International News
Gold slips below $3300 on de-escalation of tariff war: AUGMONT BULLION WEEKLY BLOG
After the Federal Reserve reaffirmed that it is not in a rush to cut interest rates since the U.S. economy is still relatively steady and inflation concerns are still high, gold’s price action last week was comparatively neutral.
In recent weeks, the Greenback has recovered after dropping almost 9% from its March peak and momentarily falling below 98 last month. The US-China trade rhetoric has been cooling, which has been a major factor in the recovery. This weekend’s meeting between US and Chinese officials in Switzerland could have immediate effects.
The United States and China declared “significant progress” following two days of negotiations in Switzerland to defuse a trade war. A trade deal with China was reached after two days of talks in Geneva, according to top Trump administration officials. This might be a huge win for President Donald Trump in his trade war with Beijing. Trump indicated a readiness to reduce U.S. tariffs on China to 80% going into the weekend trade talks, but it was unclear at first if either side would agree to decrease taxes on the other.
Trade discussions with US officials are “an important first step” in stabilising bilateral trade relations, according to China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng. The two parties also achieved “substantial progress,” according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. However, traders will watch the contents of the US-China trade discussions, which the US will provide on Monday.
In April, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold stockpiles by 2 tonnes for the sixth consecutive month, according to the World Gold Council. While the Czech National Bank’s reserves rose by 2.5 tonnes in April, the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) holdings jumped by 12 tonnes to 509 tonnes.
| Condition | Price Level (USD) | Price Level (INR) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rally shows signs of exhaustion | ~$3400 | ~₹97,000 | Gains paused twice; short-term rally may be nearing exhaustion |
| Price remains below resistance this week | <$3365 | <₹94,000 | Potential drop towards $3200 (~₹92,000) |
| Price breaks and holds below neckline support (Double Top) | <$3200 | <₹92,000 | Expected decline of $200 towards $3000 (~₹86,000) |
| Market relief (e.g., easing tensions or tariff reductions) | – | – | Sellers may temporarily regain control |
International News
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Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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