JB Insights
WGC REPORT: India gold market update: Seasonal strength
Highlights
- Gold prices soften from record highs yet remain supported
- Domestic prices slide back into discount
- Gold demand, led by investment buying, strengthened during the festive period, but softened thereafter
- Gold ETFs continue strong momentum in October with record inflows and new investors
- Gold imports soar in October, despite the price rally
Looking ahead
- The busy wedding season over the coming months (November–March), with a high number of anticipated weddings, is expected to support jewellery demand.
- Investment interest in gold is likely to persist amid broadly bullish sentiment around gold.
Prices retreat from peak, but maintain firm trend
International gold price1 recorded a sharp rally in October, hitting its 50th record high of the year during the month. Although price eased by about 7% from the peak, it still ended October 5% higher at US$4,011.5/oz. The momentum carried into November, with price up nearly 3% m-t-d as of 19 November. This sustained performance has lifted gold’s y-t-d gains to 58%.
Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests that recent movements in international gold prices have been driven by geopolitical risk, higher implied volatility, a stronger US dollar, as well as momentum and evolving interest-rate expectations.
Domestic gold prices have largely tracked the international trend but have delivered even stronger returns, recording 63% y-t-d growth. The higher domestic gains are attributed to the 3.3% depreciation of the Indian rupee. Domestic gold prices, which had mostly traded at par with, or at a premium to, the international price over the past two months, shifted to a discount following the peak festive demand period (Chart 2), with the m-t-d2 discount averaging US$18/oz.
Festive demand shines, tapers after
Festive demand around Diwali and Dhanteras3 – India’s peak gold-buying occasions – was reportedly strong despite record-high prices, according to feedback from industry stakeholders. Market participants consistently highlighted that the strength was driven primarily by investment-oriented buying, particularly bars and coins, with some noting volume nearly doubling from a year ago. E-commerce platforms also saw solid sales,4 and digital gold purchases rose too. Unified Payments Interface (UPI) data shows digital gold purchases increasing 62% m/m to INR22bn (US$259mn) in October.5 In tonnage terms, the volume rose 45% m/m to 1.8t.
Jewellery sales also held up well during the festive period, with retailers reporting healthy sales across both single-store and large multi-store formats, the latter benefitting from brand trust and promotional initiatives. Although jewellery volumes were softer due to elevated prices, the overall value of sales remained healthy, reportedly up by around a quarter y/y for many, reflecting resilient festive buying sentiment.
Post-Diwali, demand has reportedly softened. Industry feedback suggests market activity in November has been subdued, despite the onset of the wedding season. Jewellery buying is largely wedding-driven, while investment demand persists. Supply of old gold into the market has reportedly moderated. Trade participants attribute this to consumers having exhausted surplus gold for immediate needs and now choosing to hold onto jewellery in expectation of further price gains. Jewellers remain cautiously optimistic that the ongoing wedding season (November–March) will boost jewellery sales, given the expected large number of weddings.
ETFs: persistent strong inflows
October marked the sixth consecutive month of strong inflows into Indian gold ETFs, emphasising the growing appeal of gold as an investment asset in various forms.
Net inflows for the month were INR77bn (US$876mn), a modest 8% decline from the previous month, largely in line with our estimates.7 Despite this moderation, the figure remained significantly higher than the y-t-d average of INR28bn (US$315mn). The dip was primarily due to a sharp rise in redemptions, which hit a record INR21bn (US$244mn). This surge in redemptions was likely driven by profit-taking following the rally in gold prices. Gross inflows for the month, however, set a record at INR99bn (US$11bn). The exceptional rise in gold prices likely drew investor attention, contributing to the strong inflows, while ongoing safe-haven demand further reinforced this trend. Net inflows have continued into November, reaching INR24bn (US$269mn) during the first 17 days of the month.8
The first 10 months of 2025 have been particularly strong for gold ETFs, with cumulative inflows totalling INR276bn (US$3.1bn) – the highest annual inflows on record. This surpasses the total inflows from March 2020 to December 2024. This unprecedented demand has propelled the assets of these funds to historic levels. As per AMFI data, as of end October, the assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs climbed to a record INR1,021bn (US$11.5bn) and gold holdings rose to 83.5t,9 nearly a third of which were added in 2025 alone.
The growing interest in gold ETFs was further evidenced by the increase in new investors. In October, a record 911,000 new accounts (folios) were added, bringing the total number of folios to 9.57mn, reflecting a 49% increase y-t-d.
In addition to the strong performance of existing gold ETFs, the market saw the launch of a new gold ETF in October,10 bringing the total number of gold ETFs in India to 23.
Imports surge to new peak in October despite price rally
Gold imports registered a sharp surge in October, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in both value and volume terms. Notably, the increase occurred despite domestic gold prices touching record highs – rising 60% y/y and 11% m/m11 – indicating resilient domestic demand. In value terms, imports climbed to US$14.7bn, the highest on record, translating into a ~200% y/y and 53% m/m increase. Import volumes also rose substantially, with inflows estimated at 137–142t, compared with 102t in September and 61t a year earlier. The October surge was largely driven by seasonal factors, i.e. the Diwali festivities and the onset of the wedding season.
