JB Insights
Gold, silver retreat as volatility overrides dovish signals
By Gnanasekar Thiagarajan
Gold and silver ended lower on the week despite sharp intraday rebounds, with price action reflecting continued volatility and fragile positioning rather than a sustained recovery. In the absence of a definitive macro catalyst, a broad-based decline across equities and cryptocurrencies prompted investors to raise liquidity, briefly dragging gold below the key $5,000 per ounce threshold. Non-yielding assets came under pressure as earlier stronger-than-expected US employment data pushed expectations for the first Federal Reserve rate cut further into midyear, reducing the appeal of bullion. Sentiment shifted, however, after inflation data showed annual CPI slowing to 2.4% and core inflation easing to 2.5%, reviving dovish expectations. The softer inflation print weighed on Treasury yields and pressured the dollar, allowing gold to recover toward the $4,990 region. Silver experienced similar turbulence, sliding sharply during the liquidation phase before rebounding above $76 per ounce, though it remained on track for another weekly decline.
Gnanasekar Thiagarajan
Introduction:
Gold finished the period under pressure despite sharp rebounds, with price action dominated by cross-asset volatility and shifting rate expectations. After initially recovering more than 2% on softer-than-expected US inflation, bullion briefly pushed back toward the $5,000–$5,020 region as annual CPI slowed to 2.4% and core inflation eased to 2.5%, reinforcing expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Lower yields and a softer dollar provided near-term relief, reviving the structural appeal of non-yielding assets.
However, gains proved fragile as the dollar rebounded and gold slipped back below $5,020, underscoring hesitation around the psychological $5,000 threshold. Earlier strength in US labor data had already delayed expectations for the first rate cut toward midyear, capping upside momentum. Markets now await further guidance from FOMC minutes, GDP data and the core PCE print, while geopolitical developments — including renewed US-Iran nuclear talks and broader Middle East tensions — continue to shape safe-haven flows.
Silver tracked gold’s volatility but continued to underperform structurally, remaining in a corrective phase after January’s extreme surge. The metal rebounded nearly 3% on softer inflation data and firmer rate-cut expectations, briefly moving back above $76 per ounce, but gains faded as liquidity stayed thin amid China holidays and broader risk sentiment remained fragile. Heavy speculative positioning left silver exposed to sharp reversals, and prices are still far below late-January highs above $120 after the collapse toward the mid-$60s. While lower yields and debasement concerns offer underlying support, near-term trade points to consolidation rather than a swift return to the prior rally.
Gold and Silver:
Gold fell below $5,020 per ounce on Monday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, following weaker-than-expected US CPI data. The soft inflation print reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with markets now pricing in slightly more than two reductions. Investors are awaiting the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the US GDP advance estimate, and PCE inflation data for further clues on the timing of the next rate cut. On the geopolitical front, traders are monitoring nuclear talks between the US and Iran, as well as US-led negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, both scheduled to resume on Tuesday. Developments in these areas could influence risk sentiment and safe-haven demand. Despite recent volatility, the precious metal remained supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies.
Silver March
Silver fell more than 1% toward $76 per ounce on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session, although trading volumes were subdued due to market holidays in the US, China and other countries. On Friday, the metal had jumped nearly 3% after soft US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. Markets are currently pricing in a Fed rate cut in July, with a strong probability of a move in June. Investors now turn to the latest Fed minutes and the Fed-preferred core PCE price index report for further guidance on the US monetary outlook.
Meanwhile, mainland China’s markets are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese traders had driven a speculative surge in precious metals in recent weeks, prompting authorities to curb market risks through various measures. Silver peaked above $120 an ounce in late January before falling to around $64 earlier this month as sentiment reversed.
Gold April
Technical View: $4996. Weekly chart shows a strong underlying uptrend with price holding well above the short-term moving averages and momentum expanding positively. The recent pullback appears corrective, with support seen near $4886/4878; holding above this zone keeps the broader structure intact for a move towards $5460. A decisive break below $4765 will be the first sign of deeper corrective pressure.
