International News
Precious Metals retrace as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- A truce agreement between Israel and Iran reduced the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven, causing gold to drop to about $3350. President Donald Trump declared late Monday that both countries had reached an agreement on a full ceasefire, with Iran initiating the truce right away and Israel following 12 hours later.
- Trump’s remarks followed Iran’s symbolic reprisal against a US military base in Qatar, of which no injuries were recorded.
- In the meantime, investors are keeping a tight eye on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who will appear before the US Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, for any clues about the direction of interest rates going forward.
Technical Triggers
- This week, gold prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $3320 (~Rs 97000) and $3420 (~Rs 100,000); a breakout or a breakdown will provide a 2-3% rise or fall.
- Silver prices have retraced from their high; the next support is $35.50 (~Rs 105,300). Prices should sustain this support for the bull trend to continue. If this support is broken, the next downside level is $34.50 (~Rs 104,000). On the upside, prices can rise to $36.75 (~Rs 107,500).
Support and Resistance
| Category | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🌍 International Gold | $3,320 / oz | $3,420 / oz |
| 🇮🇳 Indian Gold | ₹97,000 / 10 gm | ₹100,000 / 10 gm |
| 🌍 International Silver | $35.50 / oz | $36.75 / oz |
| 🇮🇳 Indian Silver | ₹105,000 / kg | ₹107,500 / kg |
International News
Precious Metals Surge On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Geopolitical Optimism and Macro Shifts Drive Bullish Momentum
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
- Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.
Technical Triggers
- If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
- As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $70/oz : $82/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 257,000/kg |
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