JB Insights
WGC REPORT: India gold market update: Seasonal strength
Highlights
- Gold prices soften from record highs yet remain supported
- Domestic prices slide back into discount
- Gold demand, led by investment buying, strengthened during the festive period, but softened thereafter
- Gold ETFs continue strong momentum in October with record inflows and new investors
- Gold imports soar in October, despite the price rally
Looking ahead
- The busy wedding season over the coming months (November–March), with a high number of anticipated weddings, is expected to support jewellery demand.
- Investment interest in gold is likely to persist amid broadly bullish sentiment around gold.
Prices retreat from peak, but maintain firm trend
International gold price1 recorded a sharp rally in October, hitting its 50th record high of the year during the month. Although price eased by about 7% from the peak, it still ended October 5% higher at US$4,011.5/oz. The momentum carried into November, with price up nearly 3% m-t-d as of 19 November. This sustained performance has lifted gold’s y-t-d gains to 58%.
Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests that recent movements in international gold prices have been driven by geopolitical risk, higher implied volatility, a stronger US dollar, as well as momentum and evolving interest-rate expectations.
Domestic gold prices have largely tracked the international trend but have delivered even stronger returns, recording 63% y-t-d growth. The higher domestic gains are attributed to the 3.3% depreciation of the Indian rupee. Domestic gold prices, which had mostly traded at par with, or at a premium to, the international price over the past two months, shifted to a discount following the peak festive demand period (Chart 2), with the m-t-d2 discount averaging US$18/oz.
Festive demand shines, tapers after
Festive demand around Diwali and Dhanteras3 – India’s peak gold-buying occasions – was reportedly strong despite record-high prices, according to feedback from industry stakeholders. Market participants consistently highlighted that the strength was driven primarily by investment-oriented buying, particularly bars and coins, with some noting volume nearly doubling from a year ago. E-commerce platforms also saw solid sales,4 and digital gold purchases rose too. Unified Payments Interface (UPI) data shows digital gold purchases increasing 62% m/m to INR22bn (US$259mn) in October.5 In tonnage terms, the volume rose 45% m/m to 1.8t.
Jewellery sales also held up well during the festive period, with retailers reporting healthy sales across both single-store and large multi-store formats, the latter benefitting from brand trust and promotional initiatives. Although jewellery volumes were softer due to elevated prices, the overall value of sales remained healthy, reportedly up by around a quarter y/y for many, reflecting resilient festive buying sentiment.
Post-Diwali, demand has reportedly softened. Industry feedback suggests market activity in November has been subdued, despite the onset of the wedding season. Jewellery buying is largely wedding-driven, while investment demand persists. Supply of old gold into the market has reportedly moderated. Trade participants attribute this to consumers having exhausted surplus gold for immediate needs and now choosing to hold onto jewellery in expectation of further price gains. Jewellers remain cautiously optimistic that the ongoing wedding season (November–March) will boost jewellery sales, given the expected large number of weddings.
ETFs: persistent strong inflows
October marked the sixth consecutive month of strong inflows into Indian gold ETFs, emphasising the growing appeal of gold as an investment asset in various forms.
Net inflows for the month were INR77bn (US$876mn), a modest 8% decline from the previous month, largely in line with our estimates.7 Despite this moderation, the figure remained significantly higher than the y-t-d average of INR28bn (US$315mn). The dip was primarily due to a sharp rise in redemptions, which hit a record INR21bn (US$244mn). This surge in redemptions was likely driven by profit-taking following the rally in gold prices. Gross inflows for the month, however, set a record at INR99bn (US$11bn). The exceptional rise in gold prices likely drew investor attention, contributing to the strong inflows, while ongoing safe-haven demand further reinforced this trend. Net inflows have continued into November, reaching INR24bn (US$269mn) during the first 17 days of the month.8
The first 10 months of 2025 have been particularly strong for gold ETFs, with cumulative inflows totalling INR276bn (US$3.1bn) – the highest annual inflows on record. This surpasses the total inflows from March 2020 to December 2024. This unprecedented demand has propelled the assets of these funds to historic levels. As per AMFI data, as of end October, the assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs climbed to a record INR1,021bn (US$11.5bn) and gold holdings rose to 83.5t,9 nearly a third of which were added in 2025 alone.
The growing interest in gold ETFs was further evidenced by the increase in new investors. In October, a record 911,000 new accounts (folios) were added, bringing the total number of folios to 9.57mn, reflecting a 49% increase y-t-d.
