News
WGC Gold Market CommentarySnakes and ladders

Gold punches through highs again
Gold finished January on an all-time-high of US$2,812, up 8% on the month, adding another positive start to its strong seasonal record . All-time-highs were logged across the board in major currencies (Table 1).
According to our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), almost all drivers contributed positively including a large rise in the Geopolitical Risk index (GPR), with the only major drag coming from the lagged momentum effect of a strong US dollar in December (Chart 1).
Global gold ETFs secured a US$2.6bn (30t) gain in AUM, driven almost exclusively by strong inflows into European gold ETFs (+US$3.4bn, 39t) – likely aided by a European Central Bank (ECB) cut that took bund yields down quite dramatically over the course of the month. US funds lost US$500mn (6t), Asian funds pared US$320mn (4t) while other ETFs managed small inflows totalling US$51mn (1t).
COMEX managed money net longs added US$64bn (150t) to positions with a large increase in longs and a small cut in shorts.
Snakes and ladders
• China saw evidence of strong start to an auspicious ‘year of the snake’ for gold. Historically, February is positively correlated to January performance, so augurs well
• German elections might be flying under the radar for many given the noise around US tariffs, but the elections could trigger a much more positive growth outlook
• This in turn could support the euro vs. the US dollar in the process. A weaker US dollar is not a consensus view, but unforeseen pressure on it could herald further support for gold.
China’s New Year of the snake kicks off in style It’s Yisi’s year of the snake in 2025, which occurs every 60 years and promises to be an auspicious one. Seasonal strength in local prices was evident in January with an average premium of US$6/oz recorded following several months of discounts
Up the economic ladder
While focus is currently on the impact of President Trump’s first few weeks in office, with tariffs and bluster rocking markets, elections in Germany on 23 February could have far reaching implications too.
Surveys show that the issue German voters care more about than any other, is economic growth (Chart 3, p3).
This means that whoever wins will have to deliver. And promises from all candidate parties have been emphatic about delivering on growth.2
Equity markets appear to have sniffed out the fruits of a change in administration, with the DAX outperforming most major indices over the past two months. But next to be impacted may be bund yields. Despite a softer ECB likely lowering short-end rates, stimulus could steepen the curve and pressure longer-term yields higher reducing the gap between bunds and US Treasuries. This spread tends to lead changes in the US dollar index
So euro strength could add further pressure to an overvalued US dollar, although it might take a bit of time to materialise and will likely not be dramatic.3 With the Bank of
Japan seeing domestic demand matching targets and further rate hikes tabled this year, we believe a slightly anti- consensus call on the dollar shifting down is a possibility.4
And gold’s relationship to the US dollar has been consistently negative over the last few decades, more so than bond yields. Although it’s not been key to gold’s price performance of late, we believe a softer trend should provide a gentle tailwind for gold (Chart 5).
In summary
Markets are currently fixated on the fallout of broad tariffs that the Trump administration has levied. And the knee-jerk reaction from currencies has been a strengthening of the US dollar (DXY). But elections in Germany might be a trigger for a sustained strengthening of the euro vs. the US dollar via a contracting Treasury/bund spread – even after an unwind of the strength from the strong rally since November. Likewise, weakness in the Japanese yen appears less likely. All else being equal, US exceptionalism might find a challenge from these two corners, pressuring the US dollar lower – which given the consistent relationship with gold – can add further support to gold’s incumbent strength.

National News
MSMEs in diamonds, textiles, chemicals to be most hit by US tariffs
The US tariff hike to 50% on Indian goods is set to hit MSMEs hard, especially in textiles, gems & jewellery, seafood, and chemicals. With MSMEs accounting for over 70% share in these sectors, the move will squeeze margins, reduce competitiveness, and impact key clusters such as Tirupur’s RMG hub and Surat’s diamond industry. While gems & jewellery exports worth ~$10 billion face the highest exposure, pharma remains exempt. Experts suggest diversifying exports towards the UK, EU, and other markets to offset the impact.

The imposition of higher tariffs by the US will significantly impact micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which account for as much as ~45% of India’s total exports.
Currently, the US levies an ad valorem duty of 25% on Indian goods. However, it has imposed an additional 25% tariff that will take effect from August 27, bringing the total tariff on Indian products to a substantial 50%. The additional ad valorem, if implemented, will have meaningful impact on certain sectors and remains monitorable.
The textiles, gems and jewellery and seafood industries, which account for ~25% of India’s total exports to the US, are likely to be the most affected. MSMEs have more than 70% share in these sectors and will be hit hard. Another sector likely to face the heat is chemicals, where MSMEs have a 40% share.

