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Gold slumps, as safe-haven demand wanes :AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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Gold saw a steep weekly loss of more than 4% last week, its most since November 2024, as it dropped toward $3180. Since its April peak of $3500, the precious metal has lost more than $300 as technical selling quickens and safe-haven demand wanes.

After the US and China agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days last week, risk sentiment improved. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions stayed low as India-Pakistan and Middle East threats stabilised. The first direct meetings between Ukrainian and Russian officials since 2022 were eventually held after a period of contradictory reports and diplomatic impasse.

Furthermore, following Friday’s market close, the Moody’s Ratings agency lowered the US’s sovereign debt credit rating. Citing unsustainable debt growth and growing interest rates, the agency downgraded U.S. debt from Aaa to Aa1. It changed its assessment of the United States from “negative” to “stable” at the same time. The US is dealing with growing debt finance costs that are significantly higher than those of comparable government debt loads, according to Moody’s. In particular, US interest obligations “that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns” were emphasised by Moody’s.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has strengthened market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing the dollar lower and reducing Treasury yields—factors that typically support non-yielding assets like gold. Caught between these opposing forces, gold prices may continue to face headwinds. However, significant losses below current levels appear unlikely, as despite recent optimism surrounding trade and geopolitics, uncertainty remains the dominant theme for market participants.

The market may take a wait-and-see stance due to changing investor attitudes in the global marketplace, which might cause gold prices to drop this week. This week’s selloff is the largest since mid-June 2021 and is marginally steeper than the November selloff following President Donald Trump’s election victory.

At this point, gold is rapidly losing money and appears to be about to experience another decline. Fears of a trade war, easing geopolitical tensions, and the Fed’s propensity to maintain its current monetary policy are all factors that are hurting the price of gold.

The yellow metal is still under pressure going into the weekend, according to technical analysis, trading close to $3180 after failing to hold above the key $3200 barrier. A possible trend reversal from April’s record highs is indicated by the bearish double top pattern visible on the daily chart. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3170 further supports the $3160–$3150 (~Rs 91500) support zone, which is in tight alignment with the pattern’s neckline. A clear breach below this range would pave the way for a more significant decline in the direction of the $3000 (~Rs 86000) handle.

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International News

Indian Jewellery Exporters Breathe Easy temporarily as US Court Blocks Tariff Rise

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In a significant development for Indian gem and jewellery exporters, a US Federal court has temporarily halted President Donald Trump’s proposed ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, which were set to substantially increase duties on imported goods, including jewellery. The ruling has been welcomed by the industry, which had been preparing for tariff increases from 6% to as high as 26%.

The Court of International Trade in Manhattan deemed the executive orders issued on April 2 as “unlawful.” These orders aimed to implement a 10% baseline tariff on most US imports, with even steeper rates for countries with substantial trade surpluses — including China, the European Union, and initially, India. The 26% tariff targeting Indian gem and jewellery exports was scheduled to take effect on April 9 but had been postponed to July 9 due to ongoing legal challenges.

According to a newspaper report, the proposed tariff hike would have had a severe financial impact on exporters. Jewellery manufacturers operating in SEEPZ, which account for 64% of India’s $3.5 billion in annual jewellery shipments to the US, would have seen upfront duties per million-dollar consignment jump from $60,000 to $320,000. This would have further strained their cash flows at a time when global demand remains weak.

While the court’s decision does not address all of the industry’s challenges, it provides crucial temporary relief and highlights the need for consistent trade policies to support India’s standing in the global gem and jewellery market.

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International News

Ruling court nullifies Trump tariffs – AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Gold stabilizes in a range as a court decision overturns Trump’s tariffs, increasing risk appetite and depressing the greenback. After the U.S. Court of International Trade determined on Wednesday that Trump had overreached himself by using emergency powers to impose high tariffs on the majority of the nation’s trading partners, gold prices rose.
  • On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial update on the country’s first-quarter economic growth. According to the agency, the US GDP decreased by 0.2% over that time, which was less than the 0.4% decline that was anticipated and less than the 0.3% decline that the bureau had initially projected.
  • While acknowledging certain stagflation concerns, policymakers pointed out that the Committee may have to make tough trade-offs if inflation turns out to be more persistent and growth and employment prospects deteriorate.

Technical Triggers  

  • Gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $3270 (~Rs 95000) and $3370 (~Rs 96400) in the near term. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 2-3% movement.
  • Silver prices are expected to trade in the range of $32.5(~Rs 96000) and $34(~Rs 99000) in the near term.

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International News

Swarovski Names Kolja Kiofsky as Chief Commercial Officer, Effective January 2026

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Swarovski has announced the promotion of Kolja Kiofsky to Chief Commercial Officer, effective January 2026. Currently serving as General Manager of North America, Kiofsky will take over from Michele Molon, who is set to depart in July 2025 for a new opportunity.

In his new role, Kiofsky will lead Swarovski’s global commercial operations, overseeing omni-channel strategy, global sales, commercial architecture, and real estate. He will relocate from New York to the company’s corporate headquarters in Männedorf, Switzerland, and report directly to CEO Alexis Nasard.

Kolja Kiofsky’s promotion to chief commercial officer marks an exciting new chapter for Swarovski. Kolja’s leadership and strategic vision have been pivotal in driving growth and transformation in North America,” said Nasard.

“At the same time, Swarovski extends its heartfelt gratitude to Michele Molon for his outstanding contributions and dedication to our company and brand. Michele leaves with a strong business and organizational legacy.”

Until Kiofsky assumes the role in January, Ilse Roeffen, Head of Emerging Markets and Businesses, will serve as interim Chief Commercial Officer.

Reacting to the announcement, Kiofsky said, “I’m incredibly honored and excited to step into the role of chief commercial officer after 15 amazing years with Swarovski. This company has been a huge part of my professional journey, and I’m proud to have the opportunity to contribute to its legacy of innovation, craftsmanship and excellence. I want to extend my sincere gratitude to Michele Molon who has been not only a brilliant leader but also a true partner and mentor throughout the years. I look forward to building on the strong foundation he laid and driving our commercial strategy into its next phase.”

The promotion comes as Swarovski reported a 6% increase in revenue in 2024, reaching €1.906 billion—signaling strong momentum for the heritage crystal brand.

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