JB Insights
AKSHAYA TRITIYA 2026 – The Focus Now Is On Buying With Clarity, Purpose, Value and Personal Relevance
OVERVIEW
As Akshaya Tritiya 2026 approaches, coinciding with India’s peak wedding season, the jewellery and bullion sector is gearing up for robust demand. Market sentiment is distinctly positive, underpinned by gold’s safe-haven appeal, evolving consumer preferences, and strategic industry initiatives expected to deliver healthy growth across key markets.
While the traditional appeal of gold and diamonds remains a powerful driver, a clear transformation in consumer behaviour is underway. Buyers are increasingly seeking lightweight designs, personalized storytelling pieces, and value-conscious exchange programmes. Despite elevated gold prices and external geopolitical uncertainties, purchase intent has remained consistently strong. Silver demand has also gained significant momentum, driven by its affordability and investment value potential.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT & BEHAVIOUR
The modern jewellery and bullion buyer is more discerning than ever. Key behavioural trends this season include a growing preference for lightweight designs, personalized pieces, diamond-studded options, and value-conscious exchanges through old gold programmes. Interest in digital gold and silver is also rising, reflecting evolving investment preferences.
— Darshan Chauhan, Wholetime Director, Sky Gold and Diamonds Ltd
“Consumer sentiment this Akshaya Tritiya carries a quiet confidence — measured, yet deeply rooted in tradition. The occasion continues to transcend transaction; it remains a moment of belief, of beginnings, and of considered indulgence.”
Price volatility has prompted consumers to be more strategic, using gold exchange programmes and rate protection schemes to optimize value. Emotional resonance — jewellery that tells a story or marks a milestone — is becoming a primary purchase motivator.
— Eshwar Surana, MD, Raj Diamonds
“Today’s consumers are increasingly drawn to pieces that go beyond tradition, reflecting individuality and enduring value. We are also increasingly seeing a preference for larger diamonds with an excellent cut grade that are masterfully crafted for maximum sparkle and brilliance.”
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & DEMAND DRIVERS
Gold’s Enduring Cultural Significance
Gold continues to be a mandatory purchase for millions of Indian households during Akshaya Tritiya, reinforced by its deep cultural symbolism as a harbinger of prosperity and good fortune. Its safe-haven appeal amidst global economic uncertainties further bolsters demand this season.
— Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC
“Gold is a mandatory purchase for many households during this period, and its safe haven appeal amidst economic uncertainties will further bolster demand. However, jewellers and consumers should remain cautious of potential short-term volatility in gold prices, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”
Silver’s Rising Momentum
Silver demand has gained remarkable traction this season, driven by both its affordability relative to gold and its growing recognition as a high-beta investment opportunity. The convergence of industrial and investment demand is positioning silver as a compelling parallel play alongside gold.
— Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd | National President, IBJA | Chairman, JITO
“Gold and silver are no longer just safe-haven assets — they are the market’s clearest signal of global uncertainty. With the US-Iran ceasefire still fragile, FOMC minutes flagging inflation risks, and central banks continuing to accumulate gold at a record pace, the structural bull case remains firmly intact. Every meaningful dip remains a buying opportunity, not a reason to exit.”
Wedding Season Synergy
The overlap of Akshaya Tritiya with the auspicious wedding season creates a powerful demand multiplier. Bridal trousseau purchases, gift sets, and investment jewellery all see significant upticks. This synergy has encouraged leading jewellers to extend store hours and launch dedicated bridal collections.
— Eshwar Surana, MD, Raj Diamonds
“We are expecting good traction in high-value diamond-studded and wedding jewellery, as there are a lot of weddings planned this summer. The demand for quality diamonds has already been very strong in the run-up to Akshaya Tritiya.”
Transparency & Innovation as Growth Levers
Industry associations such as the GJC are placing renewed emphasis on consumer confidence through transparency initiatives, innovative design, and digital accessibility. These efforts are expected to broaden the addressable market and attract younger, first-time buyers.
