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Precious metals refining  in crisis ; driven by rising  commodity prices, limited refining capacity, and tight credit

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The precious metals refining industry is in crisis as of January 30, 2026, due to skyrocketing commodity prices, limited refining capacity, and tight credit. Major refiners like Metalor and United Precious Metal Refining have halted new shipments, paused payments, and prioritized existing customers. This stems from a surge in trade-ins—gold hit $5,500/oz before dropping to $4,700/oz, silver reached $50/oz—overwhelming a shrunken U.S. capacity post-2019 closures of firms like Republic Metals.

Root Causes

High prices sparked massive investor and retail sell-offs of jewelry and scrap, tripling purchase volumes year-over-year. Structural bottlenecks persist: U.S. refineries, reduced to dozens, handle reservoir-scale inflows via “garden hose” infrastructure. Debt-financed models exacerbate issues—14-day processing cycles stretched to 60-90 days, payments from 48 hours to 14 days, exhausting credit lines amid doubled prices and interest costs. Banks hesitate to lend amid volatility, like gold’s $700 weekly plunge, making expanded operations unprofitable.

Key metrics

Key metrics underscore the acute strain on the precious metals refining sector: purchase volumes have surged to a 3x year-over-year increase, while gold prices have doubled over the same period; processing cycle times have ballooned from 14 days to 60-90 days, and payment cycles stretched from 48 hours to 14 days; silver recovery timelines now project 6-8 months to clear backlogs.

 Capacity expansion lags due to infrastructure, regulations, and training needs. Jewelry retailers suffer cash flow hits from delayed scrap payments, disrupting supply chains like pre-holiday rushes.

Market Outlook and Recovery

 Disruptions are seen as temporary liquidity crunches, not insolvency. Gold’s price retreat signals moderation; silver backlogs may take 6-8 months (e.g., Kitco halted silver buys). Stabilization should restore credit and operations, viewed as a historic event demanding better resilience.

Strategic Recommendations

  • Refiners: Enhance customer communication, optimize capital, plan long-term capacity. Retailers: Revise cash planning, diversify refiners, inform customers.
  • Stakeholders: View as manageable pause; track volatility and backlogs.

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Gemfields posts US$128.5 mn in auction revenues

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Gemfields Group Ltd. capped a pivotal 2025 by swinging its focus toward increased capacity, reporting $128.5 million in annual auction revenues as it nears the completion of a major capital expenditure cycle at its core African mines.

The colored-gemstone miner, known for its “mine-to-market” strategy, enters 2026 with a net debt position of $39.2 million. Management noted that this debt figure—recorded before $20.5 million in pending auction receivables—primarily reflects the final funding stages for the expansion of its flagship Montepuez Ruby Mining (MRM) operation in Mozambique.

Scaling the Ruby Ridge

The centerpiece of the company’s year-end operational update was the progress at Montepuez. Gemfields confirmed that its second processing plant at the site is currently in the “final commissioning stage.”

Perhaps more importantly for shareholders concerned with inflationary pressures, the company reported the facility was delivered “materially on budget.” Investors won’t have to wait long to see the impact on the bottom line:

  • First Production: Scheduled for immediate output.
  • Market Debut: Inventory from the new plant is slated for the February 2026 mixed-quality ruby auction.

Emeralds: High Quality and Higher Volume

In Zambia, operations at Kagem Mining showed a return to form following a strategic pivot in May 2025. After refocusing mining efforts on high-yield zones, premium emerald recoveries met internal targets.

The year was punctuated by the discovery of “Imboo,” a massive 11,685-carat emerald celebrated for its intense color. Beyond the “headline” stones, Gemfields boosted overall throughput by implementing a night shift at its upgraded processing plant, allowing the company to begin chipping away at historic stockpiles.

The Financial Outlook

While the $39.2 million net debt marks a transition from the company’s historically leaner balance sheet, analysts view the leverage as a temporary bridge to significantly higher production volumes. With the MRM plant coming online and Kagem’s upgraded processing capabilities, the company is positioning itself to capture a larger share of the luxury gemstone market in 2026.

Gemfields remains a bellwether for the colored-gemstone industry, which has seen volatile pricing but steady demand for high-quality, ethically sourced rubies and emeralds.

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