Says Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence, “Partial absorption of the increased product prices due to higher tariffs will put pressure on MSMEs, squeeze their already-slim margins and pose a material challenge to their competitiveness. For instance, those into readymade garments (RMG) are expected to lose ground in the US as the tariff increases to 61%, including 50% additional ad valorem duty, compared with peers in Bangladesh and Vietnam tariffed at 31%. The Tirupur cluster, which accounts for over 30% of India’s RMG exports, will be severely impacted as ~30% of its exports are to the US.”
Similarly, in the gems and jewellery sector, MSMEs in Surat, which dominates diamond exports with over 80% share, will feel the tariff shock. As such, diamonds account for over half of the country’s gems and jewellery exports, and the US is a major consumer of Indian diamonds, comprising nearly a third of exports.
To be sure, the tariff hikes come at a particularly challenging time for most of these sectors. For instance, RMG exports have recovered after declining 7% on-year in fiscal 2024 and logged 13% on-year growth in fiscal 2025, albeit on a low base. The gems and jewellery sector has seen exports decline 10%-a-year over the past two fiscals on compound annual growth rate basis.
Some sectors, however, remain unscathed for now. For instance, pharmaceutical products, which comprise 12% share in exports to the US, are currently exempt from tariffs.
Of the five sectors expected to see meaningful impact, gems and jewellery has the highest exposure to the US at ~$10 billion. While we expect export volumes to contract, the impact may not be fully reflected in revenue terms because of a likely runup in gold prices and sustained domestic demand. To further mitigate the impact, India can increase exports to other countries as well as leverage the benefits of the recently concluded trade deal with the UK and a potential deal with the European Union.
BrandBuzz
Limelight Diamonds Strengthens Presence in Bengaluru with Second Store at HSR Layout
India’s largest lab grown diamond jewellery brand continues its expansion in Karnataka to meet growing demand for sustainable luxury

Limelight Diamonds, India’s largest lab grown diamond jewellery brand, has launched its second store in Bengaluru, reinforcing its presence in Karnataka’s dynamic and style-driven market. Following the success of its first store in the Jayanagar city, the new outlet is located at HSR Layout, a prime lifestyle destination. The launch was led by Karam Chawla, Director, Limelight Diamonds, Tapesh Bhargava, Regional Partner, and the Limelight leadership team.
The new store features Limelight’s signature lab grown diamond jewellery collections from solitaire necklaces, bracelets, rings, and earrings to men’s jewellery, all crafted with advanced technology and designed to embody modern elegance with a strong commitment to sustainability. Its interiors bring together modest luxury, minimalism, and timeless design, offering customers an immersive and elevated shopping experience.
To mark the occasion, Limelight announced an exclusive opening offer: 15% off on diamond value, 15% off on making charges, and a FREE gold coin on purchases above ₹1 lakh, valid until 31st August 2025.
“At Limelight, every new store is not just an expansion, but a step towards shaping the future of conscious diamond shopping in India,” said Pooja Sheth Madhavan, Founder & MD, Limelight Diamonds. “Karnataka has emerged as a key market for sustainable luxury, with Bengaluru leading this evolution. Our second store in the city, at HSR Layout, is designed to meet the growing demand from customers who value style, craftsmanship, and responsibility in equal measure.”


“Bengaluru’s evolving tastes and rising demand for sustainable luxury have been a key driver of our growth,” said Karam Chawla, Director, Limelight Diamonds. “With our new store in HSR Layout, we’re deepening our presence in the city, making it easier for customers in this part of Bengaluru to explore our signature solitaire collections, experience personalised customisation, and enjoy a transparent, trustworthy buying journey.”
Limelight’s offerings go beyond exquisite designs, with services like design customisation, lifetime buyback, 100% exchange guarantee, and value-protected jewellery insurance, ensuring transparency, trust, and long-term value with every purchase.
The brand continues to grow rapidly across India, now present in 45+ cities with 50+ exclusive brand outlets and 40+ shop-in-shops, spanning locations such as Mumbai, Delhi, Jaipur, Varanasi, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Vadodara, Rajkot, and many more.
BrandBuzz
Aishwarya Rajesh unveils Fedha By Challani outlet at OMR – Thoraipakkam, Chennai
Actress Aishwarya Rajesh inaugurated the new Fedha by Challani showroom at OMR–Thoraipakkam, Chennai, in the presence of Jayantilal Challani, Chairman, and Goutham Challani, Director. Offering an exquisite range of 925 silver jewellery—from statement chokers and jhumkas to men’s collections—the brand blends fine craftsmanship with modern sophistication, making silver the chic, versatile, and budget-friendly choice for today’s fashion-conscious buyers.

Actress Aishwarya Rajesh unveiled Fedha By Challani showroom at OMR – Thoraipakkam, (Opp: AKDR Golf Village), Chennai. Representing Challani Group of Companies were Jayantilal Challani, Chairman and Goutham Challani, Director.
Fedha by Challani offers 925 Silver Jewellery. It is where fine craftsmanship meets tradition and modern sophistication. At Fedha By Challani unlock the enchantment of a lifetime and embrace the allure of finest silver jewellery. The lavish edition of jewellery includes exquisite collections of nonchalance necklaces, jaw dropping jhumkas, chokers, rings, ear rings, bracelets, bangles, men’s collection and more. Each silver creation is meticulously crafted with flawless artistry, making every piece truly special.
With a lustrous and modern shine, designer silver jewelry is quickly becoming the top choice for new-age fashion. From delicate rings to statement necklaces, it’s the perfect way to add a touch of effortless style to any outfit.Why the buzz? It’s chic, versatile, and, most importantly, budget-friendly. You can find a huge variety of stunning pieces without breaking the bank. Plus, silver is gentle on the skin, making it a comfortable and safe choice for everyday wear.
Whether you’re treating yourself or searching for the perfect gift, a piece of silver jewellery is a timeless treasure. It’s the perfect way to make any occasion—from a special anniversary to a simple “just because” moment—feel truly momentous. Fedha by Challani offers exquisite silver jewellery for every occasion!
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