— Avinash Gupta, Vice Chairman, GJC
“At GJC, our focus remains on empowering jewellers and enhancing consumer confidence through transparency, innovation, and exceptional designs, thereby driving growth in the jewellery sector.”
LEADING BRAND STRATEGIES
PNG Jewellers — Targeting 25–30% Growth in Central India
PNG Jewellers has launched aggressive campaigns across Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. The brand is projecting a buying cycle well beyond the festive day itself, supported by:
◆ Attractive benefits on the old gold exchange
◆ Reduced making charges for the season
◆ Exclusive new collections curated for Akshaya Tritiya
◆ Extended store hours to maximize footfall and conversions
— Dr. Saurabh Gadgil, CMD, PNG Jewellers
“This Akshaya Tritiya, we are anticipating a strong and extended buying cycle, as the festival coincides with the wedding season. We are projecting healthy traction, with a targeted growth of 25% to 30% over last year, particularly in Central Indian markets such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.”
KISNA Diamond and Gold Jewellery — Gold Rate Protection Plan
For KISNA, Akshaya Tritiya is a cornerstone event contributing 15–18% of annual revenue. Recognizing heightened consumer sensitivity to gold price movements, the brand has introduced the innovative Gold Rate Protection Plan:
◆ Protects buyers against price increases post-purchase
◆ Expected to contribute approximately 25% of the monthly business
◆ Addresses growing demand for lightweight and diamond-studded pieces
◆ Actively promotes old gold exchange as a value-add mechanism
— Parag Shah, CEO, KISNA Diamond and Gold Jewellery
“This year, we are seeing a more value-conscious consumer, with gold price movements shaping purchase behaviour in the lead-up to the festival. We have introduced the Gold Rate Protection Plan as a strategic intervention to provide greater confidence and flexibility in the purchase journey.”
Raj Diamonds — Premium Bridal Collections
Raj Diamonds is focused on the premium end of the market with its signature high jewellery collections — Ruby Splendour and Ancient Splendour — designed for the discerning bridal buyer who values intrinsic quality alongside cultural significance.
◆ Ruby Splendour and Ancient Splendour signature collections
◆ Larger diamonds with excellent cut grade for maximum brilliance
◆ Crafted for consumers seeking individuality and enduring value
◆ Estimated 20–25% growth in value terms over the last year
BULLION MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Beyond jewellery, the bullion market is seeing parallel momentum driven by institutional and retail investment demand. The convergence of macro uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and silver’s industrial demand profile is creating a compelling case for both gold and silver this Akshaya Tritiya season.
— Narayan Debnath, MD, RadhaKrishna Jewellery Retail Pvt Ltd
“Market sentiment this Akshaya Tritiya is distinctly positive, supported by the continued rise in gold prices and its safe-haven appeal. There is also a clear uptick in interest towards digital gold and silver, reflecting evolving investment preferences. Silver demand has gained significant momentum this season, driven by its affordability and value potential.”
RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONSIDERATIONS
While the overall outlook is optimistic, industry leaders have flagged several considerations that jewellers and consumers should be mindful of:
◆ Short-term gold price volatility linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East
◆ Elevated base gold prices may compress margins if demand softens unexpectedly
◆ Shifting consumer preferences require continuous product innovation and design investment
◆ Growing expectations around transparency and certification demand robust supply chain practices
— Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC
“Jewellers and consumers should remain cautious of potential short-term volatility in gold prices, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”
CONCLUSION
India’s jewellery and bullion industry enters Akshaya Tritiya 2026 with well-founded confidence. A combination of enduring cultural demand, strategic promotional campaigns, consumer-friendly financial schemes, and an industry-wide pivot towards transparency and personalization is set to deliver robust growth.
The clearest signal from this season is that the consumer of 2025 buys with intention. Whether it is a lightweight everyday piece, a bridal set, a premium diamond investment, or a silver bullion coin, the purchase carries meaning — and the industry is rising to meet that expectation with clarity, value, and variety.
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