• A truce agreement between Israel and Iran reduced the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven, causing gold to drop to about $3350. President Donald Trump declared late Monday that both countries had reached an agreement on a full ceasefire, with Iran initiating the truce right away and Israel following 12 hours later.
• Trump’s remarks followed Iran’s symbolic reprisal against a US military base in Qatar, of which no injuries were recorded.
• In the meantime, investors are keeping a tight eye on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who will appear before the US Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, for any clues about the direction of interest rates going forward.

Technical Triggers   

• This week, gold prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $3320 (~Rs 97000) and $3420 (~Rs 100,000); a breakout or a breakdown will provide a 2-3% rise or fall.
• Silver prices have retraced from their high; the next support is $35.50 (~Rs 105,300). Prices should sustain this support for the bull trend to continue. If this support is broken, the next downside level is $34.50 (~Rs 104,000). On the upside, prices can rise to $36.75 (~Rs 107,500).

Support and Resistance

Gold is trading at about $3375 (about Rs 97000) as investors keep a careful eye on the Middle East conflict that is getting worse after the US became involved in Israeli strikes on Iran. Over the weekend, US forces attacked Iran’s three primary nuclear installations, and President Donald Trump threatened to launch additional strikes if Tehran does not negotiate. The Israeli-Iranian conflict has given new impetus to a surge that has raised gold prices by about 30% this year.

Gold fell almost 1% on Monday after beginning the week under bearish pressure. Despite last weekend’s missile strike exchange between Iran and Israel, safe-haven flows did not control financial market activity. Due to global selloffs sparked by the growing Middle East war, investors also sold precious metals to offset losses elsewhere.

The US Federal Reserve also maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance and held interest rates unchanged last week, cautioning that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs may exacerbate inflation and make the outlook for the economy more complex. Trump, however, restated his demands that interest rates be lowered by 2.5 percentage points by the US Federal Reserve.

The Israeli military has reportedly hit around 20 targets in and around Tehran on the tenth day of the Israel-Iran conflict, including locations connected to Iran’s development of nuclear weapons and missiles. The confirmation of a significant discovery in Argentina—one of the biggest copper, gold, and silver deposits in three decades—that is believed to contain 13.2 million tons of copper and more than 80 million ounces of gold and silver combined put additional pressure on sentiment regarding the supply front.

Following a symmetrical triangle breakout last week, gold prices are consolidating at high levels. Bullish momentum should continue till gold prices are trading above $3300 (~Rs 96300). This week, prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $3320 (~Rs 97000) and $3420 (~Rs 100,000); a breakout or a breakdown will provide a 2-3% rise or fall.

Silver has finally given a breakout from its range – above $35 (~Rs 102,000) to trade at an all-time high of $37 (~Rs 107,000). The next target is $38 (~Rs 111,000), if this positive momentum continues above ATH, while support lies at $35.5 (~Rs 104,000).

This week, a number of Federal Reserve officials are due to address Congress. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify for two days, during which time the possible effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the attack on Iran are anticipated to be discussed.

• Precious metals have reversed as support from growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is offset by a stronger dollar overall and the possibility of fewer interest rate reductions from the US.
• Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites on Thursday, while Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones, including attacking an Israeli hospital overnight, escalating the Middle East crisis. Neither party has shown a plan to leave.
• President Donald Trump will put pressure on Tehran to engage in negotiations as he decides in the next two weeks whether the United States will intervene in the Israel-Iran air confrontation.
• Meanwhile, Trump restated his demands that interest rates be lowered by the Federal Reserve, stating that they should be 250bps lower.

Technical Triggers  

• Gold prices are consolidating around record-high levels in the range of $3360(~Rs 99000) and $3475(~Rs 101,000).
• Silver prices have retraced from its high, next support is $35.50 (~Rs 105,300). Prices should sustain this support for the bull trend to continue. If this support is broken, the next downside level is $34.50 (~Rs 104,000).

Support and Resistance