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Silver prices to rise beyond $40/oz: Citigroup

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Citigroup analysts expect silver prices to rise beyond $40 per ounce in the coming months as physical supplies tighten and investment demand grows. Analysts at Citigroup increased their three-month silver price forecast from $38 to $40 in a report recently. The gold-silver ratio has been flashing a breakout signal in silver prices.

Silver currently trades at $38, up over 3% in the last 1 month. With a 24% increase in the past year and a 30% year-to-date increase, silver prices have risen to their highest level in over 13 years. Silver prices will rise by 5% to $40 over the short term, and by 13% to $43 over the next 6-12 months, according to Citi projections.

according to Citi analysts, it is ‘not just a catch-up trade to gold,’ but also reflects solid silver fundamentals. Silver, a crucial industrial commodity and monetary asset, is playing an increasingly significant role in solar power, electronics, and electrification, accounting for over half of global demand.

Citi is not as bullish on gold’s future, which has risen by more than 27% in 2025 due to robust central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund inflows.Back in June, Citibank predicted that following a record-breaking gain, the price of gold is expected to reverse shortly and in the upcoming quarters, gold will drop below $3,000.

In India, silver traded at ₹119 per gram and ₹1,19,000 per kilogram. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver touched a record high of ₹1,15,136 per kg in the previous session.

Globally, spot silver edged up 0.3% to $38.24 per ounce after hitting its highest level since September 2011 on Monday (July 14).

Weakness in the rupee also kept domestic prices elevated. If the rupee slides further against the dollar while global prices stay stable, silver will get more expensive for Indian buyers.

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International News

Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes

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Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.

  • Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
  • Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.

Technical Triggers

  • Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
  • Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level 
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $4600/oz
: $5000/oz
: Rs 153,000/10 gm
: Rs 160,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level 
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $75/oz
: $82/oz 
: Rs 235,000/kg
: Rs 260,000/kg  
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