On a y-t-d basis, gold imports have totalled US$51bn, an increase of 16% y/y. In contrast, the import volumes, estimated at around 559t, are down 12% from a year ago, reflecting the impact of elevated gold prices.
Gold and silver ended lower on the week despite sharp intraday rebounds, with price action reflecting continued volatility and fragile positioning rather than a sustained recovery. In the absence of a definitive macro catalyst, a broad-based decline across equities and cryptocurrencies prompted investors to raise liquidity, briefly dragging gold below the key $5,000 per ounce threshold. Non-yielding assets came under pressure as earlier stronger-than-expected US employment data pushed expectations for the first Federal Reserve rate cut further into midyear, reducing the appeal of bullion. Sentiment shifted, however, after inflation data showed annual CPI slowing to 2.4% and core inflation easing to 2.5%, reviving dovish expectations. The softer inflation print weighed on Treasury yields and pressured the dollar, allowing gold to recover toward the $4,990 region. Silver experienced similar turbulence, sliding sharply during the liquidation phase before rebounding above $76 per ounce, though it remained on track for another weekly decline.
Gnanasekar Thiagarajan
Introduction:
Gold finished the period under pressure despite sharp rebounds, with price action dominated by cross-asset volatility and shifting rate expectations. After initially recovering more than 2% on softer-than-expected US inflation, bullion briefly pushed back toward the $5,000–$5,020 region as annual CPI slowed to 2.4% and core inflation eased to 2.5%, reinforcing expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Lower yields and a softer dollar provided near-term relief, reviving the structural appeal of non-yielding assets.
However, gains proved fragile as the dollar rebounded and gold slipped back below $5,020, underscoring hesitation around the psychological $5,000 threshold. Earlier strength in US labor data had already delayed expectations for the first rate cut toward midyear, capping upside momentum. Markets now await further guidance from FOMC minutes, GDP data and the core PCE print, while geopolitical developments — including renewed US-Iran nuclear talks and broader Middle East tensions — continue to shape safe-haven flows.
Silver tracked gold’s volatility but continued to underperform structurally, remaining in a corrective phase after January’s extreme surge. The metal rebounded nearly 3% on softer inflation data and firmer rate-cut expectations, briefly moving back above $76 per ounce, but gains faded as liquidity stayed thin amid China holidays and broader risk sentiment remained fragile. Heavy speculative positioning left silver exposed to sharp reversals, and prices are still far below late-January highs above $120 after the collapse toward the mid-$60s. While lower yields and debasement concerns offer underlying support, near-term trade points to consolidation rather than a swift return to the prior rally.
Gold and Silver:
Gold fell below $5,020 per ounce on Monday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, following weaker-than-expected US CPI data. The soft inflation print reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with markets now pricing in slightly more than two reductions. Investors are awaiting the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the US GDP advance estimate, and PCE inflation data for further clues on the timing of the next rate cut. On the geopolitical front, traders are monitoring nuclear talks between the US and Iran, as well as US-led negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, both scheduled to resume on Tuesday. Developments in these areas could influence risk sentiment and safe-haven demand. Despite recent volatility, the precious metal remained supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies.
Silver March
Silver fell more than 1% toward $76 per ounce on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session, although trading volumes were subdued due to market holidays in the US, China and other countries. On Friday, the metal had jumped nearly 3% after soft US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. Markets are currently pricing in a Fed rate cut in July, with a strong probability of a move in June. Investors now turn to the latest Fed minutes and the Fed-preferred core PCE price index report for further guidance on the US monetary outlook.
Meanwhile, mainland China’s markets are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese traders had driven a speculative surge in precious metals in recent weeks, prompting authorities to curb market risks through various measures. Silver peaked above $120 an ounce in late January before falling to around $64 earlier this month as sentiment reversed.
Gold April
Technical View: $4996. Weekly chart shows a strong underlying uptrend with price holding well above the short-term moving averages and momentum expanding positively. The recent pullback appears corrective, with support seen near $4886/4878; holding above this zone keeps the broader structure intact for a move towards $5460. A decisive break below $4765 will be the first sign of deeper corrective pressure.
-
ShowBuzz2 hours agoIndia International Bullion Summit 2026
-
National News4 days agoIIBS-11: Navigating the ‘New Gold Rush’ in a fragmenting global economy
-
International News4 days agoOroarezzo 2026, with Italian Exhibition Group, Manufacturing Explores New Markets
-
GlamBuzz8 hours ago#ViRosh Ki Shaadi: Rashmika Mandanna & Vijay Deverakonda Celebrate Love with Temple Gold & Timeless Tradition
JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.