International News
Gold slips below $3300 on de-escalation of tariff war: AUGMONT BULLION WEEKLY BLOG
After the Federal Reserve reaffirmed that it is not in a rush to cut interest rates since the U.S. economy is still relatively steady and inflation concerns are still high, gold’s price action last week was comparatively neutral.
In recent weeks, the Greenback has recovered after dropping almost 9% from its March peak and momentarily falling below 98 last month. The US-China trade rhetoric has been cooling, which has been a major factor in the recovery. This weekend’s meeting between US and Chinese officials in Switzerland could have immediate effects.
The United States and China declared “significant progress” following two days of negotiations in Switzerland to defuse a trade war. A trade deal with China was reached after two days of talks in Geneva, according to top Trump administration officials. This might be a huge win for President Donald Trump in his trade war with Beijing. Trump indicated a readiness to reduce U.S. tariffs on China to 80% going into the weekend trade talks, but it was unclear at first if either side would agree to decrease taxes on the other.
Trade discussions with US officials are “an important first step” in stabilising bilateral trade relations, according to China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng. The two parties also achieved “substantial progress,” according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. However, traders will watch the contents of the US-China trade discussions, which the US will provide on Monday.
In April, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold stockpiles by 2 tonnes for the sixth consecutive month, according to the World Gold Council. While the Czech National Bank’s reserves rose by 2.5 tonnes in April, the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) holdings jumped by 12 tonnes to 509 tonnes.
| Condition | Price Level (USD) | Price Level (INR) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rally shows signs of exhaustion | ~$3400 | ~₹97,000 | Gains paused twice; short-term rally may be nearing exhaustion |
| Price remains below resistance this week | <$3365 | <₹94,000 | Potential drop towards $3200 (~₹92,000) |
| Price breaks and holds below neckline support (Double Top) | <$3200 | <₹92,000 | Expected decline of $200 towards $3000 (~₹86,000) |
| Market relief (e.g., easing tensions or tariff reductions) | – | – | Sellers may temporarily regain control |
International News
Precious Metals Bounce Back As Iran Ceasefire Hopes Rise, But Fed Rate Fears Loom: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Remains Under Short-Term Pressure From Expectations Of Fed Tightening and A Strong Dollar. However, Investor Positioning In Gold Looks Relatively Light After Months Of ETF Outflows,
Price Movement – Gold has bounced back from its key support levels near $3960, and Silver has recovered from $55, after an Iranian official reportedly received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire. The continuing US-Iran standoff has kept investors worried about energy-driven inflation and the possibility of further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a US rate hike in December, up sharply from 73% just a week earlier, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
Geopolitical Tensions – Despite the Houthis announcing fresh military action, both Tehran and Washington appear keen to restart talks and stop the escalating attacks that have nearly destroyed a fragile interim agreement reached last month. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire, aimed at rescuing the interim deal and eventually leading to a lasting peace agreement.
Macro-Economic Signals – Gold remains under short-term pressure from expectations of Fed tightening and a strong dollar. However, investor positioning in gold looks relatively light after months of ETF outflows, meaning further price drops may be limited. Strong physical demand, especially from China, along with continued central bank buying, is providing solid support to the gold market.
Technical Triggers
If Gold fails to hold above $4,000 (~Rs 1,41,000), it could slide further to $3,900 (~Rs 1,38,000). But if it manages to stay above $4,200, a fresh rally could take it toward $4,500 (~Rs 1,55,000).
For Silver, a strong move above $63 (~Rs 2,35,000) could push prices toward $70–71 (~Rs 2,51,000–2,55,000). On the other hand, a fall below $55 (~Rs 2,14,000) may drag it down to $50 (~Rs 2,00,000).
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $3900/oz : $4160/oz : Rs 137,000/10 gm : Rs 147,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $55/oz : $63/oz : Rs 214,000/kg : Rs 235,000/kg |
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