In addition to the strong performance of existing gold ETFs, the market saw the launch of a new gold ETF in October,10 bringing the total number of gold ETFs in India to 23.
Imports surge to new peak in October despite price rally
Gold imports registered a sharp surge in October, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in both value and volume terms. Notably, the increase occurred despite domestic gold prices touching record highs – rising 60% y/y and 11% m/m11 – indicating resilient domestic demand. In value terms, imports climbed to US$14.7bn, the highest on record, translating into a ~200% y/y and 53% m/m increase. Import volumes also rose substantially, with inflows estimated at 137–142t, compared with 102t in September and 61t a year earlier. The October surge was largely driven by seasonal factors, i.e. the Diwali festivities and the onset of the wedding season.
On a y-t-d basis, gold imports have totalled US$51bn, an increase of 16% y/y. In contrast, the import volumes, estimated at around 559t, are down 12% from a year ago, reflecting the impact of elevated gold prices.
JB Insights
AKSHAYA TRITIYA 2026 – The Focus Now Is On Buying With Clarity, Purpose, Value and Personal Relevance
OVERVIEW
As Akshaya Tritiya 2026 approaches, coinciding with India’s peak wedding season, the jewellery and bullion sector is gearing up for robust demand. Market sentiment is distinctly positive, underpinned by gold’s safe-haven appeal, evolving consumer preferences, and strategic industry initiatives expected to deliver healthy growth across key markets.
While the traditional appeal of gold and diamonds remains a powerful driver, a clear transformation in consumer behaviour is underway. Buyers are increasingly seeking lightweight designs, personalized storytelling pieces, and value-conscious exchange programmes. Despite elevated gold prices and external geopolitical uncertainties, purchase intent has remained consistently strong. Silver demand has also gained significant momentum, driven by its affordability and investment value potential.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT & BEHAVIOUR
The modern jewellery and bullion buyer is more discerning than ever. Key behavioural trends this season include a growing preference for lightweight designs, personalized pieces, diamond-studded options, and value-conscious exchanges through old gold programmes. Interest in digital gold and silver is also rising, reflecting evolving investment preferences.
— Darshan Chauhan, Wholetime Director, Sky Gold and Diamonds Ltd
“Consumer sentiment this Akshaya Tritiya carries a quiet confidence — measured, yet deeply rooted in tradition. The occasion continues to transcend transaction; it remains a moment of belief, of beginnings, and of considered indulgence.”
Price volatility has prompted consumers to be more strategic, using gold exchange programmes and rate protection schemes to optimize value. Emotional resonance — jewellery that tells a story or marks a milestone — is becoming a primary purchase motivator.
— Eshwar Surana, MD, Raj Diamonds
“Today’s consumers are increasingly drawn to pieces that go beyond tradition, reflecting individuality and enduring value. We are also increasingly seeing a preference for larger diamonds with an excellent cut grade that are masterfully crafted for maximum sparkle and brilliance.”
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & DEMAND DRIVERS
Gold’s Enduring Cultural Significance
Gold continues to be a mandatory purchase for millions of Indian households during Akshaya Tritiya, reinforced by its deep cultural symbolism as a harbinger of prosperity and good fortune. Its safe-haven appeal amidst global economic uncertainties further bolsters demand this season.
— Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC
“Gold is a mandatory purchase for many households during this period, and its safe haven appeal amidst economic uncertainties will further bolster demand. However, jewellers and consumers should remain cautious of potential short-term volatility in gold prices, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”
Silver’s Rising Momentum
Silver demand has gained remarkable traction this season, driven by both its affordability relative to gold and its growing recognition as a high-beta investment opportunity. The convergence of industrial and investment demand is positioning silver as a compelling parallel play alongside gold.
— Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd | National President, IBJA | Chairman, JITO
“Gold and silver are no longer just safe-haven assets — they are the market’s clearest signal of global uncertainty. With the US-Iran ceasefire still fragile, FOMC minutes flagging inflation risks, and central banks continuing to accumulate gold at a record pace, the structural bull case remains firmly intact. Every meaningful dip remains a buying opportunity, not a reason to exit.”
Wedding Season Synergy
The overlap of Akshaya Tritiya with the auspicious wedding season creates a powerful demand multiplier. Bridal trousseau purchases, gift sets, and investment jewellery all see significant upticks. This synergy has encouraged leading jewellers to extend store hours and launch dedicated bridal collections.
