International News
Valentine’s Day jewelry spending in US to hit new high – NRF
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US shoppers will buy $6.5 billion worth of jewelry for Valentine’s Day, setting a new record for the segment, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). That will make it the biggest category for consumer spending by value, ahead of an evening out, flowers, candy and greeting cards, the NRF said Thursday. That figure is 2% higher than the $6.4 million consumers were set to spend on jewelry for the holiday a year ago.
More than a third of consumers plan to shop online for gifts leading up to Valentine’s Day, the top destination, according to new data from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.The survey asked 8,020 adult consumers in the first week of January about their Valentine’s Day shopping plans, the authors said. They found that consumers plan to spend an average of $188.81 on the holiday. That’s up slightly from $185.81 in 2024, the NRF noted.
Overall outlay on gifts for loved ones will come to $27.5 billion, the NRF forecast — up 7% from the $25.8 billion estimate it released before Valentine’s Day last year, and the highest figure since the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics began conducting their annual survey in 2004. The last record for spending was in 2020.
More than half of US consumers said they would celebrate the holiday in 2025, the NRF noted. Of those looking to spend, the average consumer will lay out $189, up 2% from last year and on par with 2020’s pre-pandemic level. The rise is the result of increased spending on significant others, which will reach a record $14.6 billion, up 3% year on year. Total outlay on gifts for family members is set to grow 7% to $4.3 billion.
Popular choices for gift givers included candy, which 56% of respondents chose, while flowers and greeting cards each attracted a 40% share. More than a third said they would spend on an evening out, while some 22% opted for jewelry as their number-one purchase for a loved one. The survey found that 38% of all shoppers were set to make their purchases online, while 34% aimed to buy from department stores, 29% from discount shops, and 18% at both florists and specialty shops.
International News
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Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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