conflict has propelled crude oil prices to elevated levels, bolstering the dollar index and pressuring gold as investors rotated into safer currencies.

Today’s reversal gained momentum from a softer US dollar, with the dollar index dipping 0.10%. For India’s gems and jewellery sector—where gold dominates 80% of wedding and festive demand—these swings underscore the fragility of MSME exporters reliant on stable import costs.

Yet, headwinds persist. Soaring crude prices, now hovering near $90 per barrel due to West Asian tensions, continue to inflate India’s import bill and fuel inflation fears. This dynamic weighs on gold’s safe-haven appeal, even as global central banks signal potential rate cuts later this year.

Jewellery retailers in Mumbai report cautious optimism, with some stocking up on dips for Akshaya Tritiya demand. However, sustained geopolitical risks could cap gains, as higher oil translates to pricier logistics for bullion imports.

Analysts eye COMEX gold at $2,650/oz for cues, with support at Rs.1,42,000 on MCX. For the trade, this volatility highlights the need for hedging tools and diversified sourcing amid Middle East uncertainties.