• Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is trading below $4650 as investors evaluate ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the US–Iran conflict. The crisis has caused a significant energy supply disruption and heightened inflation concerns. Iran has proposed halting its operations in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a complete ceasefire and removal of the US blockade on Iranian ports.
• Geopolitical Developments – Tehran has submitted a new proposal to Washington via Pakistani intermediaries, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz conditional on the US lifting its blockade, while postponing discussions on its nuclear program. Washington remains skeptical and is likely to respond with counter-proposals in the near term. Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain the central point of disagreement between the two sides.
• Macro-economic Signals – Markets are also focused on upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Fed, ECB, and BOJ this week. Persistent energy price inflation, driven by Middle East tensions, has strengthened expectations that central banks may maintain or further raise interest rates. This monetary tightening outlook is exerting downward pressure on gold prices. 

Technical Triggers

• Gold has broken the important support of $4650 (~ Rs 151,000), the next target is $4550 (~ Rs 147,500).
• Silver is on the verge of breaking $73 (~ Rs 235,000). If prices sustain below this level, the next target is $70 (~ Rs 225,000).

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