— Eshwar Surana, MD, Raj Diamonds
“We are expecting good traction in high-value diamond-studded and wedding jewellery, as there are a lot of weddings planned this summer. The demand for quality diamonds has already been very strong in the run-up to Akshaya Tritiya.”
Transparency & Innovation as Growth Levers
Industry associations such as the GJC are placing renewed emphasis on consumer confidence through transparency initiatives, innovative design, and digital accessibility. These efforts are expected to broaden the addressable market and attract younger, first-time buyers.
— Avinash Gupta, Vice Chairman, GJC
“At GJC, our focus remains on empowering jewellers and enhancing consumer confidence through transparency, innovation, and exceptional designs, thereby driving growth in the jewellery sector.”
LEADING BRAND STRATEGIES
PNG Jewellers — Targeting 25–30% Growth in Central India
PNG Jewellers has launched aggressive campaigns across Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. The brand is projecting a buying cycle well beyond the festive day itself, supported by:
◆ Attractive benefits on the old gold exchange
◆ Reduced making charges for the season
◆ Exclusive new collections curated for Akshaya Tritiya
◆ Extended store hours to maximize footfall and conversions
— Dr. Saurabh Gadgil, CMD, PNG Jewellers
“This Akshaya Tritiya, we are anticipating a strong and extended buying cycle, as the festival coincides with the wedding season. We are projecting healthy traction, with a targeted growth of 25% to 30% over last year, particularly in Central Indian markets such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.”
KISNA Diamond and Gold Jewellery — Gold Rate Protection Plan
For KISNA, Akshaya Tritiya is a cornerstone event contributing 15–18% of annual revenue. Recognizing heightened consumer sensitivity to gold price movements, the brand has introduced the innovative Gold Rate Protection Plan:
◆ Protects buyers against price increases post-purchase
◆ Expected to contribute approximately 25% of the monthly business
◆ Addresses growing demand for lightweight and diamond-studded pieces
◆ Actively promotes old gold exchange as a value-add mechanism
— Parag Shah, CEO, KISNA Diamond and Gold Jewellery
“This year, we are seeing a more value-conscious consumer, with gold price movements shaping purchase behaviour in the lead-up to the festival. We have introduced the Gold Rate Protection Plan as a strategic intervention to provide greater confidence and flexibility in the purchase journey.”
Raj Diamonds — Premium Bridal Collections
Raj Diamonds is focused on the premium end of the market with its signature high jewellery collections — Ruby Splendour and Ancient Splendour — designed for the discerning bridal buyer who values intrinsic quality alongside cultural significance.
◆ Ruby Splendour and Ancient Splendour signature collections
◆ Larger diamonds with excellent cut grade for maximum brilliance
◆ Crafted for consumers seeking individuality and enduring value
◆ Estimated 20–25% growth in value terms over the last year
BULLION MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Beyond jewellery, the bullion market is seeing parallel momentum driven by institutional and retail investment demand. The convergence of macro uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and silver’s industrial demand profile is creating a compelling case for both gold and silver this Akshaya Tritiya season.
— Narayan Debnath, MD, RadhaKrishna Jewellery Retail Pvt Ltd
“Market sentiment this Akshaya Tritiya is distinctly positive, supported by the continued rise in gold prices and its safe-haven appeal. There is also a clear uptick in interest towards digital gold and silver, reflecting evolving investment preferences. Silver demand has gained significant momentum this season, driven by its affordability and value potential.”
RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONSIDERATIONS
While the overall outlook is optimistic, industry leaders have flagged several considerations that jewellers and consumers should be mindful of:
◆ Short-term gold price volatility linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East
◆ Elevated base gold prices may compress margins if demand softens unexpectedly
◆ Shifting consumer preferences require continuous product innovation and design investment
◆ Growing expectations around transparency and certification demand robust supply chain practices
— Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC
“Jewellers and consumers should remain cautious of potential short-term volatility in gold prices, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”
CONCLUSION
India’s jewellery and bullion industry enters Akshaya Tritiya 2026 with well-founded confidence. A combination of enduring cultural demand, strategic promotional campaigns, consumer-friendly financial schemes, and an industry-wide pivot towards transparency and personalization is set to deliver robust growth.
The clearest signal from this season is that the consumer of 2025 buys with intention. Whether it is a lightweight everyday piece, a bridal set, a premium diamond investment, or a silver bullion coin, the purchase carries meaning — and the industry is rising to meet that expectation with clarity, value, and variety.
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