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SILVER INSTITUTE REPORT Global silver market forecast to remain in a sizeable deficit in 2025

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1. Market Deficit Dynamics

  • Fifth Consecutive Deficit: The silver market is projected to remain in a deficit of 149 million ounces (Moz) in 2025, marking the fifth straight year of supply shortfalls. Though the deficit shrinks by 19% year-on-year, it remains historically significant, signaling persistent structural imbalances.
  • Demand Stability: Global demand holds steady at 1.2 billion ounces, with industrial applications (notably green tech and electronics) offsetting declines in jewelry and silverware.

2. Industrial Demand Drivers

  • Record Industrial Use: Industrial fabrication grows 3% to over 700 Moz, driven by:
    • Green Economy: Photovoltaics (PV) installations hit new highs globally, despite potential U.S. renewable energy slowdowns under Trump.
    • Automotive Sector: Vehicle electrification and infrastructure expansion boost silver use, even with slower EV growth.
    • AI and Electronics: Artificial intelligence drives demand for consumer electronics.

3. Jewelry and Silverware Weakness

  • Price Sensitivity: High silver prices lead to a 6% drop in jewelry demand (notably -10%+ in India) and a 16% decline in silverware fabrication.
  • Western Resilience: Shift from gold to silver jewelry in Western markets supports demand, particularly for branded products.

4. Supply-Side Growth

  • Mine Production Rises 2%: Output reaches 844 Moz (7-year high), aided by expansions in Canada (Keno Hill), Chile (Salares Norte), Morocco (Zgounder), and China.
  • Recycling Surge: Recycling grows 5% to over 200 Moz (first since 2012), led by industrial scrap (e.g., ethylene oxide catalysts) and Indian price-driven liquidations.
  • Base Metal Risks: Flat by-product output from lead-zinc mines due to suppressed base metal prices poses supply risks.

5. Investment Trends

  • Recovery in Physical Investment: Up 3% in Europe/North America as investors adjust to higher prices, though India sees profit-taking.
  • Macro Drivers: Geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. debt concerns, and potential Fed rate cuts underpin safe-haven demand. Short covering in futures markets (linked to Trump tariff fears) boosts prices.
  • Gold-Silver Ratio: Elevated ratio suggests silver may be undervalued relative to gold, offering potential upside if sentiment shifts.

6. Risks and Challenges

  • Trade Policy Impact: Trump’s tariffs could dampen global growth and industrial metals demand, though silver’s dual role (industrial/investment) may buffer it.
  • Real Rates and Inflation: Sticky inflation and anticipated rate cuts could lower real rates, benefiting precious metals.

7. Forward Outlook

  • Price Support: Deficit persistence, industrial demand resilience, and safe-haven inflows suggest a bullish floor for prices.
  • Watchpoints: Tariff impacts, base metal production trends, and Fed policy shifts will be critical in 2025.

The 2025 silver market reflects a delicate balance: robust industrial demand and investment recovery counterbalance supply growth and jewelry weakness. While risks from trade policies and base metals linger, silver’s structural role in the green transition and as a monetary asset positions it for sustained relevance. Investors should monitor the April 2025 World Silver Survey for deeper insights into evolving dynamics

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International News

Türkiye’s jewellery exports surge by 79.1% in February 2025

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Türkiye’s jewellery exports soared to 861.6 million dollars in February, marking a significant 79.1 percent increase compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM).

Jewellery exports accounted for 4.1 percent of Türkiye’s total exports, with the sector boasting a diverse product portfolio. Gold jewellery and jewellery articles led the exports with a total value of 714.5 million dollars, while other notable product categories included unprocessed or semi-processed gold, silver items, cultured pearls, precious stones, and watches.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) emerged as Türkiye’s top market for jewellery exports, with shipments amounting to 411.7 million dollars in February. This positions the UAE as the most significant destination for Turkish jewellery. The USA, Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Kyrgyzstan followed with exports valued at 56.6, 53.4, 45.2, and 43.5 million dollars, respectively.

Exports to the UAE saw an exceptional rise of 275 million dollars in February, with other countries, including Switzerland, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, and Belgium, also registering notable growth. Türkiye exported 40.9 million dollars’ worth of jewellery to Libya and 13.3 million dollars to Belgium, reflecting the sector’s expanding global reach.

On a provincial basis, Istanbul remains the epicentre of Türkiye’s jewellery exports, contributing 605.8 million dollars to the total in February. Other major contributors included Çorum with 228.2 million dollars, followed by Trabzon (13.8 million dollars), Kastamonu (7 million dollars), Sakarya (2.9 million dollars), and Ankara (1.6 million dollars).

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DiamondBuzz

IGI reports a 17 % increase in revenue for 2024; 29 % growth in profit

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The International Gemological Institute (IGI), a leading grading company in the lab-grown diamond market, has reported record financial performance for the calendar year (CY) 2024. The company achieved a 17% increase in revenue and a remarkable 29% growth in profit, driven largely by its dominant 65% share of the global lab-grown diamond grading market.

  • Revenue: $120.8 million (INR 10.53 billion), marking a 17% increase compared to the previous year.
  • Profit After Tax: $49 million (INR 4.27 billion), reflecting a substantial 29% year-over-year growth.
  • Market Share: IGI continues to dominate the lab-grown diamond grading market with a 65% global share.

IGI’s strong financial performance has been supported by its market leadership and strategic business decisions. The company went public in December 2023 with an initial public offering (IPO) that valued IGI at $3.5 billion. This marked a significant valuation jump from its $570 million acquisition price when Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager, took ownership in May 2023.

Eashwar Iyer, IGI’s Global Chief Financial Officer (CFO), emphasized the company’s operational strength and strategic execution, attributing the record revenue and profit growth to IGI’s ability to capitalize on market opportunities and strengthen its competitive position.

IGI’s robust financial performance underscores the expanding demand for lab-grown diamonds and the growing importance of reliable certification in the industry. The company’s continued leadership in this segment reinforces its credibility and positions it for sustained growth in the future.

IGI’s record-breaking financial results in 2024 highlight its dominant market position, successful strategic initiatives, and ability to drive profitability. With a strong financial foundation and continued expansion, IGI remains at the forefront of the lab-grown diamond grading industry, setting benchmarks for excellence and growth.

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DiamondBuzz

Alrosa confirms it is suspending production at its low-margin mines

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Alrosa has confirmed that it is suspending production at its low-margin mines amid what it calls a “deep crisis” in the industry. The sanctioned Russian miner said last November it was considering such a move, but would wait and see what happened to rough prices.

Mining at the Verkhne-Munskoye deposit’s Zapolyarny and Magnitny open pits will now be suspended from June 15, and at alluvial deposits in the Anabar River valley – Khara-Mas and Ochuos, operated by Alrosa’s subsidiary Almazy Anabara – from April 1.

The suspension of activity at all deposits producing under 1m carats will reduce direct costs by $107m (RUB 9bn) during the year, the company said in a statement. They account for 3 per cent of Alrosa’s total output.

Alrosa also said forecast production for 2025 would remain unchanged at 29m carats. Ore already mined at the smaller deposits would ore mined at the deposits continue to be milled until next year, it said.

Earlier this month Alrosa reported a 77 per cent slump in profits for 2024 (down to $223m) after G7 sanctions were tightened last March to include Russian goods regardless of where they were cut and polished. The company has said it could lay off some of its 35,000 workers and ii is expected to offload more of its diamonds to Gokhran, the state-run depository.

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