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Silver prices to rise beyond $40/oz: Citigroup

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Citigroup analysts expect silver prices to rise beyond $40 per ounce in the coming months as physical supplies tighten and investment demand grows. Analysts at Citigroup increased their three-month silver price forecast from $38 to $40 in a report recently. The gold-silver ratio has been flashing a breakout signal in silver prices.

Silver currently trades at $38, up over 3% in the last 1 month. With a 24% increase in the past year and a 30% year-to-date increase, silver prices have risen to their highest level in over 13 years. Silver prices will rise by 5% to $40 over the short term, and by 13% to $43 over the next 6-12 months, according to Citi projections.

according to Citi analysts, it is ‘not just a catch-up trade to gold,’ but also reflects solid silver fundamentals. Silver, a crucial industrial commodity and monetary asset, is playing an increasingly significant role in solar power, electronics, and electrification, accounting for over half of global demand.

Citi is not as bullish on gold’s future, which has risen by more than 27% in 2025 due to robust central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund inflows.Back in June, Citibank predicted that following a record-breaking gain, the price of gold is expected to reverse shortly and in the upcoming quarters, gold will drop below $3,000.

In India, silver traded at ₹119 per gram and ₹1,19,000 per kilogram. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver touched a record high of ₹1,15,136 per kg in the previous session.

Globally, spot silver edged up 0.3% to $38.24 per ounce after hitting its highest level since September 2011 on Monday (July 14).

Weakness in the rupee also kept domestic prices elevated. If the rupee slides further against the dollar while global prices stay stable, silver will get more expensive for Indian buyers.

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International News

Precious Metals Bounce Back As Iran Ceasefire Hopes Rise, But Fed Rate Fears Loom: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Gold Remains Under Short-term Pressure from Expectations of Fed Tightening and a Strong Dollar. However, Investor Positioning in Gold Looks Relatively Light After Months of ETF Outflows.

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Price MovementGold has bounced back from its key support levels near $3960, and Silver has recovered from $55, after an Iranian official reportedly received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire. The continuing US-Iran standoff has kept investors worried about energy-driven inflation and the possibility of further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a US rate hike in December, up sharply from 73% just a week earlier, based on the CME FedWatch tool.

Geopolitical Tensions – Despite the Houthis announcing fresh military action, both Tehran and Washington appear keen to restart talks and stop the escalating attacks that have nearly destroyed a fragile interim agreement reached last month. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire, aimed at rescuing the interim deal and eventually leading to a lasting peace agreement.

Macro-Economic SignalsGold remains under short-term pressure from expectations of Fed tightening and a strong dollar. However, investor positioning in gold looks relatively light after months of ETF outflows, meaning further price drops may be limited. Strong physical demand, especially from China, along with continued central bank buying, is providing solid support to the gold market.

Technical Triggers

If Gold fails to hold above $4,000 (~Rs.1,41,000), it could slide further to $3,900 (~Rs.1,38,000). But if it manages to stay above $4,200, a fresh rally could take it toward $4,500 (~Rs.1,55,000).

For Silver, a strong move above $63 (~Rs.2,35,000) could push prices toward $70–71 (~Rs.2,51,000–2,55,000). On the other hand, a fall below $55 (~Rs.2,14,000) may drag it down to $50 (~Rs.2,00,000).

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $3900/oz
: $4160/oz
: Rs 137,000/10 gm
: Rs 147,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $55/oz
: $63/oz  
: Rs 214,000/kg
: Rs 235,000/kg
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