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Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs creates uncertainty, drives surge in gold prices

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Gold price rebounds toward record highs of $3,246 after the previous pullback.  Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs creates uncertainty, underpinning Gold’s safe-haven appeal.Gold remains poised for a fresh leg higher on bullish technical setup on the daily chart.Gold price is bouncing back toward the record highs of $3,246 set on Monday as buyers fight back control despite a sense of calm across the financial markets early Tuesday.

This resurgence comes despite relative calm in broader financial markets, and it underscores the enduring appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset amid political and economic turbulence. Central to this dynamic is the evolving and often erratic trade policy rhetoric emanating from the United States, particularly from former President Donald Trump. As markets struggle to interpret shifting stances on tariffs and brace for consequential economic data, gold appears poised to continue its upward trajectory, supported by both technical and fundamental factors.

The reemergence of gold’s bullish momentum occurs against a backdrop of a moderating U.S. bond market. Last week’s surge in Treasury yields—a swift 50 basis point increase—has partially reversed, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling by approximately 10 basis points. This stabilization has provided a brief respite for investors, many of whom are digesting not only earnings reports from major U.S. corporations but also the ongoing ambiguity surrounding American trade policy.

Trump’s recent comments on adjusting the 25% tariffs on auto and auto parts imports from key partners such as Mexico and Canada have injected fresh uncertainty into the market. His administration’s exemptions for certain technology products, like smartphones and laptops, only added complexity, especially as these items remain subject to less severe 20% tariffs rather than the previously discussed 145% rate. Trump’s mention of impending tariff decisions on semiconductors further adds to the volatility.

Such unpredictability has clear implications for investor sentiment, which in turn sustains the allure of gold. As a non-yielding asset traditionally viewed as a hedge against economic instability, gold thrives during periods when policy inconsistency undermines market confidence. Moreover, the anticipation of further dovish shifts by the Federal Reserve amplifies this dynamic. Remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller this week highlighted the economic strain caused by tariff policies, suggesting that rate cuts might be necessary even in the face of persistent inflation. While some voices, like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, urge a wait-and-see approach, markets are pricing in substantial rate reductions—approximately 85 basis points by year’s end—with high confidence that rates will remain unchanged at the Fed’s next meeting in May.

Beyond the U.S., global factors are also reinforcing the upward pressure on gold prices. Chinese investors have significantly increased their holdings in physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in April, a trend confirmed by the World Gold Council. This inflow reflects both domestic economic concerns and a broader global appetite for risk hedging, particularly as China prepares to release its first-quarter GDP data. Monday’s announcement from China Customs, revealing a 12.4% year-over-year surge in exports for March, underscores the urgency with which Chinese exporters have responded to looming U.S. tariff hikes.

As gold continues its climb, technical indicators on the daily chart support the potential for further gains. Yet, this ascent remains contingent on several evolving narratives: Trump’s tariff proclamations, the Fed’s policy responses, and the tone of incoming macroeconomic data from China and beyond. In this complex and fluid environment, gold retains its timeless luster—not merely as a commodity, but as a barometer of global uncertainty.

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Geopolitical Flashpoints and Macro Crosswinds Keep Bullion Markets In Check AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Gold Increasingly Rivaling US Treasuries As A Preferred Reserve Asset For Central Banks Globally, For The First Time In Decades

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Gold prices slipped below $4,700 and silver below $80, retracing a portion of last week’s gains after President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s diplomatic response as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” keeping inflationary concerns elevated. Tehran had proposed relocating part of its highly enriched uranium stockpile to a third country while refusing to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure — a position Washington found insufficient.

Geopolitical conditions deteriorated further over the weekend, with renewed cross-border attacks threatening to unravel the fragile ceasefire established in early April. US Central Command confirmed that American forces intercepted Iranian strikes and conducted defensive operations, while guided missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz. The US subsequently reported sinking several Iranian vessels in the strait on Monday, as Iran escalated with fresh missile and drone strikes against the UAE. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, sustaining elevated energy prices and amplifying inflation risk globally.

Persistent inflationary pressure has reinforced expectations that central banks may tighten policy further — a headwind that typically weighs on precious metals. The April NFP report, released May 8, delivered a significant upside surprise: 177,000 jobs added against a consensus of 65,000, though below March’s 185,000, signaling a gradual cooling trajectory. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Rate cut expectations have shifted to late 2027 or early 2028, limiting dollar weakness and capping gold’s near-term upside.

On the USDINR front, currency markets were highly volatile, driven by crude oil dynamics. The rupee depreciated to record lows near 95.2 per dollar on May 7 following a 6% crude oil surge after Iran’s military escalation and a strike on a UAE oil facility. The move constrained capital inflows and triggered a surge in importer hedging activity. India’s physical gold demand has weakened sharply. Imports declined from approximately 100 tonnes in January to 65–66 tonnes in February, fell further to 20–22 tonnes in March, and are estimated at just 15 tonnes in April — among the lowest monthly readings in decades outside the Covid period.

Sentiment last week reflected a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and the hawkish overlay from elevated energy prices. Analytically, the most notable shift in the pre-NFP environment is a structural repricing of gold: the metal has transitioned from a data-reactive asset to one driven by fiscal sustainability, monetary policy credibility, and sovereign reserve allocation. While Fed hawkishness remains a short-term constraint, 2026 has been defined by what analysts are calling “The Great Bullion Pivot” — gold increasingly rivaling US Treasuries as a preferred reserve asset for central banks globally, for the first time in decades.

Gold has been trading within a $4,500–$4,750 range (approximately ₹148K–₹154K). Having tested the upper boundary last week, profit-booking pressure may push prices back toward the lower end this week. Silver has been ranging between $71–$82 (approximately ₹235K–₹265K), and similarly, having touched the top of its range, a reversion toward support levels is likely in the near term.

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