International News
WGC Gold ETF Commentary : US leads multiyear record inflows
February in review
Global physically-backed gold ETFs1 saw significant inflows in February totaling US$9.4bn, the strongest since March 2022. North American flows flipped positive following two consecutive monthly outflows, recording one of its strongest months on record. Asian demand was also strong while European inflows narrowed. We have now seen three consecutive months of strong global inflows which, combined an upward trending gold price, have lifted total assets under management (AUM) to US$306bn, another month-end peak. Meanwhile, holdings rose to 3,353t, the highest month-end level since July 2023.
Highlights
- Global gold ETFs saw continued inflows during February as holdings across all regions grew.
- The third consecutive monthly inflows lifted global gold ETFs’ total AUM and collective holdings by 4.1% and 3.1% respectively in the month.
- Global gold trading volumes kept rising: OTC markets led the charge.
Regional overview
North American demand surged in February, adding US$6.8bn. This was the largest single month inflow for the region since July 2020 and the strongest February ever. As physical shipments into COMEX vaults from London and other markets made headlines, the positive gold market momentum also benefited North American gold ETFs.
But there were other important contributors. For instance, US Treasury rates trended down with various economic signals flashing red.3 Lower yields, alongside a weaker dollar, boded well for the gold price during most of the month – in fact, it reached nine new record highs in February before moving lower in the latter half.4 We believe reduced opportunity costs and a record-shattering gold price were key in attracting inflows. Moreover, a pullback in equity markets and fears of stagflation were also likely positive drivers of demand. Lastly, we have observed significant inflows triggered by gold ETFs’ options expiry, signalling further bullish sentiment from investors.
While we would not be surprised to see a slowdown in momentum, ongoing recession concerns and policy uncertainties – geopolitical and economic – will likely continue to provide a supportive floor for demand.
Gold trading volumes rise Trading activities across global gold markets increased in February, ending the month at roughly US$300bn/day on average. OTC trading, dominated by the LBMA, rose further, as dealers moved gold in response to the US tariff concerns. Gold futures trading volumes at COMEX were down while Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a sizable increase, given the strong local gold price performance. Additionally, gold ETF trading activities also rose, led by North America.
International News
Geopolitical Ceasefire and Fed Signals Shape Gold and Silver Outlook AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is consolidating around $4750 and Silver around $78, recouping some losses from the previous session after President Trump’s unilateral announcement extending the ceasefire with Iran. However, a second round of peace talks has broken down. It remains unclear whether Iran or U.S. ally Israel will formally accept the extended ceasefire, which entered its third week, introducing continued uncertainty into safe-haven demand.
- Geopolitical Developments – Trump indicated further military action would be paused pending a new Iranian proposal and the completion of negotiations. Separately, Vice President JD Vance scrapped a scheduled visit to Islamabad after Iran conveyed through Pakistan its refusal to participate in the proposed talks. Iran additionally maintained that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as long as the U.S. Navy continues intercepting vessels in the region, sustaining a key supply-chain risk factor.
- Macro-economic Signals – Precious metal price action continues to be driven primarily by ceasefire-related headlines and broader liquidity conditions. The ceasefire extension has led markets to interpret the situation as a partial de-escalation, reducing immediate crisis premiums. Additional downward pressure on metals emerged from the Senate confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, whose commitment to institutional independence signaled a potentially hawkish policy posture going forward.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4650 (~ Rs 151,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) over the past few days. Either a breakout or breakdown will give a 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $76 (~ Rs 242,500) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) over the past few days. Either a breakout or breakdown from this band will give a 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 240,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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