International News
Precious Metals climbs to fresh highs as Dollar weakens AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Gold’s break above $5200 and silver’s surge past $115 mark a decisive escalation in the precious metals rally, driven primarily by a sharp weakening of the US dollar and rising policy uncertainty.
- The dollar slipping to a four-year low, combined with slumping US consumer confidence and concerns over the labour market, has strengthened the case for defensive assets.
- President Trump’s signal that he is comfortable with a weaker dollar, along with expectations of rate cuts under a new Fed chair, has further reduced real yield support for the greenback.
- Added to this, tariff threats and perceived pressure on Fed independence have amplified geopolitical and policy risk premiums—firmly underpinning gold and silver prices.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has met its targets of $5200 and is moving towards $5300 (~ Rs.1,65,000). Strong support lies at $4,980–5,000, below which profit-booking could extend to $4,900 and $4,750.
- Silver is resuming higher towards $120 (~ Rs 390,000). Key support is seen at $103 (~ Rs.3,40,000); a break could lead to retracement towards $100 and $97.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $5000 / oz | $5300 / oz |
| Gold | India | ₹155,000 / 10 gm | ₹165,000 / 10 gm |
| Silver | International | $103 / oz | $120 / oz |
| Silver | India | ₹340,000 / kg | ₹390,000 / kg |
Safe Haven Dynamics – Gold and silver remain under pressure, hovering below key psychological levels of $5000 and $80 respectively, as investors stay cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Volatility in oil prices is complicating the inflation outlook, keeping real yields elevated and limiting upside in precious metals despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical Developments – Escalation in the US–Israel–Iran conflict, including strikes on energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has intensified supply concerns in oil markets. While such tensions typically support safe-haven demand, the inflationary impact of rising energy prices is delaying expectations of monetary easing, creating mixed signals for gold and silver.
Monetary Policy Stance – The Fed is expected to maintain a pause, reinforcing a “wait-and-watch” approach amid sticky inflation and a softening labor market. Similar policy stances by ECB, BoE, and BoJ indicate a synchronized global pause. The key trigger for metals will be forward guidance—any dovish tilt could revive bullish momentum.
Technical Triggers
Gold briefly broke the key $5000 (~Rs.157,000) support and short-term bias remains bearish, with strong support seen around $4850 (~Rs.150,000).
Silver has also slipped below $80 (~Rs.255,000), and a renewed break below $77 (~Rs.247,000) could trigger further profit-booking, dragging prices towards $70 (~₹230,000) in the near term.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $4850/oz | $5250/oz |
| Gold | Domestic | ₹158,500/10 gm | ₹165,000/10 gm |
| Silver | International | $77/oz | $85/oz |
| Silver | Domestic | ₹247,000/kg | ₹268,000/kg |
